All I see is three whackjobs on the bench in exchange for no nukes this time.

I'd love to be convinced I'm wrong, though.

I will note that I don't think Frist has the power, by himself, to make very many Senators' careers "die horribly." Frist is a vehicle of others' agendas, not really a very effective actor in his own right.

None of which is meant to conclusively gainsay sennoma's overall point, a conclusion I'm alternately drawn to and repelled from.

Does one not, er, crank (or something) bullets into the breech of at least some types of gun? That was the metaphor I was after, Frist firing nutjob judges at the Dems. There is no breach that I can think of into which to crank said nutjobs.

My bad, nonetheless, since my meaning was obviously not clear.

And you're not making me feel better, Patrick. I want to be wrong about this.

Particularly since he's not (at this moment) planning to run for the Senate again when his term expires. At that point he becomes just one candidate in what's probably a wide-open Republican primary season. For the first time in years they don't have an anointed one ready to go.

"into the breech" -- 295,000 results

"into the breach" -- 9,270,000 results

The general sense of the phrase is to put something into a gap or hole, like a breach in the enemy's line. Yes?

I've even seen people call for *Frist's* ouster as majority leader over this.

I thought Jeb was being groomed as the next Great White Hope.

Yes; like I said, my bad. I wasn't mangling the famous phrase but failing to realise that it would confuse my attempted imagery. If I'd known anything about guns I'd have said "into the magazine" or wherever it is one loads bullets, and then none of this would have happened.

I says it as shouldn't, but is that like a Google plebiscite?

I had the definite impression that the fates of the entire 10 nominees have already been sealed among the 14. If true, I suppose we will have our definition of EC sometime in the future.

Though I should note that I don't really think any EC Standard has actually been established. I think EC is used here as a cover for already existing agreements among the 14.

Or, I am wrong about all of it.

And Graham (R-SC, and one of the 14 in question) was apparently hinting strongly that one of the Odious Three wouldn't pass the up-or-down. Getting dizzier...

But you probably all read Atrios already, so hey.

Heh. It feels like Rome around here.

If that's how Senator Reid is thinking of the problem, and if that's how the compromisers are thinking of the problem, then this might be a good thing, in some other world where the problem was fundamentally a matter of political differences.

In the general case, all of the Senate manoeuvring is superfluous; in the absence of fair elections, and in the presence of primarily Dominionist money backing the vote counting machines, there will eventually be a theocratic regime in the United States.

Since defeat is something that happens inside people's heads -- it's distinct from death that way -- and since the Dominionists will not give up for any reason short of direct orders by an incarnate god (and probably not then), this isn't fundamentally a political problem.

The Rule of Law only works when enough people agree that the benefits outweight the costs of losing; it doesn't work well at all when there are a lot of politically active people who consider the benefits -- equality before the law, tolerance, politics played for prestige, rather than lives, no ruling by decree -- to be actively negative things, to be done away with as soon as possible.

The social problem of what constitutes legitimacy, and why it's important to have the Supreme Court judges say that it's legal to require women to bear children inside Christian marriage, no option, even that is really secondary; this is the authoritarian demand for control of the mechanisms of authority, not a calculated drive to co-opt the existing mechanisms of legitimacy in service of a theocratic agenda.

I think Avram has it right - it's only a matter of time before the whole story gets replayed and another bad compromise is reached. This sort of weakness bodes poorly for the next election cycle. If the Dems don't show some backbone, the GOP will eventually have 60 seats in the Senate and no further compromises will be necessary.

Of course, if one is arguing from the assumption that the Republic is already dead and all that's left is to hold the wake and go home, then what the hell. Strike a noble pose, and burn the whole place down with the barbarians inside.

This sounds awfully appealing...

I've swung back and forth between monkey crap and it-could-be-worse at least twelve times today. Guess that means I haven't made up my mind yet.

Debra, I think it's unfair to characterize those questioning the deal as "wrapping themselves in the mantle of righteousness." The questions being raised have to do with utility, pure and simple, not "righteousness."

I mean, I've spent much of my political life trying to convince maximalists of the case for pragmatic politics. But in this case I'm having a hard time seeing what the praxis of the people claiming to be pragmatists actually gains.

Michael, O sensible person, that remark about cities is perhaps the silliest thing I've ever seen you post. Exactly how many Senators do Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston control? While we're on the subject, how many units of the United States Army? The Air Force?

The American system of governance deliberately cripples the political power of cities--and, not incidentally, appropriates their wealth and redistributes it to rural idiots. This has been true since 1789. It's one of those ground-level facts of American political life.

Do you think the city of New York would sit still for, as Graydon says, requiring "women to bear children inside Christian marriage, no option"?

If somebody wants to explain to me how they are going to manage that in a country this size with so many people, especially in the cities, unwilling to put up with that, then I'll be glad to stop being silly.

This of course has disturbing implications in a political system that's still in theory a democracy, since open elections always imply the possibility that the incumbents will be turfed out.

Breaking one of the Senate's longstanding procedural mechanisms is disturbing in much the same way. The Senate is an expert system with complex interdependencies. If you're a senator looking forward to what you hope will be a long senatorial career, you know that a maneuver like the filibuster, which this year is more useful to one party, is inevitably going to be more useful to another party further on down the road. Heaven knows the Republicans have used the filibuster often enough themselves.

The only logical explanation I can see is that the people pushing for this change don't anticipate the long-term continuation of the Senate in its current form.

The same goes for the Republicans shutting Democratic legislators out of committee positions. If we had a functional national press, they'd have been screaming about that one, because it was an unprecedented power grab. Previously, you didn't shut the opposing party out of committee positions because you knew someday they'd come back into power, and when that happened it would be a good idea for them to know what was going on. Also, it meant that when the other guys came back into power (which eventually they always do), you yourself wouldn't be shut out of the action.

Even if I were a hardline Republican, I'd know the people who are doing this aren't on my side. It doesn't matter which policies are in theory being furthered. In a democracy, modifications to the basic system are a matter for clearly identified public debate, not privately-funded astroturf and plots hatched in secret.

They're going to do their best to get the Army, and whatever other citizens they can inspire to the task, to beat or shoot whomever will not obey, of course.

I don't think they'll necessarily succeed, but a decade and a half of steadily escalating eliminationist rhetoric isn't the sort of thing which happens by accident. (David Niewart's Orcinus at least used to be in the sidebar links, and he's done a lot of documenting of that rhetoric.)

Also, if the industrial and post-industrial economy has utterly collapsed, they can fall back on the good old traditional 'behave and get fed' version of social control. That one works pretty well.

So do a lot of things that aren't being done in Iraq because the US Army is fundamentally a war fighting organization, a tool for creating shock and psychological dislocation as much as destruction. Note that Rumsfeld seems determined, starting with Pentagon purges of senior leadership and continuing on through brigade organizations which basically make no sense from a power projection standpoint, to change this.

Okay, so what you are talking about is complete collapse and civil war, in which case I will propose to you that there is nothing restraining anybody anymore. In that case -- and I can only speak for New York here, other cities will have to look out for themselves -- Governor Spitzer calls out the New York State National Guard to defend the state, and its greatest city. A call goes out from the good people of New York for aid from Canada and the European Union and, hell, we might as well throw Japan in there. They like New York.

I mean, there's a difference between the country going conservative and the country descending into Civil War. What you are talking about is something different than what's going on in this country at the moment.

And, I just want to make clear... nobody has to tell me things are dangerous right now. I'm the guy who's looking into stashing money overseas, as an act of prudence.

I also want to make clear that I believe that this is a very large country with power distributed among 50 states. It's true the bastards can take over the Imperial Capital. That does not mean they can rule an unwilling country, especially one as large and diverse as this one, with its power spread out between the 50 states.

Sure, if we are talking complete collapse, then anything could happen. But you aren't going to end up with a monolithic United States of Christian America. I don't know what you are going to end up with, but it isn't going to be that.

Meanwhile, I refer you to Teresa's observations. These people aren't behaving like they expect to ever lose power. Teresa has been making this point since November 2000 and I have yet to see anyone refute it (as opposed to ignoring it).

Graydon: The excellent Orcinus certainly is linked to from the blog you're reading right now. Don't your mighty open-source browsers have Find?

And they respond, "Sorry, we're busy over here in Iraq."

