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Tonight, or very early tomorrow morning, there should be an amazing meteor shower. These are the Leonids, and they usually turn up around this time; but this year, predictions say they should be something else again. Here’s how NASA explains it. Here’s Sky and Telescope’s version:
Every third of a century, for several Novembers in a row, there is the chance that the Leonids will put on a truly prolific showing. There can be hundreds or even thousands of shooting stars per hour. In fact, we are in this window of potential Leonid storms right now. 85Last year, Patrick and Cory Doctorow and I went and watched the Leonids from the south shore of Staten Island—hardly the best viewing spot in the world, since it’s well within range of New York City’s glow—and the display was still spectacular, huge streaking lines of light across the sky, sometimes several at once. If you could bear to look away you could see the people around you lit up by the nearly continuous meteor flashes.Leonids appear ultrafast compared to the meteors of other showers, for this stream92s particles enter our atmosphere at 71 kilometers per second (near the theoretical speed limit for particles belonging to our solar system). Because of their tremendous speeds, Leonids can be extremely bright and are often tinged with hues of blue or green. Roughly half leave luminous vapor trains 97 some hanging in the air five minutes or more.
The curtain on the current Leonid saga rose in November 1998, just eight months after Comet Tempel-Tuttle passed perihelion. On the night of November 169617 that year, practically the whole world witnessed a remarkable and unexpected 18-hour bombardment of brilliant fireballs, at times numbering up to a few hundred per hour. In 1999 fewer fireballs were seen, but they were replaced by a true storm of more typical Leonids with rates reaching one per second over Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. A very good display (but no storm) appeared in 2000. Then in 2001, not one but two Leonid storms materialized.
And now, in 2002, we prepare for what indeed will be the grand finale. It92s one final opportunity to see Leonid displays capable of producing rates in excess of 1,000 per hour 97 one last chance, for probably a very long time, to see a Leonid storm.
But that was last year, when the estimated peak rate was around 1,300 meteors per hour. One estimate is that this year at peak we’ll see 5,400.
There’s more than one set of predictions for where and when the show will appear. Sky and Telescope is backing this set of predictions, which has an intense first wave peaking around 11:00 EST, and a second wave tomorrow morning when everyone else expects it. (Alas, the first wave will be below the NYC horizon.) Here’s a chart of three teams’ predictions, as calculated for New York City. Here’s Sky and Telescope’s advice on how to watch it.
Two more good general sites to hit for more information: The basic NASA site, which has a very useful chart if you want to know when to look from where you are; and the 2002 Leonid Site.
Last year, you say. Last year I drove out to a quiet country location two hours before the peak moment. Utterly deserted. Then, other people began showing up. Still no problem. But, half an hour before peak, just when the show was really beginning, cars started driving by almost incessantly. With their headlights on. Didn't pipe down until after it was all over. Why were they driving during the show instead of just before and after? I've no idea.
I can't drive further away; it's the middle of the night and I have to go home. I can't go out in the fields away from my car, or the marijuana growers will probably come and shoot me.
I'll probably just give it a miss. Darn it. What I could see last year, desperately trying to readjust my pupils, was still really neat.
Reminds me of my childhood when me and a friend would stay up all night watching Perseids in August. Every year Sky & Telescope would proclaim that year to be the best in 30, 50, 100 years. It became a running joke because it never was.
Many of the meteors this year will be washed out by the glare of the nearly full moon. The ones you will see should be impressive.
Do you remember Halley's and Kohoutek's comets, Scott? Meteor showers, though, I believe in. They've been good, at least lately.
You remember Comets West, Hale-Bopp and Hyutake? Great shows, all three.
Alas, it looks like weather is going to ruin it for me here.
Do whatever you want, but just make sure you chain up your triffids beforehand. I'll be inside, sharpening the lawnmower blades.
Leonids last year were amazing. Just ask Cory.
Last year's Leonids were spectacular. Advantages of living within easy driving distance of dark desert skies.
You beat me to the punch, Paul.
Didn't salt water turn triffids into mush? Or was that just in the movie version?
Of course, all this is academic where I live. Portland moves into the Great Cave With the Dripping Ceiling in about October and doesn't emerge back into the lands of the Great Sky Fire until spring.
Greg, I envy you that sky tonight. Late autumn night, out in the desert -- oh, man. Wave at it for me.
Actually, Teresa, I was sort of thinking about sleeping through it this year, but you might have shamed me into getting out of bed. Of course, my astrophysicist fiance9e may not give me much choice.
Stefan, the salt-melting triffids was gibberish in the (first) movie adaptation, apparently because of the attitude that horror movies had to end on an upbeat note. Hunt down John Wyndham's original novel: it's all three of George Romero's "Living Dead" films with chlorophyll instead of formalin.
Sadly, I had to explain that gag to one of my co-workers today, the same way I had to explain the "Dallas is crawlin' with crackheads and debutantes, and half of 'em play for the Cowboys" crack to my roommate yesterday. And when an article on the three residents of the ISS got a blank stare when I commented that the one who doesn't wash the dishes also has to go into the cargo area to look for the cat...well, I just felt old...
