Good post. I have some more links here, if you'd like to scrape any of them:

http://www.pimpjunta.com/?p=110

Posted August 28, 2005 12:41 PM by John Brownlee

Steve Gregory at Weather Underground has also been following Katrina closely.

Posted August 28, 2005 12:49 PM by Richard Parker

Thanks!

Posted August 28, 2005 12:52 PM by Teresa Nielsen Hayden

The weather in New Orleans isn't bad yet, but it looks like the first band of rain could come through soon.

I found some working Webcams of New Orleans:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/index.php?cam=3
http://www.portno.com/cruise_term.htm
http://www.wdsu.com/wxcam/1475332/detail.html

There are many more linked from:

http://www.wxnation.com/neworleans/

However, an awful lot of them are not currently working or are extremely slow.

There was an excellent article in National Geographic last fall about what a large hurricane could do to New Orleans:

http://magma.nationalgeographi c.com/ngm/0410/feature5/

The whole article isn't online (without a membership), but if you have access to last October's National Geographic, it's worth a look.

And Katarina could be WORSE than the storm depicted in the article.

The south coast - a lovely place to visit, but live there?

Hopefully, if any of you are in that area, you're reading this from a safe location.

And CNN's QuickVote question this morning was:

Do you believe global warming is
a factor behind the recent severe weather?

So far it's 58% yes, 30% no, 12% not sure.

Posted August 28, 2005 12:53 PM by Laurie Mann

The change in the hurricane's structure between last night and this morning is genuinely frightening. It's a much larger story with a really huge, well-defined eye. Weather Underground reported something like a 20-degree temperature change between the rest of the storm and the eyewall which is almost unprecedented.

Posted August 28, 2005 12:56 PM by Laurie Mann

I wonder if she might be large enough and strong enough to overwhelem the river constrainment keeping the Mississipi from moving into the Atchafalaya.

Just a thought.

TK

Posted August 28, 2005 12:58 PM by Terry Karney

In past hurricane seasons, this Navy site:
Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
and this site for:
GOES satellite photos (near real-time)
have been extremely useful.

From what I understand of the Navy site, it uses a Delphi type method to automatically combine all the predictions from other forecasting systems and arrive at an average. It's usually pretty close.

It, like all the others, is forecasting virtually a dead-on hit on New Orleans. I've always wanted to go there; now I'm wondering if I'll ever be able to.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:28 PM by Clifton Royston

Seem to recall the last every-five-years global climate conference summary report had a mention of being undecided over whether the hurricane categories would need to go up to seven or eight by 2050.

If you look at this NASA climate study, complete with conservative assumptions about climate change, and you get 'minimal category five' as the peak of the distribution curve -- the average hurricane of a world that's experienced moderate global warming.

Which means that what we're about to see with Katrina is only moderately above the expected future average for hurricane strength.

That expected future average produced by the simulation has 923 millibars eye pressure as the mean achieved; 908 is getting through 'Yikes!' and well into 'not so good' territory if I'm reading that graph correctly.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:36 PM by Graydon

what a frightening thing. I've been keeping tabs on Katrina since I discovered that some of my co-workers would be in Miami; now I'm holding on and hoping that my friends in NOLA are already out.

In the meanwhile, I'm watching the causeway cam, hoping to see a car I recognize, and I see that some people are still driving into NOLA. People are fascinating.

there's also the oil price hike this will cause, as the Gulf oil rigs shut down. I liked the BBC's reporting of it here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4192528.stm

Posted August 28, 2005 1:36 PM by risa

On global climate change and storm intensity, from the experts:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=173

More questions than answers, but if next year the Gulf storms are extraordinarily intense, I think it'll be likely that this is the new climate for the Gulf.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:38 PM by Randolph Fritz

I hope I sound just as bitter as I feel when I say: how long do you estimate before somebody pops up saying that God smote the city because of its sins?

Posted August 28, 2005 1:39 PM by Anna Feruglio Dal Dan

p.s. - i think it was Jeff Morrow echoing Mooney's words.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:42 PM by risa

The exact phrase from the National Hurricane Center -- guys not prone to hyperbole -- is thus.

"KATRINA IS COMPARABLE ININTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER"

The satellite presentation is here. The words "textbook" are being used to describe it.

Andrew hit Florida with central pressure of 922 millibars (27.23in/Hg) Camille hit at 909mBar (26.84in/Hg).

Katrina, at last report, is at 906 mBar.

This storm is acting like a Hollywood plotline.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:44 PM by Erik V. Olson

A long-favorite bit of doggerel just popped into my mind:

May Providence, who watches over drunkards and fools
With silent miracles and other esoterica
Continue to suspend the customary rules
And preserve the United States of America

Posted August 28, 2005 1:47 PM by Clifton Royston

I've been watching the news about Katrina for the last two or three days and I have not been able to get that hurricane risk article from last year out of my mind. I've never even been to the city, and the idea of it being drowned is devastating. I find there's a part of me surprisingly sympathetic to those who won't leave.

Man, I hope I'll still have a chance to see the part of New Orleans that makes it Nawlins. :/

-Catie

Posted August 28, 2005 1:47 PM by C.E. Murphy

American Public Media has a terrifying projection of what could happen to New Orleans if hit by a category 5 here. One of the scientists interviewed mentions that because of wetlands destruction, the coast has lost some of its buffering against hurricanes--but this storm seems big enough that that protection might not have counted for much anyway.

Posted August 28, 2005 1:55 PM by Jackmormon

My boyfriend has been to New Orleans. I have never been, and now it looks like I might never get to go, at least not the city that my friends remember. I hope it's not so bad, but those reports coming in don't look good.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:08 PM by PiscusFiche

Words fail me. New Orleans is one of my favorite towns and I've been wanting to visit again for several months. I've actually made tentative plans to go next month but I guess I'm not going to get to.

Also, someone very dear to me lives there. I guess I'd better go hunting for that report in page. And try to call him too.

Goddammit.