Well, on the one hand, what Teresa says makes a certain amount of sense. On the other hand, you can account for their indifference to looking toward the future (when they are out of power) as simple arrogance, incompetence, and stupidity.

These people fought for 30 years to get into power, and once they got it they cannot resist the urge to go mad with it. That could be for the reasons Teresa suggests, or it could be they are just idiots. They can believe they will never lose power all they want. A lot of people throughout history have thought that. None of them were ever right. I grant the point that very few of them were actually voted out of power. But I won't grant the point that it is somehow too late to vote these clowns out of power.

And I say that even though I follow closely Avedon's excellent work on the whole voting machines issue, and I grant it's very scary.

And they respond, "Sorry, we're busy over here in Iraq."

Along with the rest of the Army that is supposed to invade and hold NYC.

As a general historical thumb rule, it takes a committed 10% of the population to hold the rest down, provided there isn't active starvation or other sources of convulsive unrest. (Starvation isn't actually a reliable source of convulsive unrest, and religion has worked historically a few times, but neither is anything to count on.)

The Dominionists have -- by that value of committed -- about 20% of the American population. That's plenty much enough.

And, you know, you're right, we do like New York. But probably not enough to enter into a nuclear war with the Dominionists.

Which is what it would take to support any part of the US seceding; a lot of these folks are Neo-Confederates with serious 'admit we're good people and our slave-holding ancestors, too' issues.

The core issue is what confers the legitimacy to govern; the founding principle of the United States says 'consent of the governed'. The political movement which has taken over the Republican party is pushing 'anointed by God' as the basis for political legitimacy; this is in some sense a cynical ploy from the viewpoint of the very top leadership, but it is entirely sincerely held as a belief at the party operative level. That kind of thing is awfully hard to keep a lid on once it becomes a widespread internalized belief.

Sure I've got find. (Three and a half flavours of same.) What I didn't have was an open tab with Making Light's front page, and it's ever so much easier to go 'copy link address' on the appropriate book mark to get the href value, and waffle a bit about one's memory of the sidebar links, than to open a new tab and load something in it.

Okay, fine. That's the last of your Canola oil I buy.

As for your 10% or 20% controlling everybody else, okay, I'll take your word on it as a general historical principle. I just don't see it working in this country, is all. I mean, Kansas and whatever piece of that 10% or 20% it constitutes can pretty much eat me, here on 14th Street.

Your analysis of the effort to morph "consent of the governed" into "anointed by God" is correct, I think, but it ultimately won't work here. Or, if it does, then we're back to this not being the U.S. anymore, in which case we are just talking nightmare visions of the future. And, oh, I got plenty of those. They just don't happen to be yours.

I haven't seen any good political news (except on the local level) in months.

I took the opportunity to ask Charles Rangel (D-NY) if he sees a way back from where we are. He thought there was, but he, who fought for Civil Rights in the darkest days, didn't seem sure. I, for whom this is the worst I've ever seen, don't see a way back. They don't think they'll ever be out of power ever again, and I'm not sure anymore they're wrong; I always thought Teresa was right about what they believed, but I was always sure that they were wrong, that one day the wheel would turn and they'd get their comeuppance.

Now, I suspect they may be right, either because of manueverings or because the world has shifted, and the Enlightenment (big E) has ended.

If the feds put the financial thumbscrews on hospitals that don't follow Dominionist guidelines, a whole lot of treatment options not only won't be available; they won't even be mentioned. I don't know about the corporate ownership of firms that manufacture over-the-counter contraceptive supplies, but I know there aren't many companies in that business. I wouldn't bet they're immune to political pressure.

Thank goodness Planned Parenthood is privately funded.

These guys are going after mechanisms of social control. For instance, if they genuinely wanted to reduce the incidence of abortion and unwanted teen pregnancy, they'd support birth control education, which they don't. If on the other hand you want to make women less uppity, fear of unplanned pregnancy is a great way to do it.

I firmly believe there's a correlation between the advent of reliable and widely available contraception, and even more of one with access to abortion, and the loss of turf suffered by those light-in-the-upper-window gothic romances best characterized as "boy gets girl, girl gets really big house." Right around the time Roe vs. Wade was decided, those novels began to be supplanted on the paperback racks by bodice-rippers starring sexually active heroines who got out there and seized control of their own destinies.

In the older gothic romances, even a heroine with a nominally successful career will generally toss it aside in favor of wuv, twoo wuv, in the form of marriage to a wealthy man. It made sense at the time. A career is a much less attractive gamble if at any point over a twenty-year period you can get shot down by an unplanned pregnancy. Access to abortion changes that. Doesn't mean you like the idea. But you conduct your life more boldly if you know it's an option, because you're not risking catastrophe if you don't have your fallback position already in place.

Why did the sedate Fifties explode into the freewheeling Sixties? An overall rise in income had a lot to do with it. Turns out that as soon as people have resources to spare, they start getting up to all kinds of weird stuff.

I'm convinced that social control is a lot of the motivation behind the attack on Social Security. It's a lot easier to be brave and independent and entrepreneurial if there isn't a little voice in your head telling you that if you screw up, you'll die in a poorhouse. That goes double if you're female, or a person of color, or a member of some other deprecated category. Reinstating the fear of an impoverished old age would do wonders to clear the field for well-funded white guys with good connections, and thin out those pesky innovators who do so much to make life less predictable for large corporations.

When they think about consequences of their actions they may tell themselves that: 1) the target ("bank") won't really be harmed. They're heros protecting their class interests, 2) they can brazen their way out of anything, 3) if/when they actually lose power, they can buy their way out of prosecution. It won't happen to them. They're too big/special/on a mission from God.

Here's the thing, though. I don't think the Republican Senators have much use for Frist, and I'm increasingly thinking they don't have much use for the White House. They've been bombarded with demands to ignore their states and their voters, with nothing offered in return but the possibility that they won't be hung out to dry by the White House and the leadership, unless of course the White House and the leadership decide that there's some short-term advantage to hanging them out to dry.

What do these people have to offer moderates? If they play ball like perfect little minions they're still going to have primary challengers representing the far right trying to throw them out of office, and they're losing their crossover voters in droves.

If the leftward-most Republican Senators stay in line, they're screwed. If they move to something approaching the center, they've insulated themselves from the really astonishing unpopularity their party is gathering these days.

Besides, they're Senators. They like being Senators. Being a Senator means something. Being a Senator won't mean much when the Senate is an indefinitely-defined arm of the Executive Branch.

McCain is, I think, the most interesting case. He's clearly a yellow-dog Republican, and he's swallowed an awful lot of shit in the service of his party lately, but it's seemed to me more and more that he's starting to believe that the interests of the Republican party and the interests of the current leadership of the Republican party are different interests.

Also he's a man for the main chance, and the main chance for anyone who's not George Pataki or Jeb Bush is for the current leadership not to be in a position to impose a leader on the party when Bush leaves (crossesfingersprays)

Of course, if there's one thing I've learned in the last five years, it's that every time I think there's a downside limit to my disgust with these people something happens to move it lower. I wouldn't put it past them to be pulling a fast one.

It does seem to me, though, that in this case their own instincts for self-protection and their great and abiding love of their own importance make this an entirely reasonable thing for them to do, on their terms.

It's a pretty compelling argument, I think, but then the folks who supported the war thought they had one too. I'm not at all happy looking at the list of people whose opinions I really respect who disagree with me on this.

Still, those Senators are marked now. They're not going to get any mercy on the right.

I don't really see any of them as the self-sacrificing kind.

Except it's still here. That's because for 200 years people like us have been fighting to keep it around. It helps to be reminded you have philosophical ancestors in this fight. They do their best in this country to scrub our history of our philosophical ancestors, but if you read that book you will be surprised how many of the names you recognize.

And by how many you don't.

They want you to think you don't have any ancestors in this fight. You most definitely do. The fight has a long and glorious history, and you are being called to it right now, just like the rest of us.

Well, except it's past my bedtime so I'm retiring to behind the lines for now.

Oh, and Liberals of Religion will love that book too. In case anybody was wondering.

The fact is that on the substance, this deal is a compromise that cuts both ways. That's what compromises usually do. But for Democrats, who have virtually no power anyway, it is as important to be seen as strong and resolute as it is to actually win. The game we are really playing is for 2006. Because let's face it, this is a Republican majority government and they can, if they really want to, do any damned thing they please whether we like it or not.

