Where I live, in south Fulton County, the vote is going to be overwhelmingly for that Irish chap O'Bama.

Also, I'd like a pony.

*compare to: ああ!っ女神さまっ (Pronounced: AA! Megami-Sama )

Brad DeLong did observe that if Obama gets above 54%, that'll be the highest percentage of the popular vote for a non-incumbent since Eisenhower in 1952.

I'm done with my second shift of door knocking. Basically, it was the same experience I had four years ago: in the suburbs: people don't need to be reminded to vote. They don't need to be told where their polling place is. They don't need a ride to the polls. They don't need any more data. And -- most of the time -- they're not even home.

GOTV makes a whole lot more difference in inner cities and poorer neighborhoods. But I did my two shifts; I don't think I'm going out for a third. I'm heading home.

Both are worth reading.

Amen, brother. I really enjoyed voting for someone this time, rather than against some other guy.

And we get a broader slice of the populace interested if politics isn't conducted entirely in shouts*. My intensely non-confrontational father, who usually doesn't talk about politics at all, wanted an Obama yard sign. He sent an email around to friends and family about Prop 8 (against it, from a deeply religious and prayerful perspective).

We need these voices, as well as those of the people who like a good mud-fight. When the going gets ugly, only the ugly participate, and that's not the way to get the best out of a nation.

-----
* I know that there will always be some fierce conflict in politics. That's the nature of the species. But letting it take over robs many of us of our voices.†
† Bug? Or feature?

From your lips to God's ears, Mr. Schneier.

Me, I haven't voted yet, but will when I get back from work. Apparently everyone is seeing giant!monster!lines; this worries me, since my usual polling place is a teensy little spot (and I'm used to being in and out in 10 minutes). Good thing I had the foresight to bring a book today.

Odd. At the polling place where I voted early (in Cobb county) the lines were outrageous, but I thought I saw the elderly being expedited. Maybe they were only doing it for the really obviously frail or people who were both elderly and handicapped (there was a woman with a walker and a woman in a wheelchair, both with assistants.)

I'm glad they both did manage it without too much trouble today.

"Brad DeLong did observe that if Obama gets above 54%, that'll be the highest percentage of the popular vote for a non-incumbent since Eisenhower in 1952."

Of course that will be used as evidence that the country is conservative, and that Obama better govern from the right if he knows what's good for him.

Don't break anything while I'm gone.

Feel free to read this about why you should ignore exit polls.

Mother-in-law is in a wheelchair.

So it's officially Election Night: I wanna see me some progressive progress!

Obama: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DC, VA, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HW.

McCain: AK, MT, ID, NV, AZ, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, WV, OH, IN, KY, TN, FL.

Obama 286, McCain 252.

Obama gets the Northeast, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, the West Coast, and Hawai.

McCain gets most of the South (including Florida and North Carolina; sure, Obama leads there, but with all we've heard about certain Republican activities so far, I want to be careful with giving him any generally red state where his lead is slim), Ohio and Indiana (see above), the column from Oklahoma to the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska.

Popular Vote: Obama 50.5, McCain 47, other 2.5.

Sorry, I don't feel comfortable predicting anything else at all.

Oh, I hope you're right.

I hope that enough people feel passionately about it that they'll go vote against it after work even though the presidential race will almost certainly be decided by 6 PST. I really have no idea how strong the support vs opposition is among the general public, whether people who go out to vote specifically because of Prop 8 are more likely to be supporters or opponents.

One of the grad students in my department organised a march of 150 students from the Atlanta University Center to vote at the county offices in downtown Atlanta last Thursday. That's a solid bloc of Obama voters right there, and I know that a lot of our students voted absentee in their home states (including one from Alaska), and I'm pretty sure that very few of them were for McPalin.

However, although I am (a) in Georgia and (b) a political scientist, I am hesitant to call the state for Obama. The state is run by the Republicans, after all. We shall see.

That's why I'm going to be leaving work an hour early: I expect to have to stand in line longer than usual. (That, and the trains are having signal problems today. Delays of 30 minutes or more.)

The Coleman campaign has been the worst I have ever seen... Here in the North, we have been spared some of the worst of the dirty campaigning over the years.

Not this year. I actually think Franken will be beaten by the Incumbent Effect (which I value at 6 points)... Minnesota has sold it's soul...

Please let me be wrong...

It's the calm before the storm, and Charlie has just met Lady Helen for the first time. And her stepmother. They seem to be teasing him, a little.

You guys play nice. He deserves a little fun. Not that he's going to get it, just yet.

(1) Obama has coattails; the question is, as always, their length.

(2) The economy is bad for incumbents.

If it does, we will repeal it next year--or the year after.

Really? Hurray! At this rate, they should ALL have finished voting by the time I get back from work, and I'll have no line at all!

(Also, srsly? 43% of Angelenos not only showed up to vote at all, but have already voted?! Goooooooo US!)

3 out of 5 students, queried outside the hundred-foot limit before they voted, were voting "Yes." [on 8]

I blame those odious commercials that tried to cast a vote for 8 as a vote for religious tolerance. Talk about bizarro logic.

(for those interested, I posted my predictions ((with a map!)) just click my name).

Bruce, I doorknocked in a poor neighborhood on Saturday. Very few people were home, though a few appeared to be home but wouldn't answer the door.

We noted today that a rural town in our district had the most requests for rides to the polls.

This may all decided while I'm at rehearsal tonight! *sigh*

But certainly we're seeing Obama's coattails here in Minnesota. People, when asked, are saying things like: "I'm voting for Obama, and all his guys." I like hearing that.

I'm with you on the states going to Obama, except I think we'll miss MT and ND. And voting problems in St. Louis (as always) will just barely keep us from MO. Total of 380 (including NE-02 -- just to help enliven those civics classes).

