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November 4, 2008

Discuss the election results…with special guest poster Bruce Schneier
Posted by Bruce Schneier at 05:00 PM *

This year was the year traditional polling collided with modern statistics. Most people I know watched FiveThirtyEight.com, but I preferred the math at the Princeton Election Consortium. These sites both took every poll they could find, analyzed the data, and presented a better picture of the race than any single poll could. (Pollster.com and, the site we all watched in 2004, electoral-vote.com also had some good data.) Right now all those sites are predicting an Obama victory, although they differ in some of the details.

Here’s how to quickly assess the electoral vote count. In 2004, Kerry won the northeast through PA and MD, the midwest states of MI, IL, WI, and MN, the west coast, and HI. He lost the EV count by 286 to 252, basically by losing OH.

For Obama to win, he needs to win all the 2004 Kerry states plus another big one. That big one could be OH, it could be VA, it could be FL. He only needs one. His firewall is IA + CO + NM; if he wins those three he doesn’t need to win a non-Kerry biggie. This is why his prospects look so good, he has many ways reach 269 EV.

For McCain to win, he has to basically run the table. He has put a lot of effort into winning PA, which is 1) large, 2) a Kerry state that could upset Obama’s math, 3) seems susceptible to racist attacks, and 4) has no early voting. But, of course, he has to win a lot more states that are polling for Obama in order to win.

I think we’ll have some idea what will happen early. The first polls close at 7:00 PM EST in GA, IN, KY, SC, VT, and VA. Pay close attention to IN, GA, VA, and SC. How these states come in compared to their polls will be indictave of the night. VA, GA, and SC will tell us a lot about how the South will go. In will tell us a lot about how PA and OH will go.

I predict an Obama blowout. His ground game is easily worth a couple of points, and the pollsters’ demographics are underestimating Obama support. Early voting seems to validate these points. Nationwide: +8.

He’ll win all the Kerry states plus FL, VA, NV, OH, IA, NM, CO, MO, NC, IN, MT, ND, GA. He’ll win GA by the smallest margin, and lose either AZ or WV by the smallest margin.

I also expect some serious Obama coattails, and that down ballot races will also do better. In the senate, Dem pickups in NM, CO, NH, OR, AK, MN, NC, and GA. No KY or MS.

In the house, 260 seats for the Dems.

For governorships, wins in OR, MO, NE, WV, HN, DE, and NC. NC will be the closest, but between Obama’s and Hagen’s coattails I expect Perdue to eke it out.

And California Prop 8 will lose, barely. Again, Obama’s coattails.

This isn’t enough. What I really want to lose is the Republican all-slime-all-the-time campaign strategy. I want McCain, Dole, Coleman and the rest to be so discredited that no one will try to run a campaign that way again. I want campaigns to be about ideas. Maybe that’s too much to ask.

But enough about me. Let’s see how the night goes. Chat amongst yourselves, and I’ll be back as soon as I can.

Comments on Discuss the election results...with special guest poster Bruce Schneier:
#1 ::: Magenta Griffith ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:06 PM:

Tap..Tap..is this thing on?

#2 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:09 PM:

In Georgia, turnout was heavy this morning, but at four o'clock my wife and mother-in-law had no delay voting at the local polling station. They had made four efforts at early voting and found the lines too long. Too long that is for mother-in-law who is 83. On election day, in Georgia, the elderly and handicapped are expedited.

Where I live, in south Fulton County, the vote is going to be overwhelmingly for that Irish chap O'Bama.

#3 ::: Xopher ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:10 PM:

I'd really like the good guys to take Alaska. This would crush Sarah Palin's political career, and it needs crushing more than a wine glass at a Jewish wedding.

Also, I'd like a pony.

#4 ::: Iain Coleman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:10 PM:

I'm watching this in Edinburgh with my wife. Neither of us can vote in this election, but we are both watching, nervous and hopeful for an Obama victory. There are millions like us tonight.

#5 ::: don delny ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:11 PM:

Aa! My Statistician!*

*compare to: ああ!っ女神さまっ (Pronounced: AA! Megami-Sama )

#6 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:12 PM:

My gut feeling is that the electoral vote will be closer than some people are saying--I'm thinking 311-227 or 338-200--but that the popular vote margin will be larger than the 52-46 that the polls have converged on. I'm guessing that in a lot of states whose electoral votes are already going to Obama, a larger-than-usual number of "sporadic voters" are turning up to vote for him anyway. Both because he's an unusually appealing candidate, and also because people really do want to feel like they were part of something historic.

Brad DeLong did observe that if Obama gets above 54%, that'll be the highest percentage of the popular vote for a non-incumbent since Eisenhower in 1952.

#7 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:15 PM:

In the light of the most recent poll results (via fivethirtyeight.com) showing Gregoire at +2, can I have your justification for scaring the heck out of me by predicting a Rossi win in Washington?

#8 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:15 PM:

Magenta Griffith @1: I sure hope so.

I'm done with my second shift of door knocking. Basically, it was the same experience I had four years ago: in the suburbs: people don't need to be reminded to vote. They don't need to be told where their polling place is. They don't need a ride to the polls. They don't need any more data. And -- most of the time -- they're not even home.

GOTV makes a whole lot more difference in inner cities and poorer neighborhoods. But I did my two shifts; I don't think I'm going out for a third. I'm heading home.

#9 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:17 PM:

Here are two guides to watching the returns come in.

Both are worth reading.

#10 ::: abi ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:18 PM:

This isn’t enough. What I really want to lose is the Republican all-slime-all-the-time campaign strategy. I want McCain, Dole, Coleman and the rest to be so discredited that no one will try to run a campaign that way again. I want campaigns to be about ideas.

Amen, brother. I really enjoyed voting for someone this time, rather than against some other guy.

And we get a broader slice of the populace interested if politics isn't conducted entirely in shouts*. My intensely non-confrontational father, who usually doesn't talk about politics at all, wanted an Obama yard sign. He sent an email around to friends and family about Prop 8 (against it, from a deeply religious and prayerful perspective).

We need these voices, as well as those of the people who like a good mud-fight. When the going gets ugly, only the ugly participate, and that's not the way to get the best out of a nation.

-----
* I know that there will always be some fierce conflict in politics. That's the nature of the species. But letting it take over robs many of us of our voices.†
† Bug? Or feature?

#11 ::: Nicole TWN ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:20 PM:

And California Prop 8 will lose, barely. Again, Obama’s coattails.

From your lips to God's ears, Mr. Schneier.

Me, I haven't voted yet, but will when I get back from work. Apparently everyone is seeing giant!monster!lines; this worries me, since my usual polling place is a teensy little spot (and I'm used to being in and out in 10 minutes). Good thing I had the foresight to bring a book today.

#12 ::: Iain Coleman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:20 PM:

Turnout is absolutely the key to winning elections, and that's why I'm confident of an Obama victory. Not only is he an inspiring candidate, he has created a GOTV operation of astonishing proportions.

#13 ::: R. M. Koske ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:22 PM:

#2, Fragano -

Odd. At the polling place where I voted early (in Cobb county) the lines were outrageous, but I thought I saw the elderly being expedited. Maybe they were only doing it for the really obviously frail or people who were both elderly and handicapped (there was a woman with a walker and a woman in a wheelchair, both with assistants.)

I'm glad they both did manage it without too much trouble today.

#14 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:22 PM:

Fragano Ledgister @2: That's good news for Obama, since his early voting numbers looked really good. (I can't find the link right now.) That's why I predicted he'd win the state.