We're going to give it a try although Seattle has been under heavy clouds all day. I've noticed an odd pattern of sudden breaks in the clouds for blue patches of sky and sunshine. Maybe for only an hour or two, but us sunshine junkies *notice*. So maybe there'll be a break in clouds tonight as well.
Sigh. Why couldn't we be at the house in California this week? The Altamont Pass is *super* for meteor shower viewing.
MKK
Looks like fortune is similing, and the clouds are breaking. We'll see.
Paul, I now seem to recall that the whole lighthouse sequence of the movie was tacked on (for the US release?). I did read the novel, long long ago.
"Sadly, I had to explain that gag to one of my co-workers today..."
I had to explain it to an *Oracle VP* a few years back, when I made his day surreal by suggesting that it was a bad idea, given the triffid threat, to encourage the whole video server division to go out and watch the perseids.
Clear as a bell here in Boston (so far). And since my alarm clock right now is a two-year old who's not been sleeping through the nights consistently, well, I might just throw her extra blankets on and take her out to the back yard with me when she wakes us up....
Thanks for the reminder, Teresa. My dad remarked on it yesterday. (He will definitely be up for it too).
Stefan, an understandable *SIGH* coming from this direction. Of course, my smart mouth tends to work much faster than that, which is why I still have an FBI record for allegedly selling government secrets to the Daleks from fifteen years ago. (I keep telling the bastards that I'd never sell government secrets to the Daleks: the Sontarans and the Cybermen pay better.)
One small advantage of frequent insomnia is that
I'm often awake at 5am.
Unfortunately, it is due to be cloudy tomorrow morning in the Pittsburgh area.
I've never seen any Leonids, though I remember seeing some of the Perseads (sic? - the August
meteors) during trips to Maine and Vermont.
I can't believe I am awake at this hour.
I can't believe Columbia doesn't turn off any of their on-campus lights until this hour. I swear it was bright enough to read by (never mind seeing meteors).
There was a high haze, which combined with the moon and the NYC light dome was enough to obscure the little meteors; but the ones we did see were splendid, big broad streaks of light, some of them tinted pale green; and Venus rose out of the ocean, so bright it cast a shining wake across the water.
A few spectacular streaks but not the astronomical extravaganza I was hoping for. Oh well...made a wish...
Certainly not a storm, but a very nice shower. I was able to get away from the worst of St. Louis's light dome. Full moon meant a limiting magnitude of about 3.7. Count from 4:28AM CST to 4:58AM CST was 238, giving me an hourly visual rate of 476. Counting before and after, I probably saw close to 500.
Lots of long streaks, but no major fireballs (typical of the Leonids.) A couple of clearly incidental meteors as well.
Cathy and I woke at 3:30 and were in the car by 4:00. We meandered a little and headed for the Colonial Parkway and found a spot by the York River for a while. The weather was reasonably clear (though we drove through an alarming fog bank on the way)(drive-through fogbank! hardy har) and the temperature was exactly 32F. I was wearing a sweater, my denim jacket, and both coats from the car by the time 5:00 rolled around and we relocated.
We found a new spot on the Yorktown battlefield and watched a while longer. There were some times when several streaks went by at once, but I finally got discouraged when it seemed as though fog was coming in and obscuring even the stationary stars. The moon was still sneering at us, still a couple of hands from the horizon.
About a quarter to six, we went away again. I saw one more good one as we drove home. About the time we reached our neighborhood, the moon looked ready to call it a day, and we were ready to call it a night. I saw a couple dozen good ones. Though disappointed, at least I won't have to feel like it was my fault I missed out.
In addition to the problems Teresa mentioned, I'm right next to a housing project whose exterior is brightly lit.
I saw about five. One left a nice big streak. It was worth it.
Do we get to make wishes on these? I did, just in case.
I'm so jealous. We had a heavy, unbroken layer of clouds. Meteors? Hah!
MKK
Mary Kay - ditto. I woke up around 4:45 and
looked outside. Completely dark - not a visible
star (or even the moon) in sight. Crawled back into
bed for another 45 minutes of dozing.
There was a very brief and fairly spectacular
sunrise around 7:30 however. The clouds parted
briefly to allow a horizontal burst of bright pink
on the eastern horizon.
Aidan was almost in tears this morning because I didn't wake him. "Unbroken layer of heavy cloud" was not enough of an excuse for him, so I've promised a Perseid attempt next year.
Clear here. Walked to the far end of the neighborhood park, the only nearby spot without lights all over. Saw: 1 satellite, 1 apparent meteor (due west, rather far from Leo). Should have stood in bed, sigh.
Well, after all my good intentions, I seem to recall opening one eye this morning at the alarm clock at 4, seeing it was about the right time for it, remembering that, yeah, it wouldn't take much to scramble up and go outside for a look...and then I don't remember anything else until the alarm went off at 6:30.
Yep, that spirit sure is willing....
Mary Kay, Seattle is an amateur astronomer's nightmare. We get comparatively long nights in winter but they're usually overcast. We also get perfectly clear skies with excellent air quality in summer but the nights are comparatively shorter.