The far right and religious fanatic base is not going to convert to the Democratic party. We need to prove to the moderates, independents and western libertarians that we are tough enough. If James Dobson and Rush Limbaugh want to portray us as dragon slayers, more power to them. They have a big microphone. Let them use it to shout to the world about the big meanie Dems and the sniveling cowardly Republicans who buckled under to them. Works for me.

the voting machines with the unverifiable results are malice, and not stupidity.

Yes, it'd be more comfortable if we were seeing a combination of arrogance and stupidity, rather than ruthlessness and brutality not co-operating ideally in groups, but it isn't stupidity.

There you go--my future in the glue factory is assured.

Debra, Patrick couldn't possibly have had the townsfolk of Colebrook in mind when he said that. Last I looked, the place is full of sturdily self-sufficient people who nevertheless understand themselves to be in a state of necessary cooperation with their neighbors.

I suspect he was thinking of the kind of rural idiots we see a lot of back home, who rant on and on about freeloaders living on government subsidies, while they themselves are the recipients of federal subsidies for everything from the freeways that make their leapfrogging subdivisions possible, to their water priced at a tiny fraction of its actual cost.

To me, that's a win.

Had frist pushed the nuclear option button before the deal was made, he would have rammed Brown and Owen into court, cast himself as the knight against the democratic "obstructionist" dragon, and won the votes of the religious right (and their money), and still appeal to moderate republican voters.

That we end up with a vote on Brown and Owen anyway is not any more of a loss than it would have been.

It sucks, but the brutal, hard logic of game theory says this was the best way to see Brown and Owen get a vote. (alien abduction of several key players for anal experiments being ruled out as an unrealistic option, of course)

Teresa, I think you discussion of social control is right on the mark; I would call it an authoritarian streak. In broad outline, I think it is accurate to say that these people intend to establish an aristocratic elite in the USA.

I think Cheney sees himself as a clerk doing necessary evil to protect the interests of his class. The "bank executive jiggering the books" thing is a metaphor that I'd apply to their attempts to cover their tracks after making stupid, impulsive decisions. I think the component of "we want what we want when we want it -- oops" is larger than "think of a boot stamping on the face of humanity, forever." Either way, they're committing heinous crimes -- so second-guessing their motivation may be irrelevant. But I'm skeptical about making them into Sith Lords to explain what they do.

Bush's rationale for his Social Security plan, for instance, might be explained as a panic reaction to his dawning awareness that he's run up a 6 trillion dollar debt. And he doesn't want to reimburse the Social Security trust fund for all the money he's looted out of it. This seems, to me, to be a more believable explanation for his actions than the notion of a plan with the explicit goal of crippling American small business -- written by three guys wearing hoods. Most of the financial policies of the Bush administration ultimately entail crippling consequences -- but I'm not sure they tell themselves that that's why they're doing it.

That and the fact that I could bring some muffins to the new neighbor without being asked if I was with a religious cult.

As I keep saying, I think the real division in politics is between people who'd rather be relatively prosperous members of a prosperous society, and people who'd rather be one of the few prosperous members of a poorer society. I'm happy if we all grow richer together, even if it means that some people use their prosperity to engage in all kinds of unimaginable hijinks.

What I've gradually come to accept, and it's taken some doing, is that there are people who think otherwise. I'm not sure why they do. I just know they exist.

I refer you to Teresa's observations. These people aren't behaving like they expect to ever lose power. Teresa has been making this point since November 2000 and I have yet to see anyone refute it (as opposed to ignoring it).

Yeah, I know, and mostly it terrifies me because she's right. But then I remember I teach their kids and I'm seeing a lot of them reading some things that mommy and daddy wouldn't approve, and it gives me a little bit of hope.

On the other hand, I just had a confessed plagiarizer ask me for a Law school recommendation. I said "Yeah, sure. I'll write a letter."

But was it an original letter? I would be sooo tempted to put something in there that would warn them off.

As for these people not expecting to lose power, I have to think that Dominionism explains most or all of it. If you honestly thought that the world was going to end in the next few years, is there any good reason not to run up the credit card balance?

I wrote a letter that did exactly what the prompt asked me to do; describe my experience with the student, my opinion of his ability and likelihood of success in law school as his contribution to society as an attorney.

None were what I'd call positive.

Or to help armageddon along, in God's name of course. The recent news about bullying evangelical chaplains at the USAF academy makes me wonder about the men and women who are responsible for our nuclear arsenal. Or at least for the delivery mechanisms. Technically, I think the bombs belong to the Department of Energy.

If there's a difference between your Hayden posts and your Haydent posts, I'm too dense to discern it.

On paper, the right to filibuster exist -- but.

The deal, assuming both sides hold, requires this:

If the GOP 7 agree that "Extraordinary Circumstances" exists, they'll not vote for cloture or the nuclear option.

If the GOP 7 do not, the Dem 7 are required to vote for cloture.

Before deal, it took 40 Senators agreeing to stop a nomination.

After deal, it takes all the Democrats, plus the GOP 7 (or lose on and the Independant) to stop a nomination. The only difference between this and outright voting the nominee down is a scant of political cover for the GOP 7.

Now, the 14 are talking a social security deal, lead by Lindsey Graham.

So. What this deal really means: Ried and Company can go home. They've been made redundant. The power in the senate is shared between the Frist GOP and the dealmaking 14.

Rove just got his biggest Christmas Present ever: Democratic Cover for Social Security reform *and* just about carte blanche judical approval.

Frist now gets to use the fact that some judges may not get approved as a bully pulpit during the 2006 elections, and the Freepers/Theocrats will be that much more fired up. The unholy alliance between them holds. Frist also doesn't take the heat for breaking the rules, not that his core would care about such.

The filibuster has as much power as the Queen's Assent: It hold power only as long as it isn't used. If it is used without approval, it will be removed.

I can see the hooded figure of Rove enthroned, starting out the window now, saying to Cheney "It all goes as I have forseen."

Funny, I would say almost exactly the opposite.

Sometimes you scare me. I live in Missouri, which some folks here may know is planning on getting rid of all medicaid, as well as all child abuse intake centers (yep, all of them) and other social services. Our roads are so bad in my city that rickety metal plates cover deep gaping holes on major roads. It took a special bill to fund repairs--there just was no other money. One year, I lost *both* axels to potholes. Our local schools waffle between acredidation and unaccredidation; the feds threaten to take them over from time to time.

Missouri does what it has to do to cover what it can. If the feds said no more birth control, we'd do it. I'm not saying I agree with Missouri's choices of priorities (I'd prefer a tax increase) but boy can I see how we're ripe to fall. I offer this as food for thought for those who think the cities can stand strong against Dominionists.

I suspect the Dems have their eye on the Supreme Court; it's the last protection of the Constitution. If it means letting in evil lower judges, well okay. Seems like no good options to me.

Well, you know Missouri better than I do, but my guess is that the good people of Missouri wouldn't put up with a Diktat like that coming down from the federal government. I lived in Iowa for three years and saw a bunch of the state and look, I'm the first to suspect Peoples are Sheeples, but I think we are underestimating the willingness and ability of the American people to tell people interfering with their lives to that degree where they can shove it.

I understand the economic arguments. I understand the axe the federal government can hold over the heads of the states and the cities. I also understand that Americans, when push comes to shove, know how to tell authority figures to eff off. Most of the wealth of the federal government comes from the states and cities themselves. This is far from being a one-way street here. When people decide to stop being victimized by the Imperial Capital, they not only can do something about it, they will do something about it.

Elizabeth, that's happening all over. The Bush regime has dumped all kinds of social-service burdens onto the states, and the states can't fund them. It was a beautifully cynical move: the states have been scrambling to cover the shortfall while gradually giving ground, so the magnitude of the disaster has only slowly become apparent. In the meantime, Bush & Co.'s friends have been doing a fast job of looting the country.

Huh. I've suddenly realized that I know the form of this scam: it's a blowout.

Here's the deal: Your basic blowout starts when crooks take control of a legitimate business that has a good credit rating, most often by entering into an agreement to buy it from its original owners, and possibly making a token initial payment.

In the next phase, the crooks start placing large orders for easily liquidated merchandise with the business's regular suppliers, and also with new suppliers who think they've acquired a valuable new customer. And since the orders are coming from an established business with a good credit rating, the suppliers don't ask for payment up front.