#15 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:23 PM:

Patrick @6:

"Brad DeLong did observe that if Obama gets above 54%, that'll be the highest percentage of the popular vote for a non-incumbent since Eisenhower in 1952."

Of course that will be used as evidence that the country is conservative, and that Obama better govern from the right if he knows what's good for him.

#16 ::: Jonathan Cohen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:25 PM:

I have grave fears that Prop. 8 will pass. I've been working the polls for No on 8 at a graduate student polling place at a major California university, and 3 out of 5 students, queried outside the hundred-foot limit before they voted, were voting "Yes." It blows my mind. How could there be so many conservative graduate students? If the university is supposed to be an outpost of progressive values, how much worse things must be in the surrounding communities! I'd like to be proven wrong, big time, but this is pretty scary.

#17 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:25 PM:

Okay. I'm heading home.

Don't break anything while I'm gone.

Feel free to read this about why you should ignore exit polls.

#18 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:26 PM:

Well, night has fallen here in Puerto Rico, and they're all out honking in the streets (you think Americans get into elections? I don't even know who's running down here and we all know nothing here will ever change, but man do they get into it, running up and down the streets with flags.)

So it's officially Election Night: I wanna see me some progressive progress!

#19 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:26 PM:

R.M. Koske #13: One big problem was that there was no place to park at either of the early voting locations down here during the early voting period -- because of the high turnout. Today, on the other hand, at the local elementary school, no problem.

Mother-in-law is in a wheelchair.

#20 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:27 PM:

Odd, now that this thread is open, it already feels almost anticlimactic. Probably won't stay so, though. My predictions:

Obama: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DC, VA, MI, WI, MN, IA, IL, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HW.

McCain: AK, MT, ID, NV, AZ, UT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, WV, OH, IN, KY, TN, FL.

Obama 286, McCain 252.

Obama gets the Northeast, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, the West Coast, and Hawai.

McCain gets most of the South (including Florida and North Carolina; sure, Obama leads there, but with all we've heard about certain Republican activities so far, I want to be careful with giving him any generally red state where his lead is slim), Ohio and Indiana (see above), the column from Oklahoma to the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska.

Popular Vote: Obama 50.5, McCain 47, other 2.5.

Sorry, I don't feel comfortable predicting anything else at all.

#21 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:29 PM:

I am officially predicting Blue Indiana. I keep saying, if my Dad is voting Obama, McCain has no hope at all in the Hoosier State.

#22 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:31 PM:

And California Prop 8 will lose, barely. Again, Obama’s coattails.

Oh, I hope you're right.

I hope that enough people feel passionately about it that they'll go vote against it after work even though the presidential race will almost certainly be decided by 6 PST. I really have no idea how strong the support vs opposition is among the general public, whether people who go out to vote specifically because of Prop 8 are more likely to be supporters or opponents.


#23 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:33 PM:

Bruce Schneier #14: A lot depends on how the predominantly white northern suburbs of Atlanta vote, and how rural north and south Georgia vote. Early voting turnout in metro Atlanta has been very high, and that's driven up the overall turnout in Georgia considerably. That's also true of black voter turnout (I keep hearing 'African-American' used a lot, but many black voters in the Atlanta suburbs are African or Caribbean) which has been above the population level (36% compared to 27%).

One of the grad students in my department organised a march of 150 students from the Atlanta University Center to vote at the county offices in downtown Atlanta last Thursday. That's a solid bloc of Obama voters right there, and I know that a lot of our students voted absentee in their home states (including one from Alaska), and I'm pretty sure that very few of them were for McPalin.

However, although I am (a) in Georgia and (b) a political scientist, I am hesitant to call the state for Obama. The state is run by the Republicans, after all. We shall see.

#24 ::: Connie H. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:34 PM:

FWIW, I've heard that Obama has swept Guam.

#25 ::: P J Evans ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:37 PM:

From the LA Times site:
Of L.A. County's 4.3 million registered voters, 43% cast ballots by 1 p.m.

That's why I'm going to be leaving work an hour early: I expect to have to stand in line longer than usual. (That, and the trains are having signal problems today. Delays of 30 minutes or more.)

#26 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:40 PM:

"I want McCain, Dole, Coleman and the rest to be so discredited"

The Coleman campaign has been the worst I have ever seen... Here in the North, we have been spared some of the worst of the dirty campaigning over the years.

Not this year. I actually think Franken will be beaten by the Incumbent Effect (which I value at 6 points)... Minnesota has sold it's soul...

Please let me be wrong...

#27 ::: Dave Bell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:41 PM:

And 15400 words in NaNoWriMo

It's the calm before the storm, and Charlie has just met Lady Helen for the first time. And her stepmother. They seem to be teasing him, a little.

You guys play nice. He deserves a little fun. Not that he's going to get it, just yet.

#28 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:45 PM:

edward oleander #26: There are counter effects, you know:

(1) Obama has coattails; the question is, as always, their length.

(2) The economy is bad for incumbents.

#29 ::: Brad DeLong ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:47 PM:

#16: I have grave fears that Prop. 8 will pass...

If it does, we will repeal it next year--or the year after.

#30 ::: Nicole TWN ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:49 PM:

Of L.A. County's 4.3 million registered voters, 43% cast ballots by 1 p.m.

Really? Hurray! At this rate, they should ALL have finished voting by the time I get back from work, and I'll have no line at all!

(Also, srsly? 43% of Angelenos not only showed up to vote at all, but have already voted?! Goooooooo US!)

3 out of 5 students, queried outside the hundred-foot limit before they voted, were voting "Yes." [on 8]

I blame those odious commercials that tried to cast a vote for 8 as a vote for religious tolerance. Talk about bizarro logic.

#31 ::: Keith ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:50 PM:

Having just recently moved out of GA (lived in Savannah for 12 years), I'm surprised and happy that there is even a chance for Obama to win that state. That is huge and a great symbolic victory (should it come to pass) what with MLK being from Atlanta.

(for those interested, I posted my predictions ((with a map!)) just click my name).

#32 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:52 PM:

By the way, did Making Light ever have trouble with really high traffic?

#33 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:53 PM:

I'm not too worried about McCain taking Pennsylvania. I think Obama will win by at least five points, though McCain will take most of the rural areas.

Bruce, I doorknocked in a poor neighborhood on Saturday. Very few people were home, though a few appeared to be home but wouldn't answer the door.

We noted today that a rural town in our district had the most requests for rides to the polls.

This may all decided while I'm at rehearsal tonight! *sigh*

#34 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:53 PM:

Fragano Ledgister #28: I've been thinking a lot about coattails today, and I think they depend somewhat on ballot design. When I was a kid in New York they had those large mechanical voting machines, and each party was a vertical column. It was easy to start at the top and flick every switch, one after another, for a single party. Now in Minnesoata I vote on paper, and it's more obviously a choice between candidates and it's harder to see a party's complete slate.

But certainly we're seeing Obama's coattails here in Minnesota. People, when asked, are saying things like: "I'm voting for Obama, and all his guys." I like hearing that.

#35 ::: Shalom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:54 PM:

Bruce, thanks for inviting us all to hang out here. And thanks for being even more optimistic than I am, it makes me feel better.

I'm with you on the states going to Obama, except I think we'll miss MT and ND. And voting problems in St. Louis (as always) will just barely keep us from MO. Total of 380 (including NE-02 -- just to help enliven those civics classes).