Popular margin: 9 points, 53.5 vs. 44.5
Though my bottom-up state-by-state spreadsheet totals to 7.5 points, 52.9 vs. 45.4

For the Senate, I think Franken will fall short, thanks for Barkley. Martin may even lead in GA, but there will be a run-off. I agree, no MS or KY (dang!) -- Obama doesn't have the kind of turn-out machine in either state as the campaign has built elsewhere.

For the House, expected-value computation gives 261 D's in the 111th (30.5 pick-ups, 5.5 losses).

But a bunch of potential squeakers gives us a 267 total (one vote shy of a triple-digit majority), plus the runoff in LA-04. Some highlights:

Close (or favorite) wins: CA-04, CO-4, CT-04, FL-08, -21, -24, and -25 (Go Joe!), ID-01, MD-01, MN-03 and -06 (that one should help with your desire for more civilized discourse), MO-09 (but not -06), NV-03 (but not -02), NJ-03 and -07 (but sadly, not -05), NM-01 (finally!) and -02, NC-08, and for a grand finale, WY-AL and WA-08.

I'm not expecting them, but potential surprises are NE-02 and CA-46.

We hold all the governor's mansions and pick up MO. I've got some predictions on initiatives too, but this post is already too long. It looks like we should have plenty of time to celebrate throughout the night -- before we rest up to start the hard work of actually *implementing* all this change we believe in.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

We all shall stand in line
The voting booths await
Democracy's divine

The weather favors fine
Tonight we'll see our fate
We shall all stand in line

High turnout is a sign
That voters are irate
Democracy's divine

The others we malign
We will no more debate
We shall all stand in line

My vote, and theirs, and thine
All carry equal weight
Democracy's divine

This evening we define
What makes our country great
We shall all stand in line
Democracy's divine

But I think he will, because of all the first-time voters signed up to support Obama.

A son of Kenya, of Africa, whose father was born within a few hundred miles of Olduvai Gorge, where Lucy, the first human walked. 3 million years later, a son of Africa is again walking with footprints that will change the world.

In this time of darkness, a son of Africa is going to be President of the world’s most powerful country. One almost dares not say it, for fear that some curse will take it away. This is like the day Nelson Mandela was released from prison.

It has been a long wait, but tomorrow will be a truly great day. There is much peril and many disappointments to come, but this cannot be taken away from us.

Ndio tunaweza. In Swahili 'Yes we can'.

Ndio tunaweza, America.

Ndio tunaweza.

We'll be prayin' for ya'.

Fingers crossed for you, gals and guys.

*sigh*

The first line of #37 is "shall all," not "all shall." Please pretend accordingly.

We need to win this, because it's turned into a national referendum on the subject. If we lose, it'll pop up everywhere. If we win, it might not.

Huh - this seems like one of the few places where you can legitimately use 'African-American' since they are all actually American citizens. And your quibble doesn't seem to be with the 'African' part. Or am I missing something?

What part of "secret ballot" did you not understand? But first, I need to see your KGB identity card!

I've spent enough time in and/or involved with countries that have polls and non-secret ballots to have no respect for exit polls at all — not even as purported checks on manipulating ballot counting. Good [insert name of favored deity/whatever to take in vain here], can't you maroons wait twelve hours for the actual results to start coming in?

Other predictions:
Merkley(D) wins Oregon Senate.
Schrader(D) wins Oregon's fifth district, succeeding the outgoing Darlene Hooley.
OR ballot measure 65 (open primaries, poison pill for third parties) fails by at least 5%.

Proposition 8 fails narrowly in CA.

Obama wins the presidency with over 300 electoral votes and about 52% of the popular vote. I'm not going to try to predict individual swing states.

I also predict the official poll closing times will be a bad joke because there will still be long lines at many precincts, particularly in VA where there was no early voting and many problems have been reported already.

http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/

Exit polls are anonymous, so I don't see any loss of liberties there. But I can certainly understand not wanting to share your vote with a stranger.

And while we're on this subject, can anyone think of a good reason why Sarah Palin wouldn't tell reporters who she voted for?

Oh, I dearly hope so. I grew up in California, although I've lived in NYC for fifteen years now(!), and I've taken Prop 8 immensely more personally than I've taken any of its ilk over the last several cycles. As my presidential-election anxiety started to subside, I just reallocated all of it over to Prop 8. I imagine that whatever its outcome I'm going to end up having a little breakdown in my living room when it's called.

Watching one's right to be thought of as a full and equal person in the eyes of the law be put up for a vote is no fun. The next fresh-faced LDS missionaries who show up at my door may well wish they hadn't.

<snark>Because she wrote in herself?</snark>

I think I know why her vote's all hidden. She probably spent it on some independent or something. She wants WICKTORY! in 2012, and currently she and McCain harbor much disdain for one another.

If by some will of deity or demon McCain becomes president, that is NOT going to be a happy White House.

How are you feeling about Michelle "The-banks-were-over-regulated, and by the way, I-Drink-Children's-Blood" Bachmann?

Ideas deserve more prominence than the press gives them, but the candidates' character makes more difference.

In terms of the ideas he expressed in his first Presidential campaign, George W. Bush could plausibly have thought a fairly moderate, mainstream Republican, and many did see him that way. Those who paid attention to his character have been less surprised at the course of his Presidency, because W remains as he was : a dry drunk, a sneering frathouse bully, the family neer-do-well and a failure at everything he tries, a mean and resentful little prick. (Molly Ivins made all this clear in 1999. So did Joe Conason in 2000.)