MKK

Posted August 28, 2005 2:22 PM by Mary Kay

Here's a live news feed from New Orleans: http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

What I've been seeing over at Weather Underground indicates that emergency management in New Orleans has been privatized, so that evacuation became a business decision. If that's true, someone should be held criminally liable for not calling the evacuation sooner.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:24 PM by Deanna Hoak

Here's an "Urgent Weather Message" that was issued by the National Weather Service for New Orleans at 10:11 this morning (CDT). I have never seen the NWS use language like this. It's nauseating:

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA

A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL OLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Posted August 28, 2005 2:28 PM by Rose

Deanna, can you give me links on that?

Anna, the trouble with declaring this to be God's punishment for sins is that Florida has been getting hit much, much harder.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:30 PM by Teresa Nielsen Hayden

MKK - No reason to be especially bitter about the privitization, evacuation orders have always been as much economic and political as public safety driven.

Imagine the cost of evacuating metro Seattle against a chance of, say, a possible explosive eruption of Mt. Rainier. Our geography makes a sensible evacuation difficult (ahh, life on an isthmus) and the costs would range from food spoilage, lost wages, lost sales and lost productivity right up to the inevitable loss of life on the freeways as everyone flees towards BC and the other side of the Cascades.

Still, scary news to wake up to and I'll keep the people of the Gulf Coast in my thoughts throughout the day.

From the Aieee! file, the pressure has just dropped to 902mb as per the Weather Channel. Damn.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:35 PM by Larry Brennan

Thanks, Teresa. I'm passing along links and info to my friends to see that relays are in place.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:36 PM by Bruce Baugh

There's a poster on the Weather Underground site who keeps advising people to treat this like a tornado, and hunker down in the lowest part of their house with mattresses over the tub and all that. I see his point, but:

A) Tornados have much less advance warning than a hurricane, and practically no evacuation time.

B) Did he overlook the part about New Orleans flooding??

Gahr.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:36 PM by PiscusFiche

Whoops, sorry MKK, I read your comment and Deanna Hoak's together and addressed the wrong person.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:37 PM by Larry Brennan

Anna, I can understand your bitterness, but statements that cities (which, in this circumstance, can mean any habitation of more than one building) are being smitten because of their wickedness are a matter of routine; with a city such as New Orleans, it would be more significant if someone didn't cite the presumed wrath of a presumed wrathful deity.

It is indeed wearying and sad that, for so many people, the Awesome and Subtle Genius of the Universe is, well, themselves, with infinite (though mundanely applied) power, zero responsibility, and the ability to consume lipids, simple sugars, and alcohol without physical consequence, but from the evidence this projection of ego has been with us since the moment of Apeiron. And it's just as apparent that while the deity, if such there is, cares for these souls, she, he or it doesn't take their advice.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:39 PM by John M. Ford

If you search for "privatization" in this huge page of links, you'll find a post by someone called "Selu" who blames privatization and offers this URL.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:42 PM by Deanna Hoak

the NOAA has a weather tracker here that puts everything they have for Katrina in one location.

the news keeps getting worse, like with this most recent warning that states "HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES."

Posted August 28, 2005 2:49 PM by risa

Larry, I live on Merritt Island, Florida, and we're evacuated at the drop of a hat. The meteorologists on Weather Underground were urging people to leave far before the call for voluntary evacuation happened in New Orleans, and I can't help but feel that a) the evacuation was far overdue, and b) there wasn't an adequate plan in place to deal with this, despite the fact that everyone knew what a catastrophe a storm like this would be.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:49 PM by Deanna Hoak

I was in New Orleans a couple of years ago, when we took a trip there for our anniversary. It's an amazing place. The idea of this happening there is almost more than I can get my head around, and I don't have words to express how much it fills me with despair.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:50 PM by Dan Layman-Kennedy

Hunting around a bit through Wikipedia, I found the following:

Looking at the MPH ranges for sustained windspeed in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, I see that most of the categories cover a roughly 20-MPH range. Category 1, for example, is 74-95 MPH. Category 5 is 156 MPH or higher; I figure if they had a Category 6, it'd probably start around 175 MPH, give or take a few.

Looking at the entry for Hurricane Katrina, I see that it may have "maximum sustained winds as high as 175 mph" when it makes landfall tomorrow.

Posted August 28, 2005 2:58 PM by Avram

I recall something about New Orleans being right where the river would go if it wanted to form an Oxbow Lake -- not a recent idea.

I was watching a program about the achaeology of the Fens in England -- Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, and Norfolk -- and the slightly higher ground where the old villages are built are old river beds. You can see the same pattern with the Google Earth images of the area between Baton Rouge and the sea, and the Mississippi could end up bypassing Baton Rouge and reaching the sea some 70 miles west of New Orleans.

Not that New Orleans is going to be any less wet. And the descriptions of the wind damage are a lot like the descriptions of the expected blast damage from nearby nuclear weapons.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:05 PM by Dave Bell

On a weather page being broadcast by the BBC, the New Orleans weather forecast for Monday:

"Sunny intervals"

It's a very summaried world weather forecast on the BBCi system.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:12 PM by Dave Bell

There's been some conversation about extending the scale in recent years. I hope to hell this isn't our first Category 6 hurricane, and the human race's amazing luck holds out for a major shot across the bow.

This is playing out like a disaster movie script. It hurts to breathe.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:12 PM by elizabeth bear

i've heard/read a rumor that NOLA will shut the roads from all traffic at 6 pm, and i read in this article from the Guardian that people who could not evacuate (a really large no. of people there lack transportation) are being encouraged to go to the Superdome or other shelters to wait it out. a quote:

"The Superdome, the 70,000-seat home of football's Saints and the New Year's Sugar Bowl, opened at daybreak Sunday, giving first priority to frail, elderly people on walkers, some with oxygen tanks. They were told to bring enough food, water and medicine to last up to five days."