Popular margin: 9 points, 53.5 vs. 44.5
Though my bottom-up state-by-state spreadsheet totals to 7.5 points, 52.9 vs. 45.4

For the Senate, I think Franken will fall short, thanks for Barkley. Martin may even lead in GA, but there will be a run-off. I agree, no MS or KY (dang!) -- Obama doesn't have the kind of turn-out machine in either state as the campaign has built elsewhere.

For the House, expected-value computation gives 261 D's in the 111th (30.5 pick-ups, 5.5 losses).

But a bunch of potential squeakers gives us a 267 total (one vote shy of a triple-digit majority), plus the runoff in LA-04. Some highlights:

Close (or favorite) wins: CA-04, CO-4, CT-04, FL-08, -21, -24, and -25 (Go Joe!), ID-01, MD-01, MN-03 and -06 (that one should help with your desire for more civilized discourse), MO-09 (but not -06), NV-03 (but not -02), NJ-03 and -07 (but sadly, not -05), NM-01 (finally!) and -02, NC-08, and for a grand finale, WY-AL and WA-08.

I'm not expecting them, but potential surprises are NE-02 and CA-46.

We hold all the governor's mansions and pick up MO. I've got some predictions on initiatives too, but this post is already too long. It looks like we should have plenty of time to celebrate throughout the night -- before we rest up to start the hard work of actually *implementing* all this change we believe in.

#36 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:54 PM:

Talking Points Memo has a dynamically updated scoreboard that you don't have to reload. It's the magic of JMX! In cooperation with Google.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

#37 ::: Holly P. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:54 PM:

An Electoral Villanelle (Which Came Out Strangely Patriotic) on the Eve of This Election Day

We all shall stand in line
The voting booths await
Democracy's divine

The weather favors fine
Tonight we'll see our fate
We shall all stand in line

High turnout is a sign
That voters are irate
Democracy's divine

The others we malign
We will no more debate
We shall all stand in line

My vote, and theirs, and thine
All carry equal weight
Democracy's divine

This evening we define
What makes our country great
We shall all stand in line
Democracy's divine

#38 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:55 PM:

edward oleander #26: Franken has been the hardest sell here in Minnesota. People just don't like him; he's smarmy. If he wins, it'll be a squeaker.

But I think he will, because of all the first-time voters signed up to support Obama.

#39 ::: Valuethinker ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:56 PM:

There is great excitement in Kenya tonight, one reads.

A son of Kenya, of Africa, whose father was born within a few hundred miles of Olduvai Gorge, where Lucy, the first human walked. 3 million years later, a son of Africa is again walking with footprints that will change the world.

In this time of darkness, a son of Africa is going to be President of the world’s most powerful country. One almost dares not say it, for fear that some curse will take it away. This is like the day Nelson Mandela was released from prison.

It has been a long wait, but tomorrow will be a truly great day. There is much peril and many disappointments to come, but this cannot be taken away from us.

Ndio tunaweza. In Swahili 'Yes we can'.

Ndio tunaweza, America.

Ndio tunaweza.

We'll be prayin' for ya'.


#40 ::: Ken MacLeod ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:56 PM:

All that's stopping me (here in the UK) from staying up all night is that (a) I have to deliver an after-dinner talk at a scientists' confab tomorrow evening and (b) I have to get up at 0500 GMT (Nov 5) to get there ...

Fingers crossed for you, gals and guys.

#41 ::: Holly P. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:57 PM:

All shall. Shall all. *Shall all.* Eep!

*sigh*

The first line of #37 is "shall all," not "all shall." Please pretend accordingly.

#42 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:57 PM:

Brad DeLong #29: Everyone needs to watch this stunning "No on 8" ad.

We need to win this, because it's turned into a national referendum on the subject. If we lose, it'll pop up everywhere. If we win, it might not.

#43 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 05:58 PM:

And if you need some more inspiration, here's Obama from last night.

#44 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:00 PM:

Shalom @35: ND has no registration. None at all. Just show up at the polls and vote. I think this will make a difference.

#45 ::: debcha ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:00 PM:

Fragano Ledgister (#23): That's also true of black voter turnout (I keep hearing 'African-American' used a lot, but many black voters in the Atlanta suburbs are African or Caribbean) which has been above the population level (36% compared to 27%).

Huh - this seems like one of the few places where you can legitimately use 'African-American' since they are all actually American citizens. And your quibble doesn't seem to be with the 'African' part. Or am I missing something?

#46 ::: C.E. Petit ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:01 PM:

17 Or, you could do like I do when confronted by someone taking an exit poll:

What part of "secret ballot" did you not understand? But first, I need to see your KGB identity card!

I've spent enough time in and/or involved with countries that have polls and non-secret ballots to have no respect for exit polls at all — not even as purported checks on manipulating ballot counting. Good [insert name of favored deity/whatever to take in vain here], can't you maroons wait twelve hours for the actual results to start coming in?

#47 ::: J. Random Scribbler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:01 PM:

Erm, I live in Oregon and we aren't electing a governor this time around. Washington state is, though; was that who you meant instead of Oregon in the governors list? I predict Gregoire the incumbent Democrat will win there.

Other predictions:
Merkley(D) wins Oregon Senate.
Schrader(D) wins Oregon's fifth district, succeeding the outgoing Darlene Hooley.
OR ballot measure 65 (open primaries, poison pill for third parties) fails by at least 5%.

Proposition 8 fails narrowly in CA.

Obama wins the presidency with over 300 electoral votes and about 52% of the popular vote. I'm not going to try to predict individual swing states.

I also predict the official poll closing times will be a bad joke because there will still be long lines at many precincts, particularly in VA where there was no early voting and many problems have been reported already.

#48 ::: T3kboi ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:02 PM:

I found an electoral map that I like that auto-updates the polling info, and has a full screen mode at :

http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/

#49 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:04 PM:

Whelp, the first polls are closed in Indiana. My fingers are crossed.

#50 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:04 PM:

A Navy brat votes: Dreams of My Father at The New Republic.

#51 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:04 PM:

C.E. Petit #46:

Exit polls are anonymous, so I don't see any loss of liberties there. But I can certainly understand not wanting to share your vote with a stranger.

And while we're on this subject, can anyone think of a good reason why Sarah Palin wouldn't tell reporters who she voted for?

#52 ::: Andrew Willett ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:05 PM:

And California Prop 8 will lose, barely. Again, Obama’s coattails.

Oh, I dearly hope so. I grew up in California, although I've lived in NYC for fifteen years now(!), and I've taken Prop 8 immensely more personally than I've taken any of its ilk over the last several cycles. As my presidential-election anxiety started to subside, I just reallocated all of it over to Prop 8. I imagine that whatever its outcome I'm going to end up having a little breakdown in my living room when it's called.

Watching one's right to be thought of as a full and equal person in the eyes of the law be put up for a vote is no fun. The next fresh-faced LDS missionaries who show up at my door may well wish they hadn't.

#53 ::: jude ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:07 PM:

@ #51 I assumed it was because of the controversy around Ted Stevens.

#54 ::: abi ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:09 PM:

Bruce @51:
can anyone think of a good reason why Sarah Palin wouldn't tell reporters who she voted for?

<snark>Because she wrote in herself?</snark>

#55 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:09 PM:

Bruce Schneier @ 51 -

I think I know why her vote's all hidden. She probably spent it on some independent or something. She wants WICKTORY! in 2012, and currently she and McCain harbor much disdain for one another.