Ralph Nader has lots of really good ideas. But if you read the accounts by people who have worked for him, worked directly with him, you find that his temperament is unsuited to leadership. He alienates the people he works with, drives them crazy, drives them away to found competing organizations supporting the same policy agenda, because no one can stand to work with or for Nader. He'd be a disastrous _Mayor_, much less President, and I think that voters have rightly understood this throughout his political career. His ideas will go nowhere until they are picked up by someone with the temperament.

I'm not all that fired up about soon-to-be-President-elect Barack Obama's ideas. But he has a first-class mind coupled to a first-class temperament, and I think those are excellent reasons to vote for the man.

I've been telling myself that, and I think it's true, though it may take more than a year or two. The trend seems clear enough. OTOH, a narrow defeat might lead to another try, without an Obama on the ballot.

BS #38. Franken. Yeah. I came back from MN yesterday, after a 10-day visit. A friend was doubtful about voting for Franken. "So, Coleman?" "Oh, yeah, right." Obama could have done a little more for Franken, I think, but I'm blown away by the Obama ground force, and that might turn the trick.

And the claim that this is an amendment, not a revision, is easy to debunk: if it said "California only recognizes marriages between a white person and a white person" instead of "a [male person] and a [female person]," nobody would think that was a minor change. Not even if they said that non-white people were welcome to have "civil unions" with "all the benefits of marriage."

But I hope it doesn't get to that, and that all the unlikely voters heading to the polls for Obama, and all the ultra-liberals and freaks who don't normally vote, and the thousands of newlyweds, are enough to vote down discrimination.

My point remains, though: Y'all can't wait twelve hours for reliable results?

And if it doesn't, I fear we'll need to re-defeat it for years to come. (On preview, I hope elfwreck's prediction @60 that the CA Supremes would overturn it proves correct if it passes.)

Oooh. I mustn't forget to also watch Indecision 2008! Must go downstairs and find snacks.

People from the Caribbean aren't African. Recent immigrants from Africa, while they may be citizens, aren't African-Americans as the term is widely understood.

I met a woman from Bermuda, who told me that she didn't like filling in the African-American bubble for race, because she's black, not Af-Am.

And if 8 passes, I'll feel not only very angry but very guilty, because other than donating a medium-sized chunk of money, I didn't do crap. I'm incredibly badly suited to phone-banking or canvassing, but I thought if anything could get me over my fear of talking to strangers, it might be this; No such luck.

My take on Palin is that republicans want to encourage people to not answer exit polls, as it makes it easier for them to fiddle the results.

I'd also like to believe that a majority of the people in my state would vote against bigotry, even if it's a small majority.

Early voting is the reason; according to the results, over 2.6 million NC voters used the early voter program, which was over 74% of the TOTAL votes cast by NC in 2004.

The predictions is today's votes will bring the total up to around 60% of the total NC voters, but if that is the number, Obama is going to win this state. Roughly 55% of early voters were Democrat, and only 30% were Republican; the others were Independent. Even assuming ALL today's voters were Republican, that would still not be enough IMO to overcome the big lead Democratic voters gave Obama from early voting.

The totals won't be released until 8:30 due to a snafu with some of the polls today, but the early voting data will come out at 7:30. That may be all we need to know by then...

I imagine it's the same reason I don't list myself as a Pacific Islander. Not all of us come from Japan or Hawaii or whatnot (and yet that's often the only option given to me when marking the race bubble. So I just choose Other).

If my family had roots from the Caribbean, "African"-American is something I'd have trouble identifying with.

So, I don't know. I am predicting that we win both, but I really don't know if we'll win more than one of them.Media v. Poulson in MN-03 and Tinklenberg v. Bachmann in MN-06. Both are in Republican leaning suburbs, and both have a chance at going Dem this year. Bachmann really blew her lead with that stupid McCarthy-like interview; but when the RNCC pulled out of her race, they dumped the money in MN-03.

So, I don't know. I am predicting that we win both, but I really don't know if we'll win more than one of them.

Except the pony part. I don't want a pony.

I sure as heck want Ted and Don to no longer represent Alaska. And if y'all don't mind, I'd be much happier if you let my governor come home. Just sayin'...

As of 8 am this morning, the line at my polling place was 4 blks long. About 9 they had the first wave (that started at 7) through - it was incredibly efficient. I went to vote at 1:30 and avoided the lunch crowd. We just swung past the school on our way to grab celebratory groceries* and there was a small line again. But...it's good. I think we'll make it.

*There are few things more american than A&W root beer with vanilla ice cream. Also, hotdish/casserole for dinner.

However, I hope with you: let Obama win NC! And Indiana! And Florida! And Georgia!

I don't think I'm going to see reliable results at all.

(I'm also pretty sure there's going to be a major public announcement that someone has won something they haven't, too.)

There's this... plethora... of divergent systems; obvious, acknowledged, widespread, well funded, voter suppression efforts; almost nowhere using exclusively the only really decent -- paper ballots counted in public on the night -- voting technology; and a distinct lack of jail time for folks who are known to have done wildly unlawful things. (Even if the 2004 Ohio vote was conducted with such probity and even-handedness that St. Michael the Archangel could not have bettered it, the destruction of the records was itself a significant felony.)

So I don't think the eventual results are going to be all that accurate a reflection of the actual vote tallies, were those to have been counted accurately.

Which is not to say a lot of folks aren't trying their best, but as anybody looking at the poll aggregation sites can tell, a couple percentage points of trend is a big change in results. There's at least that much slop in the present system. That awareness has to really nag at politically aware people; it's not just the votes, it's the political control of the mechanism of vote counting.

That's not how a democratic system is supposed to work.

There was a plan in place to replace with those auto digital voting machines from Diebold but that was put on hiatus for however long post the 2000 election and then the 2004 election.

I kinda like how when I pull the switch I see that big black X show up where I want it to be.