Meanwhile, the goods are being resold as fast as they come in, often at a fraction of their value. It's hugely wasteful, but the crooks don't care. Essentially, they're selling off other people's stuff and keeping the money, so anything they make off the deal is pure profit for them.

The suppliers send in their bills in due course, and meet with delays in payment. That's not an uncommon thing; and in the meantime, nobody wants to lose a customer that's obviously doing so much business. It takes some time for suppliers to start balking, and more time for them to start aggressive collection procedures.

At that point the business's new owners vanish, and all the money vanishes with them. Since they've never actually paid the agreed-upon price for the business, it reverts to the original owners. Unfortunately, what they get back is a plundered company that's deeply in debt to its suppliers and has a wrecked credit rating.

Thus with the national situation. The looting has been swift and efficient, but it's taken a while for the full extent of the plundering to become apparent. We're going to be feeling this one for a long time to come.

Most of the wealth *does* come from the cities and states themselves; but it doesn't come from Missouri. If push comes to shove, we would not have enough resources to do it ourselves. I agree that a state like New Jersey surely could tell the feds to stick it. But Missouri telling the feds to f-off would cost us schools, roads, ambulance services, trade, etc.

These operations don't have to perform as well as the federal government, of course - the necessary data will be generated, and (again, of course) those who insist on rigorous data and analysis are probably Latte-Sipping Blue Stater Eviloooshunists.

This gives the GOPtists lots of money, little accountability, and increased social and political power.

My feeling exactly. There is a faction in the right wing of American politics, though I'm not sure just how powerful it really is, that wants All The Power Forever -- as Randolph puts it, to install an aristocracy. This fills me with a horror I find difficult to articulate.

Digby's point (via Patrick above) is soothing to me, though, as is talk of the "natural-born fighting contrariness of people in general, and Americans in particular".

Erik's analysis, oddly, seems to offer another gleam of hope, when combined with julia's comments about McCain and the fact that the GOP7 have passed a point of no return with their unforgiving party. There appears to be a widening rift between the hardline, largely Christianist, compromise-allergic right wing of the GOP and more moderate Republicans. Could the GOP7 be positioning themselves for a split? Even if it's not a split into separate parties, real conflict between two GOP factions -- say, Jeb vs. McCain in the primaries -- would be good news for thinking people everywhere.

If the second is true, then nothing matters, and tyranny is inevitable, it's only a question of when it will happen, or if it already did, when we finally become aware of the truth.

If the first is true, then there is hope. 7 republicans broke from the party line to save the filibuster from Frist, denying him a feather in his cap for his 2008 presidential run, and denying a republican monopoly in the Senate. That republicans told Bush to consult the senate before submitting any new nominees seems to indicate a break from towing the republican party line.

As cynical as I usually am, I'm feeling like I'm the most optimistic person on this thread, which is freaking me out a bit.

God, that is frightening. That is exactly what is happening. With the same terrible consequences to the rightful owners. Brace yourselves.

And I'd like to think that the GOP7 would have a chance in hell against the corporate big money/dominionist grassroots alliance, but I really can't see it. On the other hand, it might be tempting to an awful lot of rightish swing voters who are embarassed about the whole Schiavo thing--polls show that there certainly are a lot of them.

It certainly would be nice to have an opposition party that wasn't insane.

"What sort of woman was most likely to take advantage of Roe v Wade?" the book asks. "Very often she was unmarried or in her teens or poor, and sometimes all three ... In other words, the very factors that drove millions of American women to have an abortion also seemed to predict that their children, had they been born, would have led unhappy and possibly criminal lives ... In the early 1990s, just as the first cohort of children born after Roe v Wade was hitting its late teen years—the years during which young men enter their criminal prime—the rate of crime began to fall."

From the Economist review of Freakanomics by Steven D. Levitt.

you're either with me, or you're.. my enemy...

wait. I think I just changed genres there...

Never mind.

MKK

Teresa, in re: Thank goodness Planned Parenthood is privately funded. This relates to something that's made me twitch about single payer medical care--even if it's good for a while, the centralization makes it vulnerable. In the past, when I've mentioned this to people who believe in single payer, they just seem to get angry, but I believe it's time to lean on the idea a little harder.

So far as what the current administration has in mind, Dominationism is somewhat plausible and very scary, but there's also a weird impulsiveness at the top. Maybe the two go together--we're not talking about a dream of Lawful Evil, we're talking about people who want to be in charge because they want to do what they bloody well please. It may be a mercy of sorts that they don't seem to have much sense. If they had some discipline and the ability to focus on anything but short-term victory, they'd be even more dangerous.

Alternatively, any possbility that the current administration is fueled by coke or meth or somesuch?

As for a blow-out scam: I've been concerned for some time that eventually someone would go over the books for the Federal Govenment and discover that all the money had been stolen. Since then, I've heard that there are no books for the Iraq War, or at least that the records are so confused that the money can't be tracked.

And now for one itty bitty ray of hope: this is happening because a good many people were talked into believing they should support a more authoritarian society. Any thoughts about how they can be talked out of it?

That's a pleasant surprise, and the second thing in the last few days that's got me thinking that the talking-points fax machine at GOPHQ must be on the fritz. The first was James Watt talking about "the religious left" in the Washington Post over the weekend.

I don't have a very good definition of what exactly is and is not whining, but waxing poetic about the endtimes of the world because of the current state of the (republican) union seems to be in the ballpark.

Whining, it would seem to me, is the antithesis of being a progressive. Where a progressive is moving forward, a whiner is looking back and immovable.

And so I go back to one of my recent posts:
"I'll take 'righteous anger' for $200, Alex."

I worry about that too. I'm in Washington state, where the Repubs have challenged the results of the gubernatorial election in court (yes, from wayyyy back in November...) The race between Rossi(R) and Gregoire(D) was very close in all the vote counts. Rossi won twice in the machine-counts, then finally Gregoire in the hand-tally.

There's currently a very real possibility that the final election results in favor of Gregoire will be eventually overturned in court--the choice of venue for the arguments is another matter altogether. At least one set of hearings was held in a tiny town halfway across the state from Olympia.

However it turns out, it's going to end up in the state Supreme Court for sure.

But you hear next to nothing about the whole process on any of the local news. Local public radio mentions it pretty frequently, but that's about it.

They aren't arguing that the results are incorrect--they're splitting hairs about who gets to vote. And since the election came down to a margin of less than 200 votes total--it's a tiny percentage of error to play with.

Understand, they are NOT talking about recounting yet again--essentially, the argument is that illegal voters in the past (ineligible former felons, etc) tend to vote such-and-such a percentage Democrat, and thus-and-such a percentage Republican, therefore, if x number of voters this year were ineligible, then by those percentages, we can throw those votes out, and Rossi wins after all.)

If the election ends up overturned on these grounds, it seems to set a terrifying precedent--at least on the local level.

And I work with people who aren't even aware that the matter is in court.

wait. I think I just changed genres there...

Never mind.

Wait just a minute there. You're not getting out of this until we get to the oral sex...

And the lesson continueth: "... or smirk." But we've seen plenty of smirking from GWB, and although it enrages me, it didn't hurt (enough) in November. But maybe smirk and whine?

Maybe we need some dogs to tell us that Bush is wrong. Because, you know, dogs never lie.

Of course, the administration has been paying plenty of attention to the lessons of VP, too: "If the plot moves fast enough, people won't notice the missing details."

My god. You know what the left's problem is? Too much exposition.

Okay, I'm off to write the Grand Unified Theory of Writing Advice and Modern American Politics. Patrick, that Columbus story will be a little more late. (The cat: "uh oh.")

There's a song by the Canadian band the Arrogant Worms, called Killer Robots from Venus:

I was watching the news last night
I saw something funny
The killer robots from--somewhere--just invaded Montreal
I wonder, could it be my neighbors, the killer robots from Venus?
Could it be them after all?
No, they're so nice!

No! There's nothing wrong with killer robots from Venus
They applauded for my kid at the Christmas play
(he was the best shepherd)
No! They're nothing wrong with killer robots from Venus
You may disagree, but I think they're A-okay.

And, uh, that's my theory about the administration. They seem so...nice. Particularly since "Christian" still means "nice" in large swathes of the country. So any bad things couldn't possibly be THEIR fault. Right?