Posted August 28, 2005 3:14 PM by risa

You know what changed this from an interesting disaster story to the personal? A friend's frail and elderly parents were taking vacation this week in NO... and now they're stuck in a downtown hotel, unable to evacuate. My heart goes out to all in, and all outside the city/parish/state/disaster area who have dear ones stuck inside.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:20 PM by Connie

The web cam site at nola.com seems to be overloading.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:31 PM by Dave Bell

According to Stormtrack, the latest report on Katrina shows it strengthening further to 902millibars and 184mph winds. I feel dazed just reading the coverage.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:37 PM by Clifton Royston

Clifton, did you catch the report of tornadoes inside the hurricane? This, in a storm that's already the equivalent of an F3 tornado.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:39 PM by Teresa Nielsen Hayden

It looks like most of the webcams are shutting down now anyway. The LA DOT cams haven't been updated since yesterday. The northern Causeway camera is still working, and shows a huge traffic backup.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:43 PM by Alan Hamilton

Satellite picture of cloud cover are showing the hurricane as the centre of a weather pattern with effects visible as far north as Washington DC.

Reports of heavy traffic on Jefferson Highway and Airline.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:50 PM by Dave Bell

WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS

Incredible is exactly the word, because I don't believe this report is genuine. It is sort of written in NWS style -- ALL CAPS...WITH PERIOD GROUPS INSTEAD OF COMMAS...AND SHORT PHRASES. But the language isn't right, and while I've seen the body text in three or four places, I've never actually seen the header. Furthermore, ALL NWS alerts have the listing of affected areas, and "INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING" isn't right -- it's just "INLAND HURRICANE WARNING". NWS forecasters are very careful when they're using thier own jargon, because there's lots of meaning behind them, and saying warning when you don't mean it causes real problems.

Furthermore, NWSFO LIX, New Orelans/Baton Rouge, LA, doesn't have a copy posted, though they have plenty of Scary Announcements of thier own. I'm going to go check the National Hurricane Center to see if it is one of thiers, but LSI doesn't have anything like this posted -- and they post *everything* they release.

So, as of now, I've gotta treat that one as bogus, unless I can find a copy actually posted from the NWS.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:50 PM by Erik V. Olson

Fuck.

It's real: WWUS74 KLIX 281550. It was filed as a non-precipitation warning, not a Hurricane Local Statement, which meant I had to dig it out of IWIN.

This is a current link, but it won't stay current as new statements push it down, then off the page.

Posted August 28, 2005 3:58 PM by Erik V. Olson

Eric, the Drudge Report has a copy of that announcement, including header and a list of affected areas at the end (although it may very well still be bogus - I have no way of knowing that).

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

Posted August 28, 2005 4:01 PM by Livia

Eric, unfortunately the NWS statement is true. the link is here.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:09 PM by Jane Washburn

235000 "heater meals" and 50 Red Cross volunteers ready in Baton Rouge, which seems to be the staging area for the relief effort.

35 minutes to revised predictions of the track.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:10 PM by Dave Bell

One thing about weather forums during a big storm: there's always some guy who's jumping up and down "I called this 5 days ago!", as if he'd caused it with his mighty weather powers.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:11 PM by DonBoy

Hi, Erik. I took that from here:

http://www.nola.com/weather/parishes/plaquemines.html

I had trouble finding it on the NHC site, since it's hard (for me) to find the parish-by-parish listings there. Does this bit of header help? "WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX" The affected areas list came at the end, of course: "LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005"

The same language is being reported by the Times-Pic folks, under the headline "NWS outlines grim forecast of devastion expected across area"; here's the link:
http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_08.html#074533

I'm a regular reader of NOAA for weather news and had never seen anything that sounded anything like this, Erik. Part of me would love to hear that it's not true, but I kind of think that this is what happens when someone is sitting there at the keyboard, typing, thinking to themselves, "Is anyone Listening? Don't you Get It? This is It! I mean Destruction, People! Unremitting Misery!"

Posted August 28, 2005 4:12 PM by Rose

I'm a regular reader of NOAA for weather news and had never seen anything that sounded anything like this, Erik.

So am I, and neither had I, which is why it rang false -- then I (finally) found the acutal postings, with full headers and footers, and well, fuck.

LIX, unlike LSX (St. Louis) and MOB (Mobile, AL,) doesn't have a quick link to the text products -- which is why it took a while to find the acutal text. Indeed, if I hadn't found it before I'd seen the reference to Drudge, I would have then assumed it to be Yet Another Drudge Fake.

Alas, it is real.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:21 PM by Erik V. Olson

Anyone find a check-in page yet? Post a link if so, please.

Thanks.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:25 PM by Joe Rybicki

According to the TV advertising, there's a furniture store in New Orleans doing a special sale tomorrow afternoon...

Posted August 28, 2005 4:34 PM by Dave Bell

Check in:

http://webnews.sff.net/read?cmd=xover&group=sff.discuss.hurricane-katrina-check-in

Pass the word.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:39 PM by James D. Macdonald

And now I'm hearing lists of shelters being opened. And I have to wonder if the structures will stand up to the weather.

Posted August 28, 2005 4:40 PM by Dave Bell

Dave, there's a question as to whether or not even the Superdome will hold... at that point the rest of it is academic, I think. :(

Posted August 28, 2005 4:44 PM by risa

Real Emergency Preparedness here at Making Light.

Posted August 28, 2005 5:04 PM by James D. Macdonald

They just updated the NOAA advisory -- minimum central pressure is down to 902 mB, and they've added a tornado warning: "ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE."

Speaking for myself I'm glad I'm on the other side of the Atlantic -- and kicking myself for not filling up my gas tank when I took the car out this afternoon.

Why am I having flashovers to Bruce Sterling's "Heavy Weather"?

Posted August 28, 2005 5:24 PM by Charlie Stross

I see it's due to make landfall around 7am CDT tomorrow, one hour before high tide. Fuck. I also see that NOAA give a 10% probability of wind speeds as high as 180mph (300km/h!) around that time, and a low 10% probability for wind speeds as slow as 145mph.