If by some will of deity or demon McCain becomes president, that is NOT going to be a happy White House.

#56 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:10 PM:

@53: Palin has already said that Stevens should resign.

#57 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:10 PM:

Bruce, I hope I'm being pessimistic, oh, I hope, I hope, I hope!

How are you feeling about Michelle "The-banks-were-over-regulated, and by the way, I-Drink-Children's-Blood" Bachmann?

#58 ::: joel hanes ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:10 PM:

I want campaigns to be about ideas.

Ideas deserve more prominence than the press gives them, but the candidates' character makes more difference.

In terms of the ideas he expressed in his first Presidential campaign, George W. Bush could plausibly have thought a fairly moderate, mainstream Republican, and many did see him that way. Those who paid attention to his character have been less surprised at the course of his Presidency, because W remains as he was : a dry drunk, a sneering frathouse bully, the family neer-do-well and a failure at everything he tries, a mean and resentful little prick. (Molly Ivins made all this clear in 1999. So did Joe Conason in 2000.)

Ralph Nader has lots of really good ideas. But if you read the accounts by people who have worked for him, worked directly with him, you find that his temperament is unsuited to leadership. He alienates the people he works with, drives them crazy, drives them away to found competing organizations supporting the same policy agenda, because no one can stand to work with or for Nader. He'd be a disastrous _Mayor_, much less President, and I think that voters have rightly understood this throughout his political career. His ideas will go nowhere until they are picked up by someone with the temperament.

I'm not all that fired up about soon-to-be-President-elect Barack Obama's ideas. But he has a first-class mind coupled to a first-class temperament, and I think those are excellent reasons to vote for the man.

#59 ::: JLundell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:12 PM:

Brad DeLong #29 "If it does, we will repeal it next year--or the year after."

I've been telling myself that, and I think it's true, though it may take more than a year or two. The trend seems clear enough. OTOH, a narrow defeat might lead to another try, without an Obama on the ballot.

BS #38. Franken. Yeah. I came back from MN yesterday, after a 10-day visit. A friend was doubtful about voting for Franken. "So, Coleman?" "Oh, yeah, right." Obama could have done a little more for Franken, I think, but I'm blown away by the Obama ground force, and that might turn the trick.

#60 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:13 PM:

I am greatly hopeful, after reading some of the background on CA law, that even if 8 passes, it'll be shot down by the CA Supreme Court. Constitutional amendments need a basic majority--constitutional revisions need much more.

And the claim that this is an amendment, not a revision, is easy to debunk: if it said "California only recognizes marriages between a white person and a white person" instead of "a [male person] and a [female person]," nobody would think that was a minor change. Not even if they said that non-white people were welcome to have "civil unions" with "all the benefits of marriage."

But I hope it doesn't get to that, and that all the unlikely voters heading to the polls for Obama, and all the ultra-liberals and freaks who don't normally vote, and the thousands of newlyweds, are enough to vote down discrimination.

#61 ::: jude ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:17 PM:

@56 Yes, her comments were widely reported. I still think she did not want to go on record as either having voted for Stevens or against him.

#62 ::: C.E. Petit ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:18 PM:

51 They're only anonymous if nobody makes even the slightest effort to identify anyone... and here, in East-Central Redneckistan, that effort is less trivial than breaking a ROT-13 encrypted message after you're told it's a ROT-13 encrypted message. Those who are conducting exit polls (and, for that matter, challenges) in the rural/semirural areas of the Midwest often know everyone in the extraordinarily small precincts we've got here. The contrast between what I observed in the 1984 US elections in Illinois and the by-elections and national elections I observed in England a couple of years later was astounding... and that contrast can only have increased since.

My point remains, though: Y'all can't wait twelve hours for reliable results?

#63 ::: Zed Lopez ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:20 PM:

Brad DeLong @29 If it does, we will repeal it [Prop 8] next year--or the year after.

And if it doesn't, I fear we'll need to re-defeat it for years to come. (On preview, I hope elfwreck's prediction @60 that the CA Supremes would overturn it proves correct if it passes.)

#64 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:20 PM:

By the way, for all of us in the GTFO BACHMANN party, there's http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.com/. They linked earlier to my Schadenfreude Pie post, which mostly has videos.

Oooh. I mustn't forget to also watch Indecision 2008! Must go downstairs and find snacks.

#65 ::: CD Covington ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:20 PM:

debcha #45 Huh - this seems like one of the few places where you can legitimately use 'African-American' since they are all actually American citizens. And your quibble doesn't seem to be with the 'African' part. Or am I missing something?

People from the Caribbean aren't African. Recent immigrants from Africa, while they may be citizens, aren't African-Americans as the term is widely understood.

I met a woman from Bermuda, who told me that she didn't like filling in the African-American bubble for race, because she's black, not Af-Am.

#66 ::: Hob ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:22 PM:

Andrew @52: I know what you mean about reallocating the anxiety. I honestly have no idea which way the state will go on Prop 8. A year after I moved to California, they elected Schwarzenegger and I decided I would never understand this place.

And if 8 passes, I'll feel not only very angry but very guilty, because other than donating a medium-sized chunk of money, I didn't do crap. I'm incredibly badly suited to phone-banking or canvassing, but I thought if anything could get me over my fear of talking to strangers, it might be this; No such luck.

#67 ::: Andy Brazil ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:23 PM:

Well, the UK papers currently all have front pages with Obama on them.

My take on Palin is that republicans want to encourage people to not answer exit polls, as it makes it easier for them to fiddle the results.

#68 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:24 PM:

elfwreck @60: Yeah; I hope it doesn't come to that, too. And the biggest reason that I hope it doesn't come to that is what Bruce Schneier says @42 -- regardless of the law, this appears to be a referendum on the whole subject, and hopefully if it dies, the issue will start actually dying.

I'd also like to believe that a majority of the people in my state would vote against bigotry, even if it's a small majority.

#69 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:24 PM:

Holy smokes. That ad Bruce linked to in #42 is really really strong. I hope it had some impact.

#70 ::: Iain Coleman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:26 PM:

Wolf Blitzer is driving my wife to looking at LOLcats. Seriously, CNN has some fantastic computer graphics, presented via astonishingly shoddy camerawork. It's late night here, and I'm having a couple of ciders: what's these guy's excuse?

#71 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:26 PM:

Reporting in from Raleigh, NC. Voting today has been described as moderate; it was heavy right at the start but has tapered off to a steady influx of voters, even after people have left work.

Early voting is the reason; according to the results, over 2.6 million NC voters used the early voter program, which was over 74% of the TOTAL votes cast by NC in 2004.

The predictions is today's votes will bring the total up to around 60% of the total NC voters, but if that is the number, Obama is going to win this state. Roughly 55% of early voters were Democrat, and only 30% were Republican; the others were Independent. Even assuming ALL today's voters were Republican, that would still not be enough IMO to overcome the big lead Democratic voters gave Obama from early voting.

The totals won't be released until 8:30 due to a snafu with some of the polls today, but the early voting data will come out at 7:30. That may be all we need to know by then...

#72 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:28 PM:

debcha @ 45 -

I imagine it's the same reason I don't list myself as a Pacific Islander. Not all of us come from Japan or Hawaii or whatnot (and yet that's often the only option given to me when marking the race bubble. So I just choose Other).

If my family had roots from the Caribbean, "African"-American is something I'd have trouble identifying with.

