The administration's logic since the OBL Tape came out has been...tortured, I suppose would be a good word. I get the feeling that, if OBL had sung the praises of Jack the Ripper in the tape, the administration would now be insisting that we invade London's West End.

"...an unstable secular dictator whose wholly illegitimate government will crumble within six weeks in the face of the largest global military action since World War II."

Unless, of course, said dictator has been boning up on the tactics of Gen. Paul Van Riper, USMC, and manages to drag out the conflict a teeny bit longer than six weeks by sinking a few of our carriers.

But, as Ethel Merman sang, "There's NO confidence like O-verconfidence..."

Hal -- that's a fascinating report. Reminds me of the story that the Japanese wargamed Midway beforehand, and cheated when none of the paths they could find led to victory; has anyone seen solid info on this?

I find that very hard to believe. The US won at Midway through a combination of superior cryptanaylsis (which the Japanese did not suspect, and so could not have factored into their wargames), and astounding good luck. Midway was an ambush; only if the gamers had run ambush scenarios would there have been a question of losing at all.