But then I've voted in the same precinct almost all my voting life, with the one exception -- 2004 -- when I was living in New Orleans and thought a Kerry vote there would matter more than a loss of a Kerry vote back up here.

It's kind of misty-making now, after all these years of living here, when signing into the voter registration book, to see just how many frackin' elections we (the spouse and I) have voted in, in this district. Not only the presidential elections. We vote in all of them. This voting record is yet another history of our marriage.

Excuse me. I'm really sick.

Love, C.

(Are we there yet?)

(How about now? Are we there yet?)

The polling on 8 is much too close for comfort.
A Field Poll of likely voters finds the measure, which would ban gay marriage, trailing by five percentage points -- 49-44, with 7% undecided. In September, the margin was 14 points.

What *I* really want is for the Republican pander-to-'Real-America' all-slime campaign strategy to go down in flames. BUT FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO KEEP RUNNING IT for a couple election cycles, until the modern conservative coalition has splintered beyond hope of repair and no longer has its outsized influence on national politics.

Nothing could make me happier than seeing a Palin 2012 candidacy; we could use a nice solid 8 years.
***
Regarding "African-American," I'm sure someone's made the observation already, but -- Barack Obama will be America's first Black President. But we'll still be waiting for our first President who is descended from slaves. These are very much not unrelated statements. This is progress, but we're not done yet.

Fortunately, there's a template... you can almost grab the anti-miscegenation law arguments and rulings and replace the word "race" with "sex" and hand them back in. It's downright frightening how near-identical the rhetoric is. (About the only notable difference is in the phrasing about children. Not the issue--the anti-marriage crowd claims to be "concerned for the children" in both cases. But the phrasing is perforce a bit different.)

But, yeah, I'm worried too.

We broke records in total votes cast for Kerry in 2004 and it was not nearly that busy.

I'll bet it's fun having tenure.

The vast majority of problems of every kind so far I've seen reported come out of swing state Virginia.

Love, C.

Indiana (11 EVs)
Barack Obama (D) 55% 10,913
John McCain (R) 43% 8,570
Bob Barr (L) 1% 227

I'm aware that not all Democrats will vote for Obama, but I just can't see the number going for McCain to be much more than 5-10%, and probably that many Republicans switched as well (my wife and I are both listed as Republicans, for example).

The state I'm surprised as possibly going blue is Georgia. I mean, really; GEORGIA??? If that happens I'll be dumbfounded. And ecstatic!

(I'm heading out within mere minutes to do the dinner shopping for the Grad Students Plus Me election night hangout CNN and Making Light bonanza with extra single malts and drinking games!)

(Oh yeah - location: Stanford, CA)

Remember, even the no-doubt states matter. That's where we'll see the first indications that the polling models are all wrong, and that the vote will look different from the polls all across the country.

The only actual fact I have to report is that turnout was heavy in my corner of Manhattan at 8:30 or so this morning, but that I had a shorter line than my partner, because they'd split our election district A-L/M-Z even though about 2/3 of the people in this E.D. have surnames in the former group. I was out in five minutes, as voter 80 on my machine; he was there a half hour, and got 124.

Bruce, your opening comment hit it perfectly. The best outcome is that the tactics that got and kept Bush and company in power for 8 years get discredited, and so we get less toxic elections in the future. (Discussions about ideas and policies, with genuine thought and analysis behind them, would be better, but I don't see how that can ever become the norm here.)

Obama 15k, McCain 11k.

http://www.vigocounty.org/ ... this is rural south-western Indiana. Terre Haute is the biggest city.

If McCain can't win here, its a long, long night for Republicans.

Ian Whitchurch

Elizabeth Dole is going to lose, too. And Bruce, now that you're back -- what do you think about Michelle Bachmann's chances, out in Minnesota-6? (Not that her opponent is any prize, but still, she needs to lose.)

JS: re 1st presidential records, I kinda agree but without turning this into the NFL, my priority is for first 21st century president sane enough not to destroy the world because his friends tell him to.

I don't fetishize "business control" as being any less dangerous than "government control" — try actually reading the evidence in Marsh v. Alabama and similar cases about private police forces in company towns.

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

When I voted early in Gwinnett Co. last Wednesday, they were calling anyone 75 or older to the head of the line to expedite their voting.

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

Obama 18 605
McCain 13 790

As per CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#val=INP00p9

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

John Hart's CV [PDF] says that he finished his PhD in 2006 and started as an Assistant Professor at UMich in 2007. There's no way he has tenure.

But check out nanobliss for more cool nanoscale visualizations he's done.

I've decided that people like Eyman who submit sufficiently many bad propositions using questionable means are electoral trolls, and I would like to see their propositions disemvoweled.

Going as expected so far

Indiana and Virginia not determined yet
Georgia not determined yet
South Carolina not determined yet

Amazing

Most of my friends on both sides of the aisle find her embarassing.

However, if you read the comments sections of our local papers, any article not proclaiming La Sarah's magnificence is part of the vast Left Wing Conspiracy to discredit her snow-white self.

She'll be up for re-election (if she chooses to run) in 2010, and she'll have to go through a primary. She became governor by crushing the universally despised Republican incumbent in the primary. The Dem challenger was a nice guy, but not much sizzle. Sarah's got sizzle.

In private, she's not very popular with the Republicans and not only because she's stuck it to the Randy Ruedrich crowd, but because they know she's cunning at promoting herself but dumb as a box of rocks on the issues, and disinterested in the details of governing. That's per a staffer and some ex-legislators. She's not popular with the Alaska Native leadership.

On the liberal side, up until her nomination she wasn't loved, but she actually was vaguely bipartisan, which is a novel change for up here. Liberals didn't vote for her, but in a state that's historically conservative, they've had worse.

I don't know if she'll get re-elected. The longer she's in office the more time there is for her detractors (count me in) to show her hypocrisy and unsuitability.