#73 ::: David Dyer-Bennet ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:28 PM:

Fragano@23: I know the global-search-and-replace of "black" with "African-American" has produced many howlers, but I do think that anybody entitled to vote in today's election is in some reasonable sense an American.

#74 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:31 PM:

edward oleander @57: We have two House races to watch: Media v. Poulson in MN-03 and Tinklenberg v. Bachmann in MN-06. Both are in Republican leaning suburbs, and both have a chance at going Dem this year. Bachmann really blew her lead with that stupid McCarthy-like interview; but when the RNCC pulled out of her race, they dumped the money in MN-03.

So, I don't know. I am predicting that we win both, but I really don't know if we'll win more than one of them.Media v. Poulson in MN-03 and Tinklenberg v. Bachmann in MN-06. Both are in Republican leaning suburbs, and both have a chance at going Dem this year. Bachmann really blew her lead with that stupid McCarthy-like interview; but when the RNCC pulled out of her race, they dumped the money in MN-03.

So, I don't know. I am predicting that we win both, but I really don't know if we'll win more than one of them.

#75 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:34 PM:

J. Random Scribbler @47: I meant WA; sorry.

#76 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:35 PM:

Xopher @ #3 - You and me both, you and me both.

Except the pony part. I don't want a pony.

I sure as heck want Ted and Don to no longer represent Alaska. And if y'all don't mind, I'd be much happier if you let my governor come home. Just sayin'...

#77 ::: Sisuile ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:37 PM:

Shalom @ 35
According to my poll workers at 2 pm this afternoon, the City of St. Louis has held an almost impecable election. I never thought I would see the day.

As of 8 am this morning, the line at my polling place was 4 blks long. About 9 they had the first wave (that started at 7) through - it was incredibly efficient. I went to vote at 1:30 and avoided the lunch crowd. We just swung past the school on our way to grab celebratory groceries* and there was a small line again. But...it's good. I think we'll make it.

*There are few things more american than A&W root beer with vanilla ice cream. Also, hotdish/casserole for dinner.

#78 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:38 PM:

Tania @76: How popular is Palin in AK right now? Is she viewed with pride or as an embarrassment? Is she going to get re-elected, or will she face a primary?

#79 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:38 PM:

John L at 71, you are assuming that all Democrats will vote for Obama, which can't be assumed. Unfortunately.

However, I hope with you: let Obama win NC! And Indiana! And Florida! And Georgia!

#80 ::: Graydon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:39 PM:

C. E. Petit @62 --

I don't think I'm going to see reliable results at all.

(I'm also pretty sure there's going to be a major public announcement that someone has won something they haven't, too.)

There's this... plethora... of divergent systems; obvious, acknowledged, widespread, well funded, voter suppression efforts; almost nowhere using exclusively the only really decent -- paper ballots counted in public on the night -- voting technology; and a distinct lack of jail time for folks who are known to have done wildly unlawful things. (Even if the 2004 Ohio vote was conducted with such probity and even-handedness that St. Michael the Archangel could not have bettered it, the destruction of the records was itself a significant felony.)

So I don't think the eventual results are going to be all that accurate a reflection of the actual vote tallies, were those to have been counted accurately.

Which is not to say a lot of folks aren't trying their best, but as anybody looking at the poll aggregation sites can tell, a couple percentage points of trend is a big change in results. There's at least that much slop in the present system. That awareness has to really nag at politically aware people; it's not just the votes, it's the political control of the mechanism of vote counting.

That's not how a democratic system is supposed to work.

#81 ::: Constance ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:39 PM:

We still vote here in NYC with those old clunker mechanical machines that go back how far?

There was a plan in place to replace with those auto digital voting machines from Diebold but that was put on hiatus for however long post the 2000 election and then the 2004 election.

I kinda like how when I pull the switch I see that big black X show up where I want it to be.

But then I've voted in the same precinct almost all my voting life, with the one exception -- 2004 -- when I was living in New Orleans and thought a Kerry vote there would matter more than a loss of a Kerry vote back up here.

It's kind of misty-making now, after all these years of living here, when signing into the voter registration book, to see just how many frackin' elections we (the spouse and I) have voted in, in this district. Not only the presidential elections. We vote in all of them. This voting record is yet another history of our marriage.

Excuse me. I'm really sick.

Love, C.

#82 ::: Flemming Meier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:39 PM:

Also here in Copenhagen, Denmark unusually many people stay up (it's after midnight now) to follow your election. Some of the newest headlines at The rather liberal newspaper Politiken are: 'New voters vote for Obama', 'The election may break all records' and 'Wt voters ruin voting machines'. The media coverage here has been surprisingly 'balanced' or in the case of the national TV pro-McCain. Surprisingly because all polls show that more than 70% of the Danish voters prefer Obama. I wish all you Americans good luck! And a a win for Obama!

#83 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:41 PM:

Okay, I've forgotten from four years ago: About when are we likely to start getting results from states after the polls close? Will we know if Virginia, for example, has gone for Obama at 7:01 EST? Or will it likely take a while? Any predictions on that?

(Are we there yet?)

(How about now? Are we there yet?)

#84 ::: Jonquil ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:42 PM:

As a Californian, I'm worried about 8. Since the election's going to be called before our polls close, there's a theory that the Obama voters will stay home after that, leaving the social conservatives, who are motivated by the propositions on abortion and gay marriage, to dominate the polling. I hope that theory's wrong.

The polling on 8 is much too close for comfort.
A Field Poll of likely voters finds the measure, which would ban gay marriage, trailing by five percentage points -- 49-44, with 7% undecided. In September, the margin was 14 points.

#85 ::: JS ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:43 PM:

Bruce @OP:
"This isn’t enough. What I really want to lose is the Republican all-slime-all-the-time campaign strategy. I want McCain, Dole, Coleman and the rest to be so discredited that no one will try to run a campaign that way again."

What *I* really want is for the Republican pander-to-'Real-America' all-slime campaign strategy to go down in flames. BUT FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO KEEP RUNNING IT for a couple election cycles, until the modern conservative coalition has splintered beyond hope of repair and no longer has its outsized influence on national politics.

Nothing could make me happier than seeing a Palin 2012 candidacy; we could use a nice solid 8 years.
***
Regarding "African-American," I'm sure someone's made the observation already, but -- Barack Obama will be America's first Black President. But we'll still be waiting for our first President who is descended from slaves. These are very much not unrelated statements. This is progress, but we're not done yet.

#86 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:45 PM:

Brooks @ 68 - I suspect that, regardless of today's vote, it'll eventually have to go before the US Supreme Court, which will have to overturn DOMA as discriminatory.

Fortunately, there's a template... you can almost grab the anti-miscegenation law arguments and rulings and replace the word "race" with "sex" and hand them back in. It's downright frightening how near-identical the rhetoric is. (About the only notable difference is in the phrasing about children. Not the issue--the anti-marriage crowd claims to be "concerned for the children" in both cases. But the phrasing is perforce a bit different.)

#87 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:45 PM:

Lizzy L @79: All the polls I've seen have Democrats much more likely to vote for Obama than Republicans are likely to vote for McCain. I think this is an election where our base will win it for us -- which is why all those "Obama better govern from the right" warnings are crap.

#88 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:46 PM:

Jonquil @84: I've not seen any good reason to think that the conservatives are any more motivated than the liberals for voting on the propositions, as far as that goes. Especially with this being so close, and widely reported as close, I think anybody who cares about it is still likely to go vote.

But, yeah, I'm worried too.