Mostly I suspect my snarky whiner side just likes thinking of the current administration as killer robots from Venus.

The governor of Minnesota, Pawlenty, may have just cut his own throat and didn't realize it. He is so beholden to the "no new tax" pledge and the so-called taxpayer's league that he vetoed a popular transit funding bill. He now has the emnity of the business community, which in Minnesota was the original base for the Republicans. Businesses need roads, and a good bus system so that their workers can get to their jobs. He is angering the churches; good Minnesota Lutherans are very big on helping the needy. And we have optical scanners for voting, and lots of oversite. I think this country will fracture along thse lines. In some states, the Republicans never got a toehold or will get tossed out. There will be major differences between living in Minnesota and living in Missouri, unfortunately. Just as Europe is getting together, we will be falling apart.

1. On the control of recalcitrant populations, i. e. New York City. When the only food to be had is being handed out down at the Church of the Redeemer, you will go down there and stand in line and sing the stupid hymns, too, because your children's hunger is orders of magnitude stronger than your pride. I recall reading somewhere that the average North American city had only seventy-two hours of food within the city limits--I may well be mistaken.

Also, please don't forget how incremental this process is. I saw an episode of Frontline dealing with the run-up to the first Gulf War, and the truly amazing thing about it was how adult and polite the players were. Rush and Newt will likely be damned by history for their poisoning of the well of politics.

2. Trying to ascribe a single motive to the current holders-of-power is like sorting your books by color. Some few people, most notably Karl Rove, have mangaged to herd the cats of pro-life fundies, corporate welfare queens, neoconservatives, military adventurists, and the worshippers of Reagan in the same direction for long enough to get his post turtle in place. Not real different from a Democratic administration...except that some of the cats seriously believe that this country was a better place during the fifties--the eighteen fifties, that is.

My particular nightmare scenario is that our approaching fiscal train wreck will be taken advantage of by a real theocratic demagogue. It's worked before...

While Patrick is front-paging great comments, how about the one about "blowout" scams? Although I think the current situation is closer to an up-front raid, including hollowing out the pension fund, and selling off assets at deep discounts to cronies.

Nobody is more concerned than I am about how things are going. It's not like I'm a PollyAnna or anything. I think readers of my blog will know that. And it's not like I don't recall the siege of Stalingrad or the burning of Atlanta or anything.

But jeez. It's like huddling in a damp basement where our best hope is that one of our damaged tribe has managed to find a bit of unburnt candle while scavenging the ruins of the city. Now all we need is for somebody to find a dry match.

Okay, it's bad already. I give. (But only for the rest of the afternoon.)

Not quite. What the deal concerns is merely the status of the nominations currently in play. The 7 Democrats agreed to vote for cloture on Owen, Brown, and Pryor. The 7 Republicans agreed not to go nuclear over the continued filibuster (and thus death) of the Myers and Saad nominations.

(Re: Kip's comment, "actually, Frist just blew the doors off the deal: he's filed for clouture on Myers." - So this means that Frist literally doesn't have the power to break the deal, as he doesn't have the votes to go nuclear over these two nominations.)

The ultimate question on the filibuster hasn't been addressed, as the rhetoric about "extraordinary circumstances" is deliberately meaningless - both sides are free to interpret that as they see fit. Which means that the filibuster question returns the next time Republicans and Democrats disagree on who is an extraordinarily bad nominee.

So does kicking this can down the road constitute a win for the Democrats? I'd say yes, narrowly. While we get some bad people on the appelate courts, we've taken a lot of steam out of the Religious Right juggernaut, and dispelled some of the aura of invincibility. We live to fight another day. We'll see in the coming days and weeks how much that matters.

One last point - to those arguing that we should have stood our ground and called the nuclear bluff, I have to say I'm very dubious.

Perhaps we could have trusted a small number of moderate Republicans to vote their conscience anyway and save the filibuster. But trusting in the consciences of moderate Republicans has been a mug's game for quite a while now.

And perhaps the removal of the filibuster would have finally triggered voter antipathy to Republican overreach, and swept the Democrats into power in 2006. But honestly, people. How many times have we said or thought, "At last, here is the outrage that exposes these bastards as the corrupt predators they really are!" only to find that the voting public had already changed the channel back to Trading Spaces?

Depending on the self-interest of either moderate Republicans or the general public to all of a sudden take an enlightened turn has gotten us nowhere for a decade. We need a different strategy. For now, I'll accept this as the least bad option.

As a reader of stories, I hate to feel that the author is gaming the narrative to appeal to some shadow set of reader preferences. If the story wants the character to die, the character should die. If the character makes more sense as a whiner or smirker, put that in. If the story isn't telling you that about the character, then don't put it in.

OK. Back to exposing the unpleasant consequences that follow from people who can't handle freedom developing (being given?) the ability to impose social control systems.

Josh Marshall wrote about this back in December of 2003:

The Medicare bill is a Washington-style mafia bustout

"Say you’re a gambler and I’m a mobster. I’ve lent you lots of money. But now you can’t cover your debt. I could pursue the matter through your kneecaps or toss you out of an office window, but instead I take a more constructive approach.

You own a shoe store. I take it over your operation, order everything under the sun and fence all the merchandise for as much money as I can get as quickly as I can. I run out every line of credit you have and generally squeeze the place of every dollar I can get out of it. And then when I can’t squeeze anymore, I torch the place and collect on the insurance money."

Then on the other hand, Monty Python lampoons this well by failing to kill off a character:

LAUNCELOT: ... At last! A call! A cry of distress! This could be the sign that leads us to the Holy Grail! Brave, brave Concorde, you shall not have died in vain!

CONCORDE: Uh, I'm-- I'm not quite dead, sir.

LAUNCELOT: Well, you shall not have been mortally wounded in vain!

CONCORDE: I-- I-- I think I c-- I could pull through, sir.

LAUNCELOT: Oh, I see.

The fight goes on.

Looking at the reaction to some of the media reports...

"Infamy! Infamy! They've all got it in for me!"

1) It's really too early to figure out how good or bad a deal this was. Watch and see how things work out.

2) It was, however, a defeat for Frist. He promised total victory to the theocrats, got them all revved up in anticipation, and wasn't able to deliver. While they may not be angry at HIM, they aren't likely to feel particularly pleased either.

3) The corporate wing isn't particularly pleased with Frist right now, either. THEY never liked the idea that he even raised the nuclear option and were very pointedly sitting on the sidelines during the whole battle (and making it clear that they'd prefer the whole issue just go away).

4) One of the things that's going on in this fight and others is that the theocrats seem to be getting tired of being the Junior Partners in the GOP coalition. The pattern for the GOP ascendency has been that the corporate wing pushes as much of their priorities through while continually promising to attend to the theocrat's issues Real Soon Now. The theocrats may be trying to change this pattern.

(I'm hoping they are. The most likely outcome of THAT clash is that the theocrats get crunched and the corporate wing gets weakened.)

5) My suspicion is that the long term fallout of this deal will be more helpful for the Dems than for the GOP. At the very least, I think it increases the strains on the GOP coalition without causing similar problems for the Dems.

MKK

I hope to already be gone. Even if I wanted to defend my home with my life, the military will always be able to afford better hardware than I can. Counting on a gun for self-defense when the presumed opponents have bombers seems laughable.

re your post here, did McCain honestly believe that it was important to save the filibuster and swung a deal with enough Dems and Repubs to make it happen? Or was he a double-agent for Frist, presenting himself as saviour of the filibuster to dems while telling moderate repubs that his plan will buy the Senate for the religious right?

Neither. It was about time for McCain to make another dramatic gesture. This has been a regular cycle throught his political career. He makes a stand, the GOP takes him out back and beats the shit out of him, and he comes out the next day bruised, swearing he'll behave and yes, he really loves the GOP.

McCain isn't a political hero. McCain is a beaten wife.

Of course, if you still believe in elections, realize that Frist losing the majority leader position is a bad thing. There are quite a few competent and evil GOP Senators, you don't want them running the show.

As to Missouri. Missouri is fucked, and the Independent City of St. Louis is doubly so. Note that there are no reserves here, and the state constitution mandates a strict limit on the amount of income tax collected. When, during the dot.boom, Missouri mistakenly collected too much, they mailed refund checks to everyone.