However, lots of people are easily distracted by a pretty face.

Most of my friends on both sides of the aisle find her embarassing.

However, if you read the comments sections of our local papers, any article not proclaiming La Sarah's magnificence is part of the vast Left Wing Conspiracy to discredit her snow-white self.

She'll be up for re-election (if she chooses to run) in 2010, and she'll have to go through a primary. She became governor by crushing the universally despised Republican incumbent in the primary. The Dem challenger was a nice guy, but not much sizzle. Sarah's got sizzle.

In private, she's not very popular with the Republicans and not only because she's stuck it to the Randy Ruedrich crowd, but because they know she's cunning at promoting herself but dumb as a box of rocks on the issues, and disinterested in the details of governing. That's per a staffer and some ex-legislators. She's not popular with the Alaska Native leadership.

On the liberal side, up until her nomination she wasn't loved, but she actually was vaguely bipartisan, which is a novel change for up here. Liberals didn't vote for her, but in a state that's historically conservative, they've had worse.

I don't know if she'll get re-elected. The longer she's in office the more time there is for her detractors (count me in) to show her hypocrisy and unsuitability.

However, lots of people are easily distracted by a pretty face.

(Comments here are processing very slowly here or timing out.)

• The bible belt is not fond of "Joe Six-Pack"; drinking is a vice they don't approve of;
• Environmentalism is important because "God gave us stewardship over the earth;"
• "Hockey mom?" What's hockey? Isn't that a foreign sport?
• Why is this woman with a small baby playing at politics, anyway?

Back to our anxious poll result watching.

Obama 21 425
McCain 16 156.

GWB won Vigo county by 6%.

This is rural south-west Indiana.

It's over.

Barack Obama is the next president of the United States.

Also, anybody know of any sites doing this sort of close analysis? (internets only, since I am at a cafe)

This Canuckistani resident is going to be up late watching your election online, which I noticably did NOT do during our own (dull and unneeded) federal election last month.

Regarding Bruce's comment on the narrowness of the US political spectrum: true compared to Canada too, although we tend to be left-shifted and a bit narrower than the European spectrum. Our Conservatives would be liberal Democrats if American, though...

Drink for the phrase "exit poll."
Drink for any mention of voter fraud or disenfranchisement.
Sip for announcement of voting hours; drink for announcement that the polls are closed.
Sip for the phrase "Ahead/behind by ## points;" drink for the phrase "too close to call."

Drink for any candidate announced as winning anything.

The idea is to get too drunk to care about which of your issues/candidates didn't go the way you wanted.

Polls closing here in NC in ten minutes. At 6 a nice young man knocked on the door to make sure I'd voted. I told him I had, and asked if he was getting many people out. He said most everyone he'd talked to had already voted. That's good news. Come on, NC too!

I'm hearing this on Air America. At 7:21 PM EST.

Love, c.

I'm going to go look at Wonkette's drinking game. I saw it on a tweet, but haven't made it over there.

According to Nate Silver at 538, Obama is beating Kerry's by-county percentage numbers in Indiana by "substantial" margins.

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

I've got it up as a stand alone app in Google Chrome, but I'm just using the race calculator bit to model the EV's. Pretty nifty!

I also like the fact that it is called a 'race' calculator and that the majority of people my age and younger won't have any idea that this word connotates anything other than a contest.

[snark]She is a married woman. She can't say anything that might reveal her hidden feelings for Obama. [/snark]

But really, if she voted for her own ticket it wouldn't be ladylike to say as much.

Al Franken does come across as a sleaze, but that doesn't count for much with the many of us who are fed up to here (pointing over my head) with clean cut Norm Coleman.

Pessimistically - a small Democrat win, EC votes a tad under 300.

Looking forward to VA & NC - really really really

SC would be OTT

Beverages - a bottle of organic rose wine from Mendocino cos I like the McGarrigle song.

And I have a bottle of Tusker beer. I'm opening it when I think Obama has won. His cousins will know what that is even if you don't. :-)

I suspect, also, that the new voters are going to be anti-Eyman; young people and urban people have been disproportianately hurt by his initiatives, especially that first one.

Wake County is considered a bellweather county for some odd reason. I don't think anyone will be able to call NC until those numbers are in either.

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

The numbers that you're looking for are X%reporting which means that X percent of all precincts have reported the votes cast.

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

For exmaple, right now McCain is ahead in VA, but the only two areas who have reported are conservative areas of the state.

Fortunately, there's a template... you can almost grab the anti-miscegenation law arguments and rulings and replace the word "race" with "sex" and hand them back in.

As noted in a video by none other than Samuel L. Jackson, via Greta Christina's blog.

The BBC is focusing heavily on a countdown timer for each set of states, down to the second. It is beginning to become cringeworthy when they fire the graphics up and then again have nothing report. Is that really how it works though, that on the buzzer the state can/should be reporting?

Of course. She doesn't want to go on record as saying she voted for a convicted felon for Senate, and she can't say she didn't vote for the Republican candidate.

Finally, there are some sane Christians in America.

2004 GWB 8433, Kerry 4345

2008 (95% reporting) McCain 7288, Obama 5905

When the swing is on, it's on.

And I hate to be a radical...
but shouldn't new posts queue in at the top?
That way we can see when there is a new post?

PS: Is bottom insertion an example of entrenched technology?

Right. So what are the factors that make CNN think it can call one state with 3% of the vote in, but not another? I imagine that it's largely expectations, in other words, a good guess.

What I'm wondering is how much stock I should put in their projected winners when they call them.

Hmm. Snarky speculation from Robert Seigel that they're all out challenging results.