#89 ::: Martin Schafer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:46 PM:

At our precinct (Minneapolis 6-4) when Eileen and I, and couple other household members. went to vote at 10:30 the line was a block and a half long. We got done at 12:45, line was still a block and half long. Eileen and I went and did door knocking until my feet gave out and when we drove by the place at 4:30 the line was still a block and half long.

We broke records in total votes cast for Kerry in 2004 and it was not nearly that busy.

#90 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:47 PM:

Obama in nanotubes.

I'll bet it's fun having tenure.

#91 ::: Sam Kelly ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:47 PM:

The Obama tracker site is much nicer-looking than the McCain one at least.

#92 ::: Constance ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:49 PM:

Is Virginia going to be the new Ohio?

The vast majority of problems of every kind so far I've seen reported come out of swing state Virginia.

Love, C.

#93 ::: Tim Walters ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:50 PM:

Results are beginning to trickle in:

Indiana (11 EVs)
Barack Obama (D) 55% 10,913
John McCain (R) 43% 8,570
Bob Barr (L) 1% 227

#94 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:50 PM:

Lizzy,

I'm aware that not all Democrats will vote for Obama, but I just can't see the number going for McCain to be much more than 5-10%, and probably that many Republicans switched as well (my wife and I are both listed as Republicans, for example).

The state I'm surprised as possibly going blue is Georgia. I mean, really; GEORGIA??? If that happens I'll be dumbfounded. And ecstatic!

#95 ::: Mikael Vejdemo Johansson ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:51 PM:

Brooks @ 83:
Geeeez! Calm down! Some of us haven't even left work!

(I'm heading out within mere minutes to do the dinner shopping for the Grad Students Plus Me election night hangout CNN and Making Light bonanza with extra single malts and drinking games!)

(Oh yeah - location: Stanford, CA)

#96 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:51 PM:

Brooks Moses @83: Stations will call states pretty quickly after the polls close, if it's obvious. I think we'll start seeing real numbers pretty soon.

Remember, even the no-doubt states matter. That's where we'll see the first indications that the polling models are all wrong, and that the vote will look different from the polls all across the country.

#97 ::: Tim Walters ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:51 PM:

0% of 5230 precincts reporting, I should add.

#98 ::: Vicki ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:51 PM:

On my way home, a neighbor advised me not to stay up too late, and while that is generally good advice, and I will probably take it, my immediate response was "I have to stay up for California, for Proposition 8." Even though I know we may not get that answer tonight, and that it's too late for me to do more to affect it (I have donated, as well as the preaching-to-the-choir of urging my Californian friends to vote NO).

The only actual fact I have to report is that turnout was heavy in my corner of Manhattan at 8:30 or so this morning, but that I had a shorter line than my partner, because they'd split our election district A-L/M-Z even though about 2/3 of the people in this E.D. have surnames in the former group. I was out in five minutes, as voter 80 on my machine; he was there a half hour, and got 124.

#99 ::: albatross ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:52 PM:

My polling place wasn't too crowded, at around 11:30 this morning--I spent maybe five minutes in line. We used the Diebold touchscreens, so God only knows what votes got recorded. (The clowns who wrote the code surely don't.)

Bruce, your opening comment hit it perfectly. The best outcome is that the tactics that got and kept Bush and company in power for 8 years get discredited, and so we get less toxic elections in the future. (Discussions about ideas and policies, with genuine thought and analysis behind them, would be better, but I don't see how that can ever become the norm here.)

#100 ::: Ian Whitchurch ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:52 PM:

Results are in for Vigo County in south-western Inidiana.

Obama 15k, McCain 11k.

http://www.vigocounty.org/ ... this is rural south-western Indiana. Terre Haute is the biggest city.

If McCain can't win here, its a long, long night for Republicans.

Ian Whitchurch

#101 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:53 PM:

Here's some early IN data: a comparison of Obama's totals with Kerry's totals for years ago in a few areas of the state. It looks really good.

#102 ::: debcha ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:54 PM:

CD Covington (#65): Yes, I know that people of Caribbean descent may not consider themselves 'African.' Like Fragano, I much prefer 'black' to 'African-American,' as it doesn't make any assumptions about culture or nationality. But it seems like recent African immigrants who are voting in US elections would actually be the very definition of 'African-American.' So I was curious to hear what Fragano to say about it.


#103 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:54 PM:

Bruce, I've seen the same polls, but -- but -- oh, okay. Come on, North Carolina, bring it home!

Elizabeth Dole is going to lose, too. And Bruce, now that you're back -- what do you think about Michelle Bachmann's chances, out in Minnesota-6? (Not that her opponent is any prize, but still, she needs to lose.)

#104 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:54 PM:

Good luck from the UK, I aim to be holed up until 3am at which point I hope I'll be satisfied enough that it is safe to sleep for 3 hours, after which the results will probably be inverse to those originally called.

JS: re 1st presidential records, I kinda agree but without turning this into the NFL, my priority is for first 21st century president sane enough not to destroy the world because his friends tell him to.

#105 ::: Tim Walters ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:55 PM:

Now Indiana is 50% Obama, 49% McCain (1% reporting). I knew that last one was too good to be true.

#106 ::: C.E. Petit ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:57 PM:

87 But Obama will be governing from the right... of where I'd prefer to see him governing. I'm a liberal in the European sense, which is to say way the hell to the left of the American political spectrum.

I don't fetishize "business control" as being any less dangerous than "government control" — try actually reading the evidence in Marsh v. Alabama and similar cases about private police forces in company towns.

#107 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:57 PM:

Lizzy L @103:

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

#108 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:58 PM:

Going out to buy a suitable beverage shortly.

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

#109 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:58 PM:

Flemming Meier @82, The rather liberal newspaper Politiken
Liberal as in "kind of left-leaning" or liberal as in "culturally liberal, pro laissez-faire, very very watered-down libertarian"?

#110 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:58 PM:

Going out to buy a suitable beverage shortly.

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

#111 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:59 PM:

Lizzy L @103:

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

#112 ::: Janice in GA ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:59 PM:

Fragano at #2:

When I voted early in Gwinnett Co. last Wednesday, they were calling anyone 75 or older to the head of the line to expedite their voting.

#113 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 06:59 PM:

Okay, two minutes to the first meaningful results. Strap in; here we go.

#114 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:00 PM:

Brooks @ 83 -- If I recall correctly, the Presidential race won't start to be announced until CA polls close... The Senate and House races will start being reported as soon as local polls close...

#115 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:00 PM:

Lizzy L @103:

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

#116 ::: Ian Whitchurch ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:00 PM:

Vigo County, IN. 80% precincts reporting

Obama 18 605
McCain 13 790

As per CNN
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#val=INP00p9

#117 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:02 PM:

Lizzy L @103:

I wrote about Bachmann in @74. I really, really, really want her to lose. But I want Media to win, too. I want both seats.

I want the Minneapolis suburbs to trend Democrat -- that's what I really want.

#118 ::: candle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:02 PM:

Tim Walters@105: have you seen the numbers TPM is reporting for Kentucky? 51% McCain to 48% Obama, with 8% reporting. That's no basis for calling the state, but if early results from Kentucky are as close as that...

#119 ::: debcha ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:03 PM:

Bruce Schneier (#90): I'll bet it's fun having tenure.

John Hart's CV [PDF] says that he finished his PhD in 2006 and started as an Assistant Professor at UMich in 2007. There's no way he has tenure.