Still, Missouri might get some help. They did go red, and it's the land of Kit Bond, Jim Talent, and John Ashcroft. Illinois is blue, so they're screwed. Thus, Whitman AFB Stays, but Scott AFB is gone.

If somebody wants to explain to me how they are going to manage that in a country this size with so many people, especially in the cities, unwilling to put up with that, then I'll be glad to stop being silly.

They are going to do it by going to the source of all political control - the ballot box. Howard Ahmanson Jr., an ardent and outspoken Dominionist, bought and controls ES&S and Sequoia voting, which just happens to count the majority of our votes sans oversight and without any means of audit.

Draw your own conclusions.

The strategic sense in maintaining -- and these are the people who have been actively and aggressively maintaining -- the United States' total dependence on oil is 'none'.

So, aside from maintaining their present wealth, power, and social position, they're also maintaining an opportunity for near-total control -- if you behave, you get your gas ration, squared and cubed. And since the capital cost for oil extraction infrastructure is immense, there isn't any way to end-run it. Near-perfect central authoritarian control commodity, so long as they maintain a meaningful gradation for more desired behaviours.

The fantastic swell of sales fits with a consciousness rising toward criticality; the audience wants adventure stories for itself but***
hasn't quite made the jump to nominative asskicking. Once that line is crossed, the demand rapidly deflates, and the writers (almost all of them mass-producers, and a great many of them male behind female pseuds), begins, probably with a toss of the head and a swooning sigh, to fill the new slot.

*"Someone's Trying to Kill Me and I Think It's My Husband."
**"Though I loved you from the first, Prudence, I never saw you as beautiful before. It is amazine what the near-fatal tumble -- you'll pardon my coarse language -- into the millrace, making your Kate Greenaway frock cling tightly and causing you to lose your sensible mukluks, has done for you."
***Oh god, he's not going to say "inchoate yearnings," is he?

"I have not, and I am truly baffled, found a list of the 7+7. "

Try Googling for The Gang of Fourteen

(I must say I like having the chance to use the phrase
"The Gang of Fourteen".)

The tragedy of this is that those of us ("us" being anyone to the left of Bush) trapped down in Texas warned people about Bush. He did this to Texas and then left in a hurry. There are people here who still refuse to admit that Bush spent or looted the treasury and split. Bush even admitted this in a Texas Monthly article--he said something to the effect of "Well, I won't be here, so it won't be my problem."

We're scrambling to deal with the fallout.

Dominionists + Scammers = Theocon Artists

For both New York City, and LA? Trivial.

Water.

Chicago is harder, they've got enough water to sake the thrist of all three cities combined, and there's enough cropland around that the idea of a breakaway Chicago republic is at least theoretically possible. Problem: No real seaport, unless Canada can control the Northern Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway. (Figure that shipping out the Cal-Sag/Ship-San->Illinois->Mississippi->Gulf simply isn't workable for dozens of reasons.

No, you control Chicago by controlling Gas and Diesel, which shuts down the transportation network, which means people starve to death. Given that Chicago's transportation fuels come via very long pipelines, this is also trivial.

Of course, that would kill NYC and LA as well, but water is much easier. Give me five large conventional bombs, and the freedom to place them, and both NYC and LA are uninhabitable in three days.

How do you stop this? LA is tough. New York could, conciveably, control the water supply by taking over the NE, Chicago could control its food supply, fuel and shipping by taking over the Great Lakes region. But to make LA safe, you'd need to take over most of the Colorado Basin.

Note that this, of course, is War, in all of its hell. I've spent three years trying to get that point across, I don't expect it to change.

Worse, this quote I saw (quoted from Salon, IIRC. I'm doing this by memory.) "Americans will vote for the Nazis if it means they can keep thier McCar and McHouse.

No, when the debt bubble collapses, and people can't even sell thier house to avoid food, they'll fall into line.

The problem with cities -- and civilization, is this. As you concentrate people into one spot, the number of dependencies grows, and with it, the number of dependencies that a small group can affect.

IOW, the cities are doomed, if the GOP want to kill them.

I don't want to see this on a global scale.

They had Bolton nailed, and the Gang of Fourteen has destroyed that. Owen's in, Bolton's going in, and the destruction continues unabated.

The Jetsons?

I personally see this as a typical Weimar agreement (and screw Godwin); principles go on paper, and in practice the thugs keep marching on. However, there wasn't much else to do at the moment.

(I'm hoping they are. The most likely outcome of THAT clash is that the theocrats get crunched and the corporate wing gets weakened.)

I live in Colorado Springs, otherwise known as theocrat and/or wingnut central. Let the crunching begin. Soon. Please.

Take the power down and leave it down, and the only option most NYC residents will have is to put a few essentials in their folding grocery cart and start walking toward the nearest area that still has electricity.

BTW, this works for the Phoenix area, too, only more people die. Developers have been in control there since territorial days. They long ago made it illegal to build in adobe, and they've always scanted on insulation. During the hottest months, most buildings in that part of the world are literally uninhabitable unless you've got a swamp cooler or AC running.

Cities are easy to take down.

As for the scenarios of resistance and civil war, you only have to look at Iraq to imagine how bad it would be. That and multiply by ten.

The democrats fell down when Kerry lost the election. And some of you haven't gotten up since.

And for a blog that has a lot of people involved with fiction, some of you fail to understand the power of your own words. What you say puts that mood out in the world for that moment, and can drag people down or pull them up.

When the characters are stranded on a deserted island and searching for food, the character who constantly whines "I'm hungry" does nothing but state what is already known and piss everyone else off for whatever self-indulgent benefit he gets out of whining.

I come to this blog when I need to get reinvigorated by like minded folks. When I show up and people are talking about the end of the world, it dragged me down at first, and now its just pissing me off.

What is this infatuation with sitting around and creating naratives about how terrible the world is and how insurmountable the task is to change it? If you must, get this self indulgent whine out of your system and get back up.

If you're going to stay down, then do so quietly.

If you're down and looking for a way to get up, you need to find one specific thing to move towards. Either fight for something specific that you want to happen in the immediate future or fight against something specific that you want to prevent from happening in teh immediate future.

Talk of the self-destruction of the nation is sitting down and whining. If you're gonna talk, say something useful, something that could actually get somethign done, or shut up. Owen has been confirmed, but you can still fight Brown's confirmation. Talk about that. Blog about it. Frame it in a way that will actually sway someone's opinion. Whining that she'll get confirmed isn't gonna change anything. Reid called for a vote on stem cell research. frame that in such a way to split some of teh moderates over to favor research.

divide and conquer.

But if you're simply going to pat yourself on the back and celebrate when your side is winning and sit down and whine when your side is losing, you're just getting in the way of the people who are doing the actual fighting.

Teresa, from my frame of mind, I cannot tell the difference. But I know I fall into a certain "character type" that sees things certain ways, which is different than seeing "the whole picture". I see people not moving and I want them to move, so I try to get them moving the way that would work for me. Obviously, not everyone is called to action the same way. I will simply have to take your word for it that whatever is going on is bringing people to the point of getting back up.

Which brings up the question, what happens when one or more of the 14 leave the Senate? This is not any kind of a long-term solution, is it?

On another subject, I'm with those who find discussion of worst-case scenarios to be unhelpful. It seems overly dramatic, IMO. But if it inspires you to take whatever political action you feel to be necessary, then that's good.

I do have to wonder, where are the new millennial equivalents of 1950s doom and gloom SF? I mean besides the Sinister Buttock series.

While the republicans are liquidating middle class savings in the general manner described here, it's not being done under a resolve to do so. The resolve under which this liquidation is being performed can be summed up as "We know we are strong by our dominance."

That's why two thirds of Americans wanted to believe at least one of the 9-11 hijackers were Iraqi at the time of the March 2003 invasion, if they still don't now.

"We know we are strong by our dominance" is also why George Bush received more votes than any candidate in history after cutting taxes for the rich while foisting record-breaking deficits on middle-class savings. Americans want to be strong, so they follow the only resolve to define strength they are given.

For one of the space-race dramatizations they show on cable, the credits repeat John Kennedy saying how we should do things not because they are easy, but because they are difficult. Kennedy didn't define strength by dominance, but by generosity -- this has been a position the democratic party has retreated from since his time.

The democrats have simply offered no counter to Rove and Bush's "We know we are strong by our dominance." No one wants to tell the American people we aren't strong. And none of the high-traffic liberal communities I've seen want to address the republican resolve directly.