Wirelizard @142: Here's how I figure it:

CANADA - U. K. - UNITED STATES
Green Party - Green Party - ?
NDP - Lib Dems - Green Party
Liberals - Labour - ?
Tories - Tories - Democrats
CHP - BNP - Republicans
Neo-Rhino Party - Monster Raving Loony Party - Boston Tea Party

This precinct generally has a higher-than-usual turnout for the city, but it's usually not this high. This bodes well for Philly turnout, and it seems unlikely that McCain will be able to flip the state.

"Polls closed" just mean that nobody else is allowed to get in line -- it doesn't even mean voting is finished. The precincts then need to count up the votes and report them -- you'll see numbers like "9% of precincts reporting". Early numbers are misleading not only because they're small but because they aren't uniform -- they're showing McCain with a lead in VA, for instance, but if you look at the county-level numbers on the NYT site you'll see that the more liberal northern part of the state doesn't have results yet. Similarly Indiana is shown as leaning toward McCain, but Gary, in the northwest part of the state -- right next to Chicago -- hasn't reported yet.

The networks don't want to call any state until its polls close, because that discourages people. If they wanted to, they could call DC, NY, CA, ... for Obama now, and likewise TX, UT, ID... for McCain.

When a state is safe, or darned near safe, the networks can reasonably call it as soon as the hour ticks over. That's the case in VT for Obama, as the first example that's easy to spot on the map I'm using.

Question: Does Obama pretty much have at least one of FL, PA and VA in the bag? If so, I believe it's over now?

There is a test for whether or not politics are Christian

Jesus's first sermon (in Luke chapter 4) quotes the prophet Isaiah as a sort of manifesto:

"The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed me to proclaim good news to the poor. He has sent me to proclaim liberty to the captives and recovering of sight to the blind, to set at liberty those who are oppressed, to proclaim the year of the Lord’s favour."

So, seriously, the test to see if any political platform is Christian should be:

Is this good news for the poor?
Does this free captives?
Will the blind recover their sight?
Are the oppressed to be set free?

And TPM still only has VT and KY on the board... where's VA? *twitch* ;-)

I think it's because the early totals in Florida are all from early voting -- 0% precincts in, but tens or hundreds of thousands of votes counted. Therefore *who* turned out for early voting (versus who is voting today) is really going to skew the results.

And from pre-election surveys, we figure about 60% of the total turnout was from early voting (versus low 20's in Indiana).

So it will probably be quite a while before we have a clear picture of the results in Florida (for a change...)

Not surprised

McCain 16
Obama 3

Not yet, no. I don't think the polls in FL or PA have closed yet.

So, seriously, the test to see if any political platform is Christian should be:

Is this good news for the poor?
Does this free captives?
Will the blind recover their sight?
Are the oppressed to be set free?

Which is why I, as a Christian, am a social democrat (by European standards. I suspect that by US standards I'm a liberal pinko Commie.)

Newest posts on top is an invitation to drive-bys.

Not 3 precincts. Three votes.

(Two for Obama, one for McCain, as it happens.)

Clearly this is based on the polls being "not even close" and backed up by exit polls and such, not on actual results. But even so, I was quite amused.

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!

Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

Vote the Christian Cyborg Transhumanist Party!

We're going to win this thing.

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!

Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

2004 GWB 8433, Kerry 4345

2008 McCain 7670, Obama 6283

McCain has 763 less votes than GWB got, and Obama has 2938 more.

In 2004, Steuben County delivered 4088 net votes for GWB. This year, McCain has a lead of 1387 to offset the margins Obama will rack up in urban districts.

When the swing is on, it's on.

Come on, Indiana!

Vote no on 8.

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!

Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

I'm watching CBS, they didn't call it yet....

(Ewww, they've got Rick Santorum on as a commentator. I think I need to disinfect my TV.)

And I think we're breaking the servers here. Please wait a long time before you try to post your comment a second time.

Not everyone's called it yet (ABC has; the Phila. Inquirer has not), but the early call is hopefully a good sign.

I'm watching BBC and Sky News and downing salt water furiously. Thanks for the explanations earlier.

I would feel so much better if even ONE of you were in my living room, so that every time any pundit spoke you could debunk in real time, without my having to post or refresh. Srsly. I think that in my daily life I am a non-panicky, logical, analytical thinker.

I'm going insane!

I have now MUTED the volume on CNN. But that means that we can't play the drinking game. Although I've got to go pick up Dylan at 9:00 from the ice rink. So I should probably wait to start drinking anyway.

Hockeymoms for Obama! Go Indiana, Go!!!

(Things will be infinitely better, I think, when I can replace the caffeine with wine)

I've mostly gotten out of the whole TV habit for a while. It helps that over the summer, the leaves get in the way of satelite reception. And right now, TV would distract me from the Web.

The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind, on my classic XBox; at this point in the hotly contested election, it seems that an overconfident Archmagister Gothren will likely lose his leadership of Great House Telvanni to an outlander, stark-born to sire uncertain. In this case, exit polls require a good Conjuration skill.

NBC is calling Pennsylvania for Obama. That's huge.

My companion did something he's never done, in some 45 years of voting... punched the straight ticket for the Dems. He laments the absence of a Goldwater.

When we went to Starbucks (ghey give away coffe on election day) we saw an elderly, and somewhat frail black woman, beaming to burn the clouds from the sky... 90 years old and happy as ever could be. You bet she voted.

Always bemused by the GOTV stuff... here attending a polling booth on election day(always on a Saturday to make sure most people have time off) is compulsory, what you do once you get there is optional - but most people take the opportunity to vote.

Democrats up 3 in the Senate, so far.

Those numbers are staggering, but I have seen a LOT of Dole supporters turn away from her after she ran that "Godless America" commercial just this weekend.