But check out nanobliss for more cool nanoscale visualizations he's done.

#120 ::: MacAllister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:03 PM:

Here we go . . .

#121 ::: Randolph ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:03 PM:

JESR, #7: Oh, I hope so. That and I-985 (and what is a Puget Sound regional initiative doing on a statewide ballot, anyway?)

I've decided that people like Eyman who submit sufficiently many bad propositions using questionable means are electoral trolls, and I would like to see their propositions disemvoweled.

#122 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:03 PM:

Kentucky: McCain
Vermont: Obama
Indiana: too close to call

#123 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:04 PM:

McCain takes Kentucky
Obama takes Vermont

Going as expected so far

Indiana and Virginia not determined yet
Georgia not determined yet
South Carolina not determined yet

Amazing

#124 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:04 PM:

C.E. Petit #106: One thing you learn -- if you pay any attention to European politics -- is that the spectrum of political ideas in the U.S. is very narrow. We don't have any liberal party at all, not even close.

#125 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:06 PM:

Bruce Schneier#78 - Her popularity depends on who you talk to.

Most of my friends on both sides of the aisle find her embarassing.

However, if you read the comments sections of our local papers, any article not proclaiming La Sarah's magnificence is part of the vast Left Wing Conspiracy to discredit her snow-white self.

She'll be up for re-election (if she chooses to run) in 2010, and she'll have to go through a primary. She became governor by crushing the universally despised Republican incumbent in the primary. The Dem challenger was a nice guy, but not much sizzle. Sarah's got sizzle.

In private, she's not very popular with the Republicans and not only because she's stuck it to the Randy Ruedrich crowd, but because they know she's cunning at promoting herself but dumb as a box of rocks on the issues, and disinterested in the details of governing. That's per a staffer and some ex-legislators. She's not popular with the Alaska Native leadership.

On the liberal side, up until her nomination she wasn't loved, but she actually was vaguely bipartisan, which is a novel change for up here. Liberals didn't vote for her, but in a state that's historically conservative, they've had worse.

I don't know if she'll get re-elected. The longer she's in office the more time there is for her detractors (count me in) to show her hypocrisy and unsuitability.

However, lots of people are easily distracted by a pretty face.

#126 ::: MW Turnage ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:10 PM:

Just voted in Memphis. Glad I didn't go this morning. Ladies at the poll said that the lines were literally out the door and down the block. In 30+ years that's _never_ happened in this neighborhood.

#127 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:10 PM:

Bruce Schneier#78 - Her popularity depends on who you talk to.

Most of my friends on both sides of the aisle find her embarassing.

However, if you read the comments sections of our local papers, any article not proclaiming La Sarah's magnificence is part of the vast Left Wing Conspiracy to discredit her snow-white self.

She'll be up for re-election (if she chooses to run) in 2010, and she'll have to go through a primary. She became governor by crushing the universally despised Republican incumbent in the primary. The Dem challenger was a nice guy, but not much sizzle. Sarah's got sizzle.

In private, she's not very popular with the Republicans and not only because she's stuck it to the Randy Ruedrich crowd, but because they know she's cunning at promoting herself but dumb as a box of rocks on the issues, and disinterested in the details of governing. That's per a staffer and some ex-legislators. She's not popular with the Alaska Native leadership.

On the liberal side, up until her nomination she wasn't loved, but she actually was vaguely bipartisan, which is a novel change for up here. Liberals didn't vote for her, but in a state that's historically conservative, they've had worse.

I don't know if she'll get re-elected. The longer she's in office the more time there is for her detractors (count me in) to show her hypocrisy and unsuitability.

However, lots of people are easily distracted by a pretty face.

#128 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:10 PM:

PNH #122: Kentucky is w/ only 9% reporting.

(Comments here are processing very slowly here or timing out.)

#129 ::: Kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:11 PM:

How much stock should we put in results called based on 10% of the vote? (I'm much less trusting since 2000.)

#130 ::: Tina S ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:11 PM:

If anyone's interested in watching Indiana, there's a map on the the Star's home page with results. (Also the results of our gubernatorial, which so far aren't going as well, but no Indy proper votes are counted yet, so I'm hopeful.)

#131 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:11 PM:

Does one drink when one's party of preference loses a state/seat or when one's party of preference wins?

#132 ::: Shinydan Howells ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:15 PM:

Speaking as a Brit who's never watched a US election before - how significant is it that none of the major broadcasters is willing to call four of the six states which closed polls at 7pm Eastern? How many of them would be called in a typical election?

#133 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:15 PM:

John L @94: Have a friend who lives in Georgia; she says several of Palin's supposed Repub appeal-points flopped badly:

  • The bible belt is not fond of "Joe Six-Pack"; drinking is a vice they don't approve of;
  • Environmentalism is important because "God gave us stewardship over the earth;"
  • "Hockey mom?" What's hockey? Isn't that a foreign sport?
  • Why is this woman with a small baby playing at politics, anyway?
So McCain may have been assuming that television soundbites would carry the traditionally republican majority of the deep south for him, when he'd picked a running-mate that drove them to look at the other side.

#134 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:16 PM:

Crap. Sorry about the double post. I've been having network issues ALL DAY LONG.

Back to our anxious poll result watching.

#135 ::: John Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:17 PM:

C.E. Petit #106:
Bruce Schneier #124:
Which is a damn shame. We need a broader range of politics and ideas. We need a viable lunatic-fringe left that gets heard. If you don't know where the edges are, how can you find the center?

#136 ::: Ian Whitchurch ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:17 PM:

91% results for Vigo County, Indiana.

Obama 21 425
McCain 16 156.

GWB won Vigo county by 6%.

This is rural south-west Indiana.

It's over.

Barack Obama is the next president of the United States.

#137 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:17 PM:

If you see states Bush carried in 2004 being "too close to call," be happy.

#138 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:18 PM:

Bruce Schneier #34: The coattail issue is important here in Georgia because of the other statewide federal race, the Martin-Chambliss contest for Senate. It looked like a walk for Chambliss until Obama started pushing black and youth registration numbers through the roof. This should be interesting.

#139 ::: Stefan Jones ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:19 PM:

If things go well tonight, I'm setting off fireworks in the parking lot.

#140 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:19 PM:

Arachne @ 131: there is protocol to be followed here, see rule 16 here. It is unclear how rule 14 is to be obeyed tonight.

#141 ::: Niki ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:19 PM:

I'd be interested if anybody has an answer for Kat @129. 10% of the vote seems to be small, given the close spread between candidates. I could imagine a scenario where some precincts are known to have higher Democratic leanings, and if they've already turned in their votes it's probably downhill from here... Or is this one of those statistical issues, where 10% is plenty (or, is it a combination of the 10% plus exit polls)? If somebody's explained this, I'm afraid I haven't paid close enough attention before now.

Also, anybody know of any sites doing this sort of close analysis? (internets only, since I am at a cafe)

#142 ::: Wirelizard ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:20 PM:

#131/Arachne Does one drink... Yes.

This Canuckistani resident is going to be up late watching your election online, which I noticably did NOT do during our own (dull and unneeded) federal election last month.

Regarding Bruce's comment on the narrowness of the US political spectrum: true compared to Canada too, although we tend to be left-shifted and a bit narrower than the European spectrum. Our Conservatives would be liberal Democrats if American, though...

#143 ::: Jenny DB ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:20 PM:

Any thoughts on the results for Proposition 1000 - Death with Dignity Act in Washington?