Why have I got a feeling that this is going to be like 9/11, only with 24 hours' notice and an order of magnitude bigger?

Posted August 28, 2005 5:27 PM by Charlie Stross

See also John Barnes' Mother of Storms.

Posted August 28, 2005 5:50 PM by James D. Macdonald

I'm watching TV news, there's people who couldn't be evacuated streaming into the Superdome and they're clearly terrified.

I've been through a worse storm than this -- the anemometer blew off at 210mph 6 hours into a 24-hour typhoon -- when we were stationed on Guam. Water was definitely a problem. I used loose Quonset hut pieces to make rain collectors on the roof, and ended up telling neighbors how to make them, and that was our "clean" water for six weeks. We got power back two weeks later.

But Guam is small and when Typhoon Karen passed over, it was over. New Orleans and environs are big, with a lot more room to do damage.

Posted August 28, 2005 6:15 PM by Marilee

And Guam wouldn't turn into a lake. The winds are bad, no mistake, but the disaster comes from Mew Orleans being 6' feet below sea level, protected by 12' levees, and facing a 25' storm surge.

Posted August 28, 2005 6:25 PM by James D. Macdonald

I think I need to pack my duffle bag; just in case the call-up for Louisiana troops (and oh! how it sucks to be deployed when something like this happens. I was not allowed to be called up (though SSG Andrushka, in my unit of assignment at the time was) for the Northridge Earthquake, it was mind-numbing to be so far from it) gets spread out to other states.

This I can live with being deployed for, it's why I joined the Guard, not the Reserve.

Posted August 28, 2005 6:50 PM by Terry Karney

Terry--

I've been doing a lot of thinking this afternoon about our guardsmen and women, the ones far away from home, who are about to be desperately needed to do what they signed on for.

And I just wanna say thanks, man.

Posted August 28, 2005 6:53 PM by elizabeth bear

Poppy Z. Brite refuses to evacuate. Is there any way to talk sense into them?

Posted August 28, 2005 7:06 PM by Lisa Hertel

It may be worth pointing out, for those who don't know, that something nearly like this happened to Galveston, Texas in 1900.

I think it's well worth reading this particular description of the aftermath.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:10 PM by Brooks Moses

By now, going by what was being said on TV, it's likely to be too late. Several Louisiana Parishes have started curfews, Police, Fire, and EMS are holing up for the storm, and the weather is getting pretty bad for trying to drive out.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:13 PM by Dave Bell

I had the oddball thought just now, and felt the need to share it with someone: I'm glad George Effinger isn't in the midst of it, or trying to deal with it from a distance. He had enough on his plate.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:14 PM by Bruce Baugh

I get the impression that up until this morning, the bars down in Bourbon Street were planning to stay open thorugh the storm, as usual. But AP has a story by Allen Breed this afternoon that just about everybody is boarding up and getting out if they can. There are always execptions like Mary Lind:

"My son's having a fit," the 56-year-old real estate agent said as she drove to Matassa's for some last-minute provisions. "We're kind of a different breed of people down here, people in the Quarter. Heck, if we can put up with Mardi Gras, we can put up with a hurricane."

Posted August 28, 2005 7:15 PM by Claude Muncey

Having watched an interview with the mayor about an hour or so ago via
http://www.wwltv.com/
[popup alert]
I was struck by how well spoken, calm, and intelligent he seemed. When pressed to describe what the probable aftermath, you could see that he was very carefully describing what he really thought possible, with no "politician puffery." Darn. Why can't we have that guy for president?

The bit that sticks in my mind was an estimate* of 6 weeks of no electricity in New Orleans.

He also frankly acknowleged the difficulties of getting the pumps running again, reminding the viewers that they only pump "one or two" inches an hour running full speed. He also frankly acknowledged that with people's cars most likely fully tanked up, that after a week or so of being underwater, that they would certainly leak, and that it would be very difficult to clean up N.O.

He did say that prior to the storm surge that they were going to directly flush the entire sewer system into the gulf, and that it was likely that flushing would be available in the near aftermath. He also estimated that about 80% of the city's residents had been successfully evacuated, which he considered to be beyond an excellent result. (60% would have been considered excellent.) He even frankly acknowleged that there would be many, many casualties. Talk about a class act.

I'll be praying for those in the path.
-R.

p.s.Useful links:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=129&tstamp=200508&allcomments=1
If you are a ham radio operator, note this:
http://www.hwn.org/home/activationplans.html
The Hurricane Watch Net will activate Sunday afternoon at 2:00 p.m. CDT - 1900 UTC on 14.325 MHz

*I could have sworn he said "minimum", but I don't know.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:15 PM by Rhandir

Terry: What Elizabeth Bear said.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:15 PM by Patrick Nielsen Hayden

Lisa, my understanding from a mutual friend is that Poppy's on her way out. She'll update her blog on LJ when she's landed.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:18 PM by risa

Anna: Not long at all.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:28 PM by Josh Jasper

And in other effects: Crude oil futures leap $4, to $70.80, at open, according to AP. The story is from Signapore, but references the New York Merchantile Exchange (NYMEX.)

Posted August 28, 2005 7:38 PM by Erik V. Olson

Oh yeah. Stay behind during a hurricane. Real friggin bright. Even if emergency services dosen't ahve to save you, being stuck in a devestated town full of contaminated water, with most of the SANE people (inncluding non emergency services DOCTORS) gone means you'll be a drain on emergency services no matter what.

Assholes.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:50 PM by Josh Jasper

Had been trying to reach my family this morning--their cell phone carrier has been overwhelmed. Finally heard from Mom. She's evacuated to Hot Springs along with my grandmother. My brother's with some friends headed out of town.

First thing my mom said: "I'm afraid you won't have a home to come home to."