Conservative as hell. Now Blue. (Not to worry, John - lots of red counties still - O 47.4% M 51.4% at the moment.)

Inkidentally, the Indy Star is calling Texas and Georgia blue as well. And West Virginia and Ohio and North Carolina. That's freaky.

There are UK sites calling Texas for Obama. Tell me that's not true...

Obama leads McCain by 150,000 in NC

ABC, about 8:15

I'm here in suburban Albany NY, and my daughters and I are about to walk over to my Town Hall to pick up my wife, who left at 5:30 this morning to work all day as Election Inspector. (Yay, democracy!)

I'll get my local precinct results, too, but they won't be a surprise, as we're now a solidly Dem district.

I believe ABC still hasn't called WV for McCain.

This is my first time posting to the site, but I've been reading it for a while, after I was pointed to it from a friend.

Tonight I have a choice of following the results on the BBC and on CNN. The BBC isn't talking much about results, and is discussing issues more. However they have a large number of pundits rotating, and they are just asking the making the same points over and over again, and not really getting in to the issues. CNN is just an onslaught of numbers though, and I don't find numbers from states with Hello from the UK,

This is my first time posting to the site, but I've been reading it for a while, after I was pointed to it from a friend.

Tonight I have a choice of following the results on the BBC and on CNN. The BBC isn't talking much about results, and is discussing issues more. However they have a large number of pundits rotating, and they are just asking the making the same points over and over again, and not really getting in to the issues. CNN is just an onslaught of numbers though, and I don't find numbers from states with

One interesting point was that Americans are happy with a divided government, and that has been used as tactic by the Republicans in some states to keep them in the running for Senate seats. In the UK we would hate to see a coalition or minority government, and are much more happy when there is one party in charge.

Perhaps someone can help me though. One commentator said that it would be important for Obama to get a "fillibuster-proof" majority in the Senate so that he can make the reforms that he wants without the Republicans obstructing. I thought I knew what a fillibuster was, but I didn't think it was possible to have a majority that would prevent the minority from using the tactic. Is there some aspect that I am missing?

Thanks,

James

"Longest wait I have ever had, about five minutes, at 0830. The other precinct in the building was about 15 minutes."

It takes longer to post a comment here.

AP Calls New Hampshire

The speed of the call in the Granite State is the best evidence yet that Obama is about to become the next president.

I think the IN returns are the best evidence yet, but I'll take both.

Except that we do know that McCain is underperforming Bush in key counties in IN, VA, and especially Florida. This is significant if the trends continue.

I'm in my hotel in Brooklyn, wearing my Obama "Believe 01.20.09" tee shirt.

Julie

Of course, if Texas goes for Obama I'll jump for joy.

People ought to be watching pollster - they're doing some magic with exit polls and demographics to project vote totals. So far, national vote is 54%/44%. I'll take a ten-point victory.

The NYT (which is VERY conservative about calling states, and which shows county-by-county maps of where reports are in) has zero precincts in from Pennsylvania. Anyone calling it is basing their call based purely on polls, and not on votes.

Albemarle County (Charlottesville/UVA) is likely to go Democratic as well.

The southeasternmost counties, in the Virginia Beach/Norfolk area are highly populated, but also have a high proportion of military families; I'm not going to try predicting them at all.

Disclaimer: haven't lived there for a decade, YMMV.

Obama: 510
McCain: 28
Barr, Nader: 0

(there might also be a few undervotes; I forgot to check for that)

Mount Airy isn't necessarily representative of Philly or PA as a whole, as I've said before. But that's still quite a satisfying blowout to see.

Anyone wonder why not?

--ex-Hoosier

PNH @237 The whole internet is slow tonight, I think all of America (and a large portion of everyone else) is all trying to fit in the same tubes at once.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.

Conservative as hell. Now Blue.

Hahahah Dole campaign refuses to concede.

PunkRockHockeyMom@243: I would totally sign up for that service. I'm picturing maybe a picture-in-picture thing: pundit speaks, Bruce/Patrick/Xopher debunk.

Hell, I'd get premium cable if that were included.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.

The Senate normally has no time limit on debates. This means that as long as someone is willing to keep talking, they can delay a vote indefinitely. It takes a 60% vote to suspend the normal rules in order to cut off debate.

In the interests of sanity, the TV is on a House marathon, and I'm merely poking the Internet.

http://www.wfsb.com/news/17892255/detail.html#-

I don't see how McCain wins without PA.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.

1) TV with picture-in-picture to monitor networks.
2) Laptop on table to right of ManChair with major sites, Twitter and IM. Thank goodness for the auto-refresh Firefox plugin
3) Laptop on table to left of ManChair with four video streams, unmuted as needed.
4) iPhone getting text messages, phone calls.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.

My companion did something he's never done, in some 45 years of voting... punched the straight ticket for the Dems. He laments the absence of a Goldwater.

Zombie Barry Goldwater was the topic of much hilarity at the Great Northern Pizza Kitchen I was scavenging* pizza from after getting my free ice cream from the Ben & Jerry's across the street, this evening.

"I project a vast surplus in BRAAANES!"

In other news, CNN currently projects Obama as not only being approaching half-way there to a win - with NY and California (86 electorals between them) not yet called (but almost certainly for Obama), but he's also got nearly three times as many electoral votes as McCain (although admittedly much of the South and Midwest - where McCain is certain to pick up a great number of his votes - have not yet been called, or even had polls close in some instances)

*if by scavenging, I mean "ordering and paying for with the remnants of my last freelancer check", which I do.

Remember the basics. All Obama needs is the Kerry states (and he hasn't lost one yet) plus Bosh 2004 states Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico--all of which he's led in for weeks, even months--and he wins. He doesn't need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, or Missouri. Winning even one of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, or Missouri would be gravy.

You're slacking, only 1 TV!

