The eminent military historian John Keegan doesn’t think the US will attack Iraq sooner than early next year, unless some actual American divisions get into place with unusual speed.

Keegan, author of essential books like The Face of Battle (which you should read), isn’t infallible—in the days immediately after 9/11, Teresa noticed him demonstrating some cluelessness about how this Internet thing works— but when he’s on his game, he’s very good indeed. (Link thanks to Bruce Rolston of Flit, who is often interesting on military affairs himself.) [03:00 PM]