What it is, really, is a prisoner's dilemma, where the prisoners have made an agreement to cooperate for their mutual benefit. There is still individual incentive to break the agreement. But I think real-life in this case mirrors the prisoner's dilema in the idea that the benefit from cooperating is actually better than the benefit of breaking the agreement and working individually.

If the senate changes, I think this agreement could still be reached by new members who see the benefit of cooperation. This belief requires that there is a difference between the extremists on either side who want it their way, and the moderates in the middle who see more value in long term cooperation than in stuffing the courts with bible thumpers. McCain doesn't sem interested in a court stacked with religious right nut jobs.

Greg London, since 'some of us' haven't checked in with you on our political activities before, during, or since the election, I suppose your bootstrap speech should be forgiven as youthful exuberance. As a socially acceptible alternative, I am going to strongly suggest you practice your positive positioning and go hug yourself.

Returning to permanent lurkdom now.

I am no moderate myself, but I think moderates working together is a good thing.

I come to this blog when I need to get reinvigorated by like minded folks.

Might I suggest that this blog does not exist to satisfy your needs?

My understanding is that the public was largely indifferent to protecting the filibuster, and the democrats needed 6 rebublican senators they couldn't count on to prevent Cheney from casting the deciding vote.

Besides giving the WH 3 judges, what the compromise has done is force the republican leadership to publicly abandon an inter-party agreement if they want to bring up the issue again -- they likely won't get the benefit of public indifference the next time around. When the public takes an interest in policy, republicans lose more than democrats.

The democrats get that much more leverage if slots open on scotus (how many are in remission for cancer, 4?), all for the price of stonewalling on 3 judges they weren't likely to get their way on anyway.

3 judge slots vs controlling interest on abortion and civil rights. This was Dobson's opportunity to issue the ultimate position on these issues for the country, and it was taken from him. The senate is hostile to the status quo of checks and balances, and the compromise is the best effort of 14 senators to preserve the filibuster -- I don't think the 7 democrats sold for too little.

a: The objective must be stated so that you will know when you've achieved it.

b: It must be possible to achieve with the resources you control.

2) Achieve your objective.

3) State an objective....

I think this is the key. The issue around nominees had been framed by republicans as democratic "obstructionism". That's an impossible political frame to win. The deal by the 14 has reframed the issue into a "solution". Breaking the deal then becomes obstructionism.

Previously, I think the public was apathetic to the filibuster because it was viewed as obstructionism. Now that a solution/agreement has been reached, any attempt by Frist to break the agreement should be framed by Democrats as worse than obstructing, but actually breaking a working solution. I don't think Frist can win that one.

I also think that the public was largely apethetic because this has been about judges that are NOT going on the Supreme Court. As soon as Reinquist steps down, and Bush nominates a replacement, I think a lot of moderates will take much more notice of how much that nominee is an extremist for the religious right.

Really. You need to trust me on this.

Teresa said,

"I'm convinced that social control is a lot of the motivation behind the attack on Social Security. It's a lot easier to be brave and independent and entrepreneurial if there isn't a little voice in your head telling you that if you screw up, you'll die in a poorhouse. That goes double if you're female, or a person of color, or a member of some other deprecated category. Reinstating the fear of an impoverished old age would do wonders to clear the field for well-funded white guys with good connections, and thin out those pesky innovators who do so much to make life less predictable for large corporations.

I find myself thinking a lot about this statement. As a formerly self-employed woman, from a large family of entrepeneurs (sp?) I guess that most of us - my father, uncles, aunts, cousins, grandparents and greatgrandparents - have started businesses without a lot of regard to the poorhouse. Some of us have failed, some of us succeeded until retirement, some of us closed for other reasons, some are still self-employed.

I have no expectations of SS - I've never qualified (being under a state employee system instead of SS might be slightly safer) but instead I've been forced to make my own choices for my retirement. I doubt that it would effect any decision to go back to being self-employed. The tax laws are far more influential on that choice than my reliance on a retirement system.

For both New York City, and LA? Trivial.

Water.

Back in the mid-90s when some of the more excitable natives of Hong Kong suggested a kind of Quixotic (or maybe Pyrrhic) resistance to the upcoming Chinese take-over, this was the single statistic that ended it: Hong Kong received about half its potable water from mainland China. All they had to do was turn the tap off and we'd die.

I don't know about New York, but LA, in particular, is ridiculously susceptible to this. Hell, it'd be an easy sell, too: just tell Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and maybe even Idaho, Oregon and Washington that you were going to stop LA from siphoning off the Colorado River and they'd be your best friends for life.

To make up for losing them, you could tell northern and central California that you would stop LA from stealing their water. Back in the 70s and 80s, the Peripheral Canal was a big water issue in CA. IIRC, LA County voted about 2-1 in favor, but the Bay Area went 4-1 against.

Or put another way:

[wingnut]
"You say it like that's a bad thing."
[/wingnut]

But that way lies madness and so forth.

2. When a comet appears in the sky, and Bush declares it to be Reagan's soul ascending to heaven then what do we do? (And in less than a century we'll have Gen. Boykin's great-grandson saying "I think I'm turning into an archangel..." as he dies.)

3. One metaphor no one has mentioned so far is Britain circa 1902. The following is a quote from Chrstopher Andrew's history of the British intelligence services Secret Service on the mood of Britain following the Second Boer War:

'Britain emerged from the Boer War with a new sense of imperial frailty. The great Empire on which the sun never set seemed, even to Joseph Chamberlain, one of its greatest enthusiasts, "a weary Titan staggering under the too vast orb of his own fate". The public as a whole, still with little idea of the problems involved in winning wars against guerillas, failed to understand how their army could could have required three years and 450,000 men to defeat rebellious foreign farmers.'

Andrew's book also has some wonderful details like this:

'The colonial secretary ... [who] opposed sending large troop reinforcements to South Africa in the summer of 1899, was convinced that the ID [Intelligence Department (of the War Office)] was exaggerating the size of Boer forces. Much other ID intelligence was ignored. When a copy of the ID manual on South Africa was sent to General Sir Redvers Buller (nicknamed 'Blunder' in the ID and elsewhere) on his appointment as commander-in-chief of the expeditionary force, he sent it back on the grounds that he "knew everything there was to know about South Africa". Another copy of the ID manual which found its way to [the South African province] Natal was captured by the Boers in their first attack, and promptly published in the American press.'

4. SF types (and I'm certainly including myself here) are used to thinking about cultural shifts and world-changing events, and to do so in a dramaturgical frame. It's easy for this kind of plot-ifying turn to drift into conspiracy theorizing when applied to the real world. Let me be clear: I'm not trying to accuse people here of excessive paranoia; I'm not even saying I necessarily disagree with all of the bleak assessments that have been proposed. I do, however, think it's worth recalling from time to time that the complexity of the world inevitably exceeds anybody's (whether it is us, or Dominionist éminences grises) ability to supply it with a narrative structure. Do we really understand what is going on with the GOP power elite any better than the U.S. government understood the Kremlin power elite in the 70's and 80's? And while it's true that those who run the country right now have been pretty successful at pushing an account of the world that is simplified enough for their narrative, such triumph of the will requires enormous effort – reality intrudes, contradictions appear. There are significantly more cracks than there were six months ago. Not that Kremlinological musings should be abandoned, or the possibility of a coming tyranny ignored, but it is also true, as has been said, "Space is big."

We lost power for an hour Wednesday evening in my part of Seattle, and about all I could do was lie on the couch and tally up the number of things I could no longer do. It was very very scary. Even making a phone call was difficult as my cell phone was run down and 2 of our 3 phones are cordless. And the one that isn't is downstairs in the basment where there's no light...

I have to say I am also getting really tired of Greg London assuming he can read my mind, knows what I'm doing and thinking and feeling, and presuming to look down on me. Oh yes, you are. You're sneering at those of us who worked damn hard and lost and are still in mourning and I'm asking you to stop it.

MKK

Stopping and lying down are highly worthwhile activities.

If you've been on a wrong path, the first duty is not to make it worse - stop. Go back if you can. If not, do not head in any direction until you work out your bearings and decide what you'd like to do next. Stopping is also good when you've got a worthy goal but aren't sure about this connecting step. It's good at intersections, to let others pass. it's good lots of times.