What scares me is knowing that two of my uncles and my dad, all of them medical professionals, have opted to stay: Dad at Touro Hospital, and my uncles in St. Tammany. It's said that no good deed goes unpunished; I'm hoping the universe makes an exception. If the storm destroys the family business (Dr.s LeBoeuf & Buras, Pediatrics), that at least can be rebuilt. But the casualty predictions are scaring me half to death. I'd like to have a Dad when this is over.

(He and my uncles are not likely to even know about check-in web pages, much less visit them.)

And my sister-in-law, who along with her boyfriend chose to celebrate their anniversary in New Orleans this weekend--they're in Covington with the owner of the bed & breakfast they were staying at. I'm scared that it won't be far enough away.

So here I am in Colorado feeling intensely helpless. The actions available to me: Pray, light candles, send good magickal energy, worry.

I love my hometown beyond reason. I can't fathom a world in which it's missing.

My heart goes out to all others directly and indirectly affected. For what good that'll do.

risa--I hope you're right about PZB. Keep us posted if she doesn't.

Posted August 28, 2005 7:53 PM by Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little

Anna FDD and Josh Jasper: It comes from both sides. I've seen two people, on two different mailing lists, cracking wise about divine vengeance on the red states. Fun fact: Orleans parish (containing New Orleans) went for Kerry by better than 3:1...

Posted August 28, 2005 8:45 PM by Charles Dodgson

Nicole - I shall. I'm wishing and willing the best of luck to your family; I'll definitely be thinking of them through this week.

Posted August 28, 2005 8:48 PM by risa

Charles: thanks for making that comment! I think a lot of people are unaware that many cities in red states voted overwhelmingly for Kerry (Atlanta being another example).

Posted August 28, 2005 8:56 PM by risa

Josh, I've got family in Houma, Lake Charles and Vinton, which should be (relatively) fine as they are both near the Texas border. I grew up in the piney woods near Shreveport. At one time the the old-timers in and around NOLA and in Acadiana thought they could ride out anything. When you consider the limited warning before the 1960's and their lack of both resources and good evacuation routes, it was understandable. What cannot be cured must be endured, and if you can make it an excuse for a good party, fine. Laissez le bon ton roulez!

Then came 1969, and Hurricane Camille, which changed how govenments in the South saw hurricanes and evacuation, and which changes how a lot of people viewed "riding one out". Anyone who has been in or near a hurricane (in my case sitting in a school hallway waiting out a tornado spun off of Carla) knows in their bones to get the fuck out of the way. These days you do not get a choice about evacuation -- a policeman or guardsman pounds on your door, hands you a copy of the evacuation order, with a map on the back of evacuation routes, and instructs you on when you have to be gone by. If you refuse, you have to sign a release, which they generally inform you will be used to "provide a list to help identify the dead". They don't bother to argue, they don't have the time. Those who are left are the poor, the unlucky, the procrastinators, and the drunk. By now, the real old-timers are well past Baton Rouge -- this is one to ride out in Dallas or Tulsa.

Posted August 28, 2005 8:59 PM by Claude Muncey

Also, hurricanes do not help my command of grammar . . .

Posted August 28, 2005 9:01 PM by Claude Muncey

I don't believe in gods, but I really don't believe in a God who would wait n months and then kill people because of who they voted for. If nothing else, an omniscient being who wanted to pick the winner of an election could do so by any number of methods both subtler and more effective.

Posted August 28, 2005 9:01 PM by Vicki

Nicole, at least your Dad and your uncles have a constructive reason to be in New Orleans right now. I really respect them for that, but I don't blame you for being worried.

Remember Nolacon? Back in 1988, the remenents of a little hurricane hit New Orleans, on the Saturday of Worldcon, I think it was. The main thing I remember is that you walked through 1-2 inches of water crossing Canal St. to go between the hotels. And that was at a time when we got about 4-6" of rain and all of the pumps were working.

That's why talk of a real hurricane hitting New Orleans has scared me so much.

There is one tiny bit of good news. I'm looking at the NOAA map right now, and it looks like Katrina is going slightly west of New Orleans. This is really good news, if the hurricane stays on that course. We could only be talking about a few 100 or 1000 dead rather than the 10,000s of dead a more easterly-path (over Lake Ponchatrain) would mean. It might not quite be "the perfect storm" after all.

Posted August 28, 2005 9:02 PM by Laurie Mann

Unfortunately, slightly west isn't usually good news -- the worst of the storm occurs in its eastern quadrant, as it makes landfall, because that's the side that has the most power. It'd have to be a lot west to help NO.

-l.

Posted August 28, 2005 9:06 PM by LauraJMixon

Yikes, Laura, you're right. Sorry I pointed that out then, I'd forgotten the way the winds whip around.

Posted August 28, 2005 9:11 PM by Laurie Mann

It's traking right along the UKMET line -- which is just exactly wrong for New Orelans and the Mississippi river -- buoys in the gulf are showing 30' seas.

The latest from Jeff Masters is about as bad as it gets.

The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%.

If you must stay, he suggests you wear a lifejacket and a helmet.

Posted August 28, 2005 9:46 PM by Erik V. Olson

My search fu is weak. I've been trying to figure out if New Jersey has storm surge evacuation zones along the same lines as New York City's, but I can't find anything. Is this info hidden somewhere I haven't looked yet, or is NYC just ahead of the curve in planning for real life with millions of people in a small area?

Posted August 28, 2005 9:58 PM by Tayefeth

Anna -- just imagine how uncomfortable those people will be when some radical Islamist says the hurricane is Allah's judgment on the entire country.

Note that patience with that class of attitude is wearing thin here. The Rev. Fred Phelps (gaybaiter-in-chief, head of a "church" that AP says is mostly his relatives) showed up at a military funeral to say the soldiers died because they were defending a country that tolerated gays; he was shouted down. (Phelps strikes me as the sort of clown who belongs in G&S. I wonder if it's within my free speech rights to lead a chorus of shouting "Oni bikkuri shakkuri to!" the whenever he shows up around here....)

Posted August 28, 2005 10:28 PM by CHip

Claude, I don't think the people in the articles I've read are drunk. I think they're just being macho assholes.