;-)

But if you're happy, that's the key.

At least I learned something about cartography while making this stuff!

It can't possibly be vote suppression in a largely black county.

The marijuana as misdemeanor and dog racing bans appear to have passed.

Now stay the hell off my porch, ya pretending-not-to-be-Republican, work-from-home-taxing freak!

(Also, I really need VA's results to come in before my head explodes. The news keeps reporting "exciting local developments!" and then it's just DC & MD, and those are big fat duhs as far as their results.)

I'm in Collin County, too - and the thought that my vote might actually make a difference this year was exciting.

It was nice seeing Texas for Obama briefly on the Talking Points Memo map, anyway.

The friend I'm in with in IM and I are both confused by that, because we're not sure what the basis for calling PA quite this early was, since it looks like not that many precincts have reported yet.

MN and WI called for Obama.

I know it's next to impossible for Obama to lose legitimately at this point, but could it still be stolen?

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

Collin County will start to release today's totals at 8:30 CST.

Democratic gains in Senate so far: +4

Here's the best I can come up with:

How to Survive an Avalanche
If you find yourself trapped in an avalanche you have almost no chance of outrunning it. Your goal should be to ride on top of the snow if at all possible, on your belly with head toward the bottom of the slope if at all possible. This way you can steer with your hands (what little steering you can do at 80 MPH) and avoid obstacles as they come at you. Every effort should be made to stay on top of the snow.

If you get buried it is going to take a lot of luck and a quick rescue to save your life. As the snow settles after an avalanche it becomes as hard as concrete. You won't be able to move your arms or legs if they are buried. It is critical to fight panic, your air supply could be very limited and your own body warmth will be working against you. As you exhale you slowly melt the snow above you creating an airtight ice shield over your face with tragic consequences. Limit your breathing as best you can and hope that you are found quickly. Remember that struggling only increases how much air you use but use your best judgment, if you have a pocket that gives you a free hand you could work the snow around it to widen the area you can move around.

But watch out for the retraction of the
laws allowing inter-racial marriage.
Loonies here, some of them.

BTW, could you make SKEIN any more generic?

It's still way too early to be calling PA. I agree it looks good, but it's not over yet.

Until Obama flips a Bush state, PA doesn't matter. PA is a Kerry state.

So, no, we don't get to celebrate yet.

Not sure whether this qualifies as "reasonable" but looking at one of Nate Silver's projections posts from a while back, the few McCain victory scenarios that didn't involve Pennsylvania, appear to have had him needing to win ALL of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Colorado.

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

Local newspapers report that about 70% of Australians would vote for Obama if given the chance.

I'm trying not to think happy thoughts for fear I'll somehow magically jinx the election.

I just got in from a *very* long stint as a Democratic pollwatcher in MD. Before and after work were brutal. I am exhausted and hungry. But it's a good exhaustion.

http://www.isobamapresidentyet.com

If he wins here it's all over.

I also note that Himes is currently up over Shays 65%-35% with 28% precincts in.

All I need are chips and salsa, and that would require walking away from the news feeds for a bit, and I'm not quite prepared to do that.

President, Governor, Senator, and both Representatives.

Jeanne Shaheen is giving her victory speech right now.

Well, I don't know about "reasonable", but there's still plenty of time for Republican vote-stealing.

This is important because King and Pierce Counties contain about a half the state's populatin and King County is dependably the most liberal part of the state. So, I remind my fellow upper-left-hand-corner folks and interested bystanders to abjure freakouts of any sort before 9pm PST, and possibly even 10pm.

Open champagne. Smoke'em if you got'em.

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

Re: turnouts - I meant to mention, by 10am today, 50% of eligible voters in VA had voted, and we don't even have early voting. (At 4:30 I was 479 at my polling place, and at 5:30 my husband was 550ish, so there was still stuff going on this evening.)

Ditto! The NYT map shows Obama catching up; TPM seems to be updating continuously, which makes it hard to see the results.

Game over.

I'm biting my nails while trying to be zen. It's not working. Sigh.

I have high hopes for North Carolina flipping. Liddy Dole did her party no favours in the final run-up, and I know all my friends there (admittedly in the Research Triangle and Durham-Chapel Hill areas) are pro-Obama. They've been showing me pics from rallies.

And CBS just called Ohio for Obama.

I want to see real counts.

No fat ladies singing yet.

Useful for getting a look at what's going on and then switching to the channel you think has the most interesting coverage at a given moment.

OHIO!

(The drop boxes will be picked up at 8pm, and you can also deliver a mail-in ballot to your county courthouse, people in Washington and Oregon, if you really haven't voted yet).

And Cleveland hasn't reported yet (massive Obama support area).

I wish I were British.

If you use your directional arrows on the remote you can choose which of the mini-screens is active.

http://www.pollster.com/

Looks like we're going to have our first woman (and Democratic) governor too.

Dole is giving her (interminably long) concession speech.

Unless McCain wins California (0% chance), Obama will gain enough electoral votes just from the West Coast to win. If NC, VA and FL go for him they won't even be needed.

Now I can sleep....

Please.

Headed home from work now. See you later.

The latest update showed 24% of precints reporting in Ohio. The polls didn't close until 7:30 pm EST, and anyone in line at that time can vote. A lot of ballots haven't arrived at the Boards of Elections yet. Hamilton County (Cincinnati) is expecting to have their results tallied by about midnight.

I'm not believing any presidential results from Ohio until we've got at least 90% - whether that's precints reporting, or votes for Obama.

*A third party candidate is getting significant numbers of votes, and could well tip the race. I just don't know which way it will tip.

Have started my second bottle of wine, just to keep me calm.....

I had it right the first time I tried to post, but that got eaten.

NYT has now called Ohio and Michigan.