Lying down is good when you're tired. The physical position of being prone has healthful benefits when your body needs a break. Furthermore, the expression of grief and confusion helps clear the metabolic byproducts of stress which otherwise build up and make your life worse. Lying down can be good for reading, for dining, and for doing other things maybe best not done on the move. Lying down helps put you in position for massage and physical therapy.

All of this can be taken metaphorically, of course, as well as literally. I vigorously oppose metaphors which denigrate the value of these things, and agree with all those saying that shock, outrage, confusion, even despair are not in automatic opposition to constructive action now or in the future. But when dishonesty about facts and emotions is a crucial part of our enemies' arsenals, I think that it's doubly important that we do be honest about our ups and downs as we figure out what we must do and what we can do.

Drag-racing being a working class sport, drag-racing queens tend to wear Target: halter tops, hot pants or short cheap mini-skirts. You get the idea.

Actually, I'm kidding. Drag-racing is a dangerous sport. The drivers wear fire-proof nomex coveralls.

But they can wear whatever they want underneath.

The share of LA water coming from the Colorado is probably less than 5% and dropping. It never was all that much anyway, as both LADWP and MWD (the main water agencies in southern California) have known for more than a decade that the water was going away. The main sources, in order, are the LA Aqueduct from Owens Valley (Eastern Sierra runoff) with about half the city's supply followed by the State Water Project/California Aqueduct and a combination of ground water and local runoff.

Now if you want to contemplate a terrorist target, consider that half of the water for the second largest US city is supplied by an open, gravity-driven aqueduct hundreds of miles long passing thorugh remote areas. Structures and dams associated with it have been attacked before, during the original conflict over Owens Valley water. It could easily happen again.

All of the water for the largest city in the US flows through three similar aqeuducts, into one resivoir, then into two very large tunnels.

They're building a third tunnel, because they need to check and repair the first two -- but they cannot turn them off. They cannot afford the risk of a tunnel collapsing, since one tunnel simply cannot slake New York's thirst.

Teresa's right about power -- but, mod odd circumstance, it is actually tought to take down a power grid as a whole. Pieces, sure. (The odd circumstance is usually a human screwup at the heart of the grid.) For Joe Bomber to do so is much harder.

But killing NY and LA by water deprivation requires, well, five large bombs.

She has a compelling personal story.

It is hard for me to oppose someone who did something good for me, for whatever reason. Fortunately, neither Bill Gates nor George Bush have ever done anything good for me.

For the bland official California court bio see: Janice Rogers Brown.
For a partisan analysis see: independentjudiciary.com on Janice Rogers Brown

http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/data2/californiastatecases/s081910.pdf

is the url JvP wanted. Note that it's a (ugh) pdf.

I promise you there was no "looking down" or "sneering" at anyone.

What I was reading sounded to me like people had fallen down. I'm very action-oriented, and if I had written some of the stuff I was reading, it would mean I had fallen down, and I would want someone to get me moving again. What I wrote was from an action-oriented guy assuming everyone else was action-oriented too.

My mistake.

I know I can be emotionally color-blind. When Teresa said she saw people coming to terms with the facts so they could move out of paralysis, I deferred to her. I couldn't see it. Honestly, I still can't. But I know I see grey where others see red and green. I assume that the folks I pissed off are likely to be people who have better emotional vision than myself.

I apologize to anyone who heard my words as "looking down" or "sneering". That wasn't my intent at all. I was responding to everyone as my equal. What I keep having to learn is that "equal" isn't the same as "identical". Not everyone is action-oriented.

Instead of telling us that we're failures, filled with despair, and not action-oriented, try asking what we're doing and planning. The way you ask the question has a profound influence on the answers you can get. Telling is the least open way of asking a question; it can only lead to confirming your despair. At least it's certain. Trying to realize your hopes is riskier. You can never know for sure how other people will respond, and whether it will be enough. But that's life.

So Greg, how are you feeling? And what would you like to do about it?

That would be one place our views of the world are at opposite ends of the spectrum. To me, the power of words leads directly to action or inaction, depending on what is said. Words can give me energy and charge me up or they can drain me and drag me down. That's just who I am. And the words everyone was putting out were dragging me down. I get that wasn't what people intended to do, but neither did I intend to sound "sneering" because that wasn't what was going on for me.

I was trying to charge people up in a way that would work for me if I were down. I can apologize for how my words landed, but I won't apologize for my intent. The way I interpreted people as having "fallen down" when that's not where they were, other people are now interpreting my intent as "sneering" and other nastiness when no such thing was going on for me. All I can do is apologize for how it landed and tell you my intent was sincere.

I agree with you that words can lead to action. But this isn't a ballot box, a picket line, or a barricade. You need to be more comfortable with this being a place for words. Find ways to lead the discussion towards action. Don't just criticize it because it isn't already doing what you want.

Words can give me energy and charge me up or they can drain me and drag me down. That's just who I am.

Same for everyone. Think about the words you were using. Were they giving energy to the discussion?

And the words everyone was putting out were dragging me down.

If the words weren't for you, that's okay. But not everyone is like you. Maybe it was an issue that they needed to talk about, for their own reasons. I don't think it works very well to try to bottle up or redirect that process. It's better to go take a walk. Do something, anything positive. Let the others talk out their feelings. Come back later and see if they came up with anything good.

I was trying to charge people up in a way that would work for me if I were down.

I think the song goes like this:

Don't try to change people,
even if you can

People can change themselves, and if you work on something worthwhile, others may join you. That's the best you can hope for. It's not bad.

All I can do is apologize for how it landed and tell you my intent was sincere.

I never questioned your intent, so you are defending yourself from a charge that I didn't and wouldn't make. Think about it. I know you meant well. I seems to me that you were caught up too much in your own despair and couldn't see how the discussion could ever lead to anything productive. Also, I'm still trying to get across the idea that successful action usually starts with listening. But then I am telling you that, aren't I?

This is how I see it- I'm new here, I'm short on research, but I'm going to stick my neck out anyway.

It's a bad time to be a liberal, but it's a worse time to be a Senate Republican. The White House crowd is [I believe] ignorant, shortsighted, vicious, unsubtle, and incapable of changing their mind.

They've kept both houses of Congress under VERY tight control, stepping on toes and fingers and necks to do it. You can get away with that as long as they think you're winning, but once you start to lose . . .people remember. There are a lot of PO'd Senators out there.

I don't think there's a long-range plan in this- there's not that much vision in the White House bunch. I think the assumption is that "once we get things going the way they should be, people will realize that we're right." These are the same people who planned for US soldiers to be greeted with flowers as they rolled into Baghdad.

The R's are infinitely far from monolithic; the bad break will come and a lot of these guys are going to be fertilizer.

You control the cities by controlling the federal and state governments, as always, by controlling the mass media (not totally, that's not needed), with the backing of large-scale economic actors (i.e., multinational corps, some foundations), and with religious leaders (who don't have to be in the majority, but insensely political and committed).

There was a thriller a while back, about Air Force One. At one point a reporter tells the commander of that unit that 'they want to destroy Air Force One'. The commander asks who, and by what method - a bomb? The reporter looks blank for a minute, and replies that 'they' are people in Congress, and the method of destruction would be budget cuts.

Two or three years ago a host on a Boston radio station that's an NPR affiliate quipped, "Welcome to Massachusetts, home of the last free-range flock of moderate Republicans."

That was -then-. I'd vote for Romney to be the dog caught and impounded by the dogcatcher these days. He turned into a shill for the Dominionists interests.

------

The Republicans occupying the federal government of the USA remind me in a number of ways of early 10th century Bolsheviks.

I guess everything old is new again!

"... The current presidential fleet consists of two specifically-configured Boeing 747-200B series aircraft - tail numbers 28000 and 29000 - with Air Force designation VC-25A. When the President is aboard either craft, or any other Air Force aircraft, the radio call sign is 'Air Force One....'"

"While on the aircraft, the President and staff have access to a full range of services, including communications systems, secure and non-secure voice, fax and data communications, along with access to photocopying, printing, and word processing..."

Dear Making Light, you'll never believe where I am as I submit this to your blog, but...

Did you catch the latest news on Romney? His advisor says he was just kidding about being "moderate" on abortion... my favorite bit from the article is the suggestion for a 2008 Romney presidential campaign slogan: "It's Mormon in America!"