Posted August 28, 2005 10:29 PM by Josh Jasper

Um . . . is it too soon to ask what charities and emergency organizations are going to need donations?

Posted August 28, 2005 11:02 PM by Stefan Jones

Charlie Stross wrote:

> Why am I having flashovers to Bruce Sterling's "Heavy Weather"?

John Barnes _Mother of Storms_ for me, but same deal.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:07 PM by Steve Taylor

Tayefeth - I've seen hurricane evacuation signs scattered randomly around Essex and Union counties, so there must be some sort of planning. Unfortunately, the signs are just about as connected and useful as a sign saying "Triboro Bridge" with an arrow at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets.

I had no idea that NYC had storm surge evacuation routes, and half my old neigborhood (Canarsie) was clearly at risk. Good on them if they've got them planned and posted!

Similarly, I'm sure that Seattle has tsunami evacuation routes, but darned if I've ever seen a sign. (My plan is to go up Phinney Ridge. If the wave gets up there, there'd be no getting away anyway.)

Posted August 28, 2005 11:08 PM by Larry Brennan

Nicole,

I'd worry quite a bit about Covington/Mandeville/Abita. The lake should be a big problem. My sister and brother-in-law left at 2AM this morning and are now in Dallas, but they don't expect that the house they've got about half built will survive. Still, better the house then the family. We don't know about my sister's in-laws, but she says that friends who fled to Jackson, MS, are now packing up and heading further inland.

Much as I dislike "weather porn" and as much as I will revile the weathermen who stand out in the freakin' storm for grandstanding's sake, this seems very serious.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:10 PM by Michael Croft

Stefan: Anyplace that takes blood.

TK

Posted August 28, 2005 11:11 PM by Terry Karney

Lisa:

Poppy Brite evacuated today to inland Mississippi. I can understand why she thought she would rather die, but I am glad she chose otherwise.

Stefan:

I would say, all of them.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:12 PM by Kevin J. Maroney

Watching the coverage on CNN this morning and afternoon, we were wondering which would go first, the river levees or the lakeside levees. My sister really enjoys NO for the food; guess that's in the past. Although people who are determined can do a lot of things that seems impossible. (I remember hearing about Hilda from people who were there for her. Thank you, I'll skip the experience.)

and slightly off topic: Just as there are blue areas in red states, there are red areas in blue states. California's Central Valley, outside of Sacramento and its neighbors, is very red, to the point where I am sometimes glad it's outvoted.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:20 PM by P J Evans

From dKos: Give Money Only, and Give to the Red Cross

Posted August 28, 2005 11:45 PM by Anarch

Poppy Z. Brite's latest post is up.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:56 PM by Karin K

WWL, the local TV station, just shut down their studio and handed operations over to Baton Rouge. They were carrying a press conference with a NWS meteorologist who stated that the storm has measured gusts of 190 mph. Should be weaker by the time it makes landfall, of course.

Stormtrack has a useful link to a NOAA page of wave bouy data. The one in the northeast quadrant of the storm is seeing 48 knot gusts and thirty-foot swells.

Posted August 28, 2005 11:57 PM by alex

I saw on the news that there were long lines of people trying to get into the Superdome, but they had to wait because of the security procedures, checking baggage. Geez, are they more afraid of potential terrorists than they are of an actual Level 5 hurricane?

Also a family in a community on the actual coast planning to ride out the hurricane on their shrimpboat: a young couple, who looked to be in their twenties, if that, who didn't think they had any other alternative -- and their 3-year-old daughter!

When my brother-in-law was in the Air Force and my sister was pregnant with their first baby, they were stationed in Biloxi. This was 1973, four years after Camille, and the area was still recovering. My sister was amazed at the devastation still visible.

Lots of prayers and good wishes for everyone in the Gulf area. Especially those who can't get out, like that young family, those like Nicole's family who are staying to help, and those like Terry's National Guard unit whose help will be needed all too soon.

Posted August 29, 2005 12:11 AM by Lois Aleta Fundis

Thank you for all the good thoughts. Mine go out to all of you, too.

What makes me absolutely sick is the continued cell phone silence. The song of the day is "Your Call Cannot Be Completed At This Time." The last time we spoke was about two weeks ago when no one knew this was coming.

I don't know what to think. Clockwise thoughts, I guess.

Posted August 29, 2005 12:13 AM by Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little

Health and Welfare Inquiry form for the Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio Network. (Ham Radio)
http://qso.com/satern/emailfrm.htm

Quote: "Please use this form to submit your inquiry. Your inquiry will be sent to the disaster area, where SATERN personnel will attempt to locate the person or persons about whom you are inquiring. Please supply as much information as possible."

About donations:

Red cross blood drive locator: (crappy flash interface)
https://www.givelife.org/index_flash.cfm

Red cross online donation site:
https://www.redcross.org/donate/donation-form.asp

Red cross phone donations:
http://www.redcross.org/donate/donatephone.html

Bonus points to anyone who can teach me how to use google maps to locate blood drives.

Words fail me. I can't describe the irritation I feel towards other disaster relief groups that have failed to customize their websites to enble donations for this disaster. I mean, really, you'd think they'd have enough time to fix it by now. Likewise for the flash interface for the blood drive locator.

Thanks TNH, for posting this topic. I wouldn't have found out about this thing until tomorrow if it wasn't for the rss feed from your site. Thanks group, for the links, insightful commentary, etc. Your "ongoing coverage" of this event has the bbc/nytimes/weather channel beat all hollow.

R.

Additonal links:
Ham radio alert:
http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2005/08/28/100/?nc=1
"As usual, during any net activation, we encourage all mariners and residents in and around the affected area to come to the net frequency (14.325 MHz) for all the latest information and for the purpose of providing reports of conditions in your area,"

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org/

Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center
http://www.wx4nhc.org/

Posted August 29, 2005 12:16 AM by Rhandir

Two of the cams in NO show no image.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/index.php?cam=3

I remember George Alec Effinger and Debbie Hodgkinson fleeing New Orleans before an incoming hurricane--this was many years ago. They weren't sure there would be anything to return to. That time, there was. I'm glad George missed this--he loved his city, and losing it would tear him up.

Posted August 29, 2005 12:20 AM by Kathi

I've put up a new blog here for informaton sources and "I'm OK" messages. I'll be posting URLs of contact lists as they become available.

Posted August 29, 2005 12:34 AM by Patrick Connors

I saw on the news that there were long lines of people trying to get into the Superdome, but they had to wait because of the security procedures, checking baggage. Geez, are they more afraid of potential terrorists than they are of an actual Level 5 hurricane?

I had an initial 'stupid homeland securitism' reaction to that, too, but someone pointed out that in two or three days there are going to be thousands of people in 100+ degree heat with minimal water and sanitation and that it would be a Very Good Idea if none of them had knives or guns when tempers start to fray.

Posted August 29, 2005 12:39 AM by tavella

Nicole, I know it's impossible to not worry at a time like this, and you have every right to.

But don't let the phone thing get to you too badly. Any major disaster usually shuts down an area's phone system because everyone tries to call everyone else. We haven't really seen it with cell phones before, but I think that's because there weren't as many. Now that there are, it's possible that they are suffering from the same problems as land lines.

I first noticed this during the Mt St. Helens eruption - we all wondered how ash affected phone lines. It took a while for someone to figure out that once everyone had the lawn furniture in, and the livestock under cover, no one had much to do except watch the TV and call the relatives. This lasted for a couple of days - I don't think phone service was reliable until about four days after the eruption.

I saw it a little during the Nisqually quake, and on a localized level, every time the Mariners and Sonics went to the playoffs (the company I worked for was on the same exchange as the ticket office).

In all of these cases the only problem was that the system was overloaded - there was _no_ infrastructure destruction. New Orleans and the area around it will lose infrastructure, including cell phone towers - and none of this will help any, of course.

So, I think I'm trying to say is the phone silence, at least, may not be a very good indicator of how your relatives are doing.

I'm also going to say that I will be praying with special intentions for them, their work, and their safety tonight, and for you, too. It sounds like it will be a very bad night.

Margaret Organ-Kean

Posted August 29, 2005 12:45 AM by Margaret Organ-Kean

Thanks, Margaret. I know that phone silence doesn't mean that disaster has already struck. All it means is, I can't talk to him. What devastates me is not knowing if I'll ever be able to again.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:02 AM by Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little

Josh Jasper: hp nthr y nr nyn y cr bt vr gts cght n dsstr. I have a very very dear friend who lives in the French Quarter and has no car. He can't get out so he's making noise about how he thinks they'll make it through ok. Ever hear of whistling in the dark? vr hr f mpthy y sl-dd jrk? People do a lot of foolish things when they're scared. hp y nvr hv t fnd t.

MKK

Posted August 29, 2005 1:09 AM by Mary Kay

>What devastates me is not knowing if I'll ever be able to again.

I wish I had some useful comfort for you. I really do. I can only pray.

Margaret Organ-Kean

Posted August 29, 2005 1:13 AM by Margaret Organ-Kean

Jesus. I didn't know. I'm sorry to have bothered people with trivia, now.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:21 AM by Dave Luckett

Nicole - This is one of those times when I wished I believed in prayer. All I can offer is my hope - and hope and human kindness is why your family members have stayed in NO. They have my admiration and my good thoughts.

MKK - I hope your friend has found his way to a sound shelter and rides this out unhurt. Why there weren't buses made available to those without cars, I can't imagine.

I don't know anyone in New Orleans, I've only visited once and found it a magical, chaotic and fragrant place. I hope to be able to return someday and find it as I remember it. Good luck to all who will undoubtedly need it over the next day and the next week or so.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:26 AM by Larry Brennan

And I'm looking for a bit of help with the site; a couple of WordPress admins. See link above. Thanks.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:31 AM by Patrick Connors

Gently, all. This is a terrible event, and it's going to get worse. Let's maintain our ability to talk to each other about it.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:45 AM by Teresa Nielsen Hayden

MKK: I hppn t consider Josh a good friend. H's vr mch nt "sl-dd jrk," rgrdlss f wht h's pstd hr.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:57 AM by Brooks Moses

When I checked a half-hour ago, the nola.com webcams were working, showing streetlighting over the area and things being generally very wet.

Posted August 29, 2005 1:59 AM by Dave Bell

I've been watching the web camera from the toll plaza on the causeway:
http://www.thecauseway.com/photos/nplaza2.jpg
all day and evening since it was first mentioned here.

For the past couple of hours there's been a pair of patrol cars parked in the inbound lanes.

So in the off chance their dispatcher reads Making Light, I'd like those officers to know there's people thinking of them.

How you'd deliver a pizza to them, now that's a technical challenge.

Posted August 29, 2005 2:09 AM by Bill Humphries

I'll amend my comment on the donation of blood.

Wait a bit. Money may be more useful, as injuries may be few, compared to deaths, and the need for blood (while constant) may not spike as much as one thinks it would.

Water, on the other hand, may be at a premium.

The waiting sucks.

TK

Posted August 29, 2005 2:25 AM by Terry Karney

The current ship assigned by the RN to the Atlantic Patrol Task (North) is HMS Cumberland, a Type 22 frigate.

Part of the job is hurricane relief, and the MoD describes Type 22 frigates as well equipped for use as a flagship.

See the Royal Navy website for details of APT(N).

Posted August 29, 2005 2:28 AM by Dave Bell

The vehicles at the causeway toll plaza seem to have left within the last 20 minutes.

Scrub the pizza delivery.

Posted August 29, 2005 2:31 AM by Dave Bell

And now there seem to be some lights off in the view of the causeway toll plaza. No lights visible in the foreground, just reflections on the wet road from lights which seem out of the camera's angle of view.

Posted August 29, 2005 3:19 AM by Dave Bell

Lois, I think their concern was over something a bit more mundane than terrorism. They just think that having thousands of people cooped up in a pitch-dark, half flooded Superdome would go better without additional guns and drugs. It's not an ideal shelter, but at least it's there.

Posted August 29, 2005 5:31 AM by Claude Muncey

The major Volunteer Organizations Active in Disaster (VOADs) are:
the American Red Cross 1-800-HELP-NOW for donations.
Salvation Army
Southern Baptist Convention
The Red Cross federal charter requires us to respond to the human needs in disasters, and is responsible for the majority of Emergency Support Function (ESF) 6 Mass Care in the Federal Response Plan, and usually shoulders most of the cost themselves (we accepted money from the feds last fall (after much soul searching), and will probably accept it for Katrina). While both the Army and the SBC are "Religions with Agendas", for this they are deserving of support, even though they have their own funding sources.
The Red Cross is going to need money the most -- to buy food, rent trucks, pay for diesel fuel. And while this is certainly the biggest disaster at the moment, we also need to keep responding to our everyday disasters - household fires, tornados, etc. and that takes money.
The Salvation Army helps with feeding and sheltering, and the Southern Baptists have several big mobile kitchens that will be feeding the folks hot meals in the Gulf Coast for weeks. Never underestimate the power of a hot meal (especially since we'll be starting with Heater Meals and MREs).
Call your Red Cross, see if they need help answering phones, or stuffing envelopes, or bookeeping. If your're able to leave home for three weeks, they might even want to train and recruit you to work in the field for this (not a usual thing, but this isn't a usual disaster).

Posted August 29, 2005 6:29 AM by John Houghton

The view from space

Posted August 29, 2005 9:33 AM by James D. Macdonald

Two updates from MetaFilter member ColdChef, who left NO yesterday for a town near Baton Rouge.

First update:

Hi, everyone. Checking in.

I got to my parent's house at about 7 tonight. I walked in the doors and my brother grabbed my arms and said, "Let's go." The local nursing home was taking elderly refugees from New Orleans and they needed help unloading them when they got there. We had no idea what we were in for.

Five large tourbuses from New Orleans showed up with at least fifty patients on each. For the next four hours we carried these old folks off the buses, put them into wheelchairs and brought them inside.

When we first got there, there were only about fifteen men there. Then, about two dozen volunteers from the police and fire department showed up.

And then came two vans carrying most of the local high school football team. Though it was raining when we got there, it completely quit as we were unloading them.

Wearing gloves and using sheets to wrap them up as we moved them, we physically had to carry these people down the aisle of the bus, to waiting wheelchairs and then into the building, where we would lay them down on one of the 400 inflatable mattresses they brought with them. Picture the soldier scene from "Gone With the Wind" and you have some kind of idea what it looked like in there.

Most of them had soiled themselves on the four hour ride from New Orleans, so we had to be careful moving them. We filled the cafeteria with mattresses and then lined them in the hallways. Many of them had Alzheimer's, and were angry and confused, so it was hard to move them. A few refused to get off the bus and we had to physically bind them in sheets to move them.

It was awful. But we got them all inside. And a few of them who had an idea of what was going on were very thankful and tearful and…it was hard knowing that most of them would never return home. Two people died on the bus ride up there, so we'll be taking care of them later this evening. From the looks of some of the others, death won't be far away. I don't know. It's too much to think about right now.

The rain held off until the last people were unloaded, and as soon as we got them inside, it started pouring down raining.

By the sound of the wind and the rain outside, I don't think our powerlines will be intact for long, so I'll post this while I still can.

Thanks for keeping us in your thoughts.

Second update:

I don't know if you got my last email, but just another quick update.

The sun's coming up and the storm is really starting to whip around out there. The lights are still on amazingly enough, so my mom and I are making breakfast for all the people staying with us. No one really slept well last night except for my one-year-old girl.

Everyone was kind of crashed in front of our tv, flipping back and forth between local coverage, CNN, and the Weather Channel.

My dad was working up front in the funeral home, so I laid down with my mom in her bed and watched the news with her and told her all the funny things that happened at the nursing home with all the refugees. (Like the woman whose response to every question was, "Fuck you.")

I fell asleep and woke up between my mom and dad. Felt safer than it should have, I guess.

It's getting worse out there now and the lights are starting to flicker. I've had to restart my computer several times this morning.

For some reason, I can't post to MetaFilter or MetaChat or anything like that, so I'll try to keep up the emails.

People on the tv at the gulf coast keep saying awful things like, "This is worse than we expected." Makes the coffee and biscuits not taste so good.

Posted August 29, 2005 10:02 AM by Fran

Sorry, but calling people who are looking for what courage and hope they can find in a horrible sitution macho assholes seems really lacking in empathy and overly judgemental. I'm curious though as to why my wish that neither Mr Jasper nor his loved ones get caught in a disaster got disemvoweled. Maybe somebody read it too fast?
MKK

Posted August 29, 2005 11:21 AM by Mary Kay

Before checking in here, I cracked wise that some Pat Robertson type would crack wise about how NYC got nailed in '01, New Orleans is getting it in '05, thus that other den of inequity, San Francisco, would be in line for its day of retribution in 2009.

I'm saddened to hear that people who bitch about other people being intolerant are saying that nature is "punishing" the red states wit Katrina.

On the charity front: people who work for Big Corporations, check to see if they have or are setting up matching-funds programs for donations. SBC has done this in the past; I'm going to find out if they will be doing it for the victims of Katrina.

Posted August 29, 2005 11:26 AM by RJ Johnson

Elizabeth, Patrick:

I never quite know what to do with such thanks, even when they come from people I know to be sincere (so many of them seem to be heartfelt, but pro-forma).

Having been called an insenstitve asshole (over at Steve Gilliard's) for saying the inability of the city to get everyone out wasn't criminal, but "just a bad thing", while I look at my packing list