#144 ::: Jenny DB ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:21 PM:

Any thoughts on the results for Proposition 1000 - Death with Dignity Act in Washington?

#145 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:21 PM:

Arachne @131: One drinks when a newscast uses an election-day buzzword.

Drink for the phrase "exit poll."
Drink for any mention of voter fraud or disenfranchisement.
Sip for announcement of voting hours; drink for announcement that the polls are closed.
Sip for the phrase "Ahead/behind by ## points;" drink for the phrase "too close to call."

Drink for any candidate announced as winning anything.

The idea is to get too drunk to care about which of your issues/candidates didn't go the way you wanted.

#146 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:22 PM:

Come onnnn, IN!!

Polls closing here in NC in ten minutes. At 6 a nice young man knocked on the door to make sure I'd voted. I told him I had, and asked if he was getting many people out. He said most everyone he'd talked to had already voted. That's good news. Come on, NC too!

#147 ::: Constance ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:22 PM:

They just opened the gates to Grant Park. The cheers ....

I'm hearing this on Air America. At 7:21 PM EST.

Love, c.

#148 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:22 PM:

Arachne #131 - Yes. The answer is yes.

I'm going to go look at Wonkette's drinking game. I saw it on a tweet, but haven't made it over there.

#149 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:22 PM:

Chambliss is another one of those who dearly deserves to lose. I don't think he will, but oh, how I'd love to be wrong.

According to Nate Silver at 538, Obama is beating Kerry's by-county percentage numbers in Indiana by "substantial" margins.

#150 ::: don delny ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:23 PM:

Kathryn Cramer, 110

Regarding the Talking Points Memo scoreboard, though it's not scoring anything yet, it seems to be happier with Firefox than Safari. I get a spinning wheel w/ it in Safari just now, but it looks like it's supposed to in Firefox.

I've got it up as a stand alone app in Google Chrome, but I'm just using the race calculator bit to model the EV's. Pretty nifty!

I also like the fact that it is called a 'race' calculator and that the majority of people my age and younger won't have any idea that this word connotates anything other than a contest.

#151 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:23 PM:

debcha #45: African-American describes an ethnicity. Someone from Nigeria, or Panama, or Trinidad, regardless of citizenship, does not belong to that ethnicity. In addition, too many people of that ethnicity are using 'African-American' as a synonym for 'black'. As in 'I am inspired by the example of Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, Nelson Mandela, and other great African-Americans' uttered by a young lady at a MLK Day event I attended some years back.

#152 ::: Laramie Sasseville ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:24 PM:

"can anyone think of a good reason why Sarah Palin wouldn't tell reporters who she voted for?"

[snark]She is a married woman. She can't say anything that might reveal her hidden feelings for Obama. [/snark]

But really, if she voted for her own ticket it wouldn't be ladylike to say as much.

Al Franken does come across as a sleaze, but that doesn't count for much with the many of us who are fed up to here (pointing over my head) with clean cut Norm Coleman.

#153 ::: Doc Hatter ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:24 PM:

I wonder how much of the Vigo County, IN result is youth vote turnout: Terre Haute is home to Rose-Hulman and Indiana State.

#154 ::: Jennifer Barber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:24 PM:

Fragano #138: I'm really, really hoping that's enough to get rid of Chambliss. And I'm worried that a lot of those new voters won't bother turning up again if it does go to a run-off, as it probably will.

#155 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:26 PM:

Anxious, anxious

Pessimistically - a small Democrat win, EC votes a tad under 300.

Looking forward to VA & NC - really really really

SC would be OTT

Beverages - a bottle of organic rose wine from Mendocino cos I like the McGarrigle song.

And I have a bottle of Tusker beer. I'm opening it when I think Obama has won. His cousins will know what that is even if you don't. :-)

#156 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:26 PM:

Randolph @121, I think Rossi's nasty advertising over the past week may well have been his undoing. I hope.

I suspect, also, that the new voters are going to be anti-Eyman; young people and urban people have been disproportianately hurt by his initiatives, especially that first one.

#157 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:26 PM:

NC's polls may close in 10 minutes, but Wake County (Raleigh) won't release their vote numbers until 8:30. We had one precinct get a slow start so the entire county's numbers will be delayed an hour.

Wake County is considered a bellweather county for some odd reason. I don't think anyone will be able to call NC until those numbers are in either.

#158 ::: Shalom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:28 PM:

Indiana is looking good

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

#159 ::: Cyllan ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:29 PM:

Shinydan Howell @132: Not very significant at all, really. "Polls close" means that no one else is allowed to get in line to vote. You still have to process everyone who is in line, tabulate the votes, do all of the fiddly bits, and then report the votes.

The numbers that you're looking for are X%reporting which means that X percent of all precincts have reported the votes cast.

#160 ::: Shalom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:29 PM:

Indiana is looking good

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

#161 ::: Martin Schafer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:31 PM:

niki @ 141 The networks rarely have to back track on calling a state. It's all about having a good model of how the voting in the areas that have reported relate to how the state as a whole votes, and how voting matches up with recent poll data, and they put a lot of work into that. Of course this is a year where historical models are more likely to fail. It's possible that they are making a mistake, but it's unlikely to be a stupid mistake.

#162 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:32 PM:

Ohio not determined
NC not determined
WV not determined

#163 ::: Flemming Meier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:32 PM:

Raphael @109: Liberal as in left leaning and culturally liberal. (http://politiken.dk/).

#164 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:32 PM:

NC: too close to call
OH: too early to call
WV: too early to call
IN: too close to call
GA: too early to call
VA: too early to call
SC: too early to call

#165 ::: albatross ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:34 PM:

I'm sensing a pattern here....

#166 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:35 PM:

Kat #129: Low percentage returns can be very decieving because they're not uniform.

For exmaple, right now McCain is ahead in VA, but the only two areas who have reported are conservative areas of the state.

#167 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:35 PM:

Elfwreck @#86:

Fortunately, there's a template... you can almost grab the anti-miscegenation law arguments and rulings and replace the word "race" with "sex" and hand them back in.

As noted in a video by none other than Samuel L. Jackson, via Greta Christina's blog.

#168 ::: Leighton Fansler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:35 PM:

All the results I'm showing for IN (via CNN and NYT) show McCain leading ... are there different results I should be looking at?

#169 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:37 PM:

Sky says NBC is reporting Indiana as too close to call.

The BBC is focusing heavily on a countdown timer for each set of states, down to the second. It is beginning to become cringeworthy when they fire the graphics up and then again have nothing report. Is that really how it works though, that on the buzzer the state can/should be reporting?

#170 ::: Glenn Hauman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:37 PM:

"can anyone think of a good reason why Sarah Palin wouldn't tell reporters who she voted for?"

Of course. She doesn't want to go on record as saying she voted for a convicted felon for Senate, and she can't say she didn't vote for the Republican candidate.

#171 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:38 PM:

NBC lists McSame ahead in IN..

#172 ::: Philip Jensen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:38 PM:

Please start this meme: the 60-vote cloture requirement is NOT in the Constitution. The new majority should insist on getting rid of it, or at least insist that if the opposition are going to use it, they actually have to stay awake and talking round the clock. Republicans love to talk about strict construction of the Constitution, so remind them: filibusters are NOT in the Constitution.

#173 ::: Cat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:40 PM:

Environmentalism is important because "God gave us stewardship over the earth;"

Finally, there are some sane Christians in America.

#174 ::: Ian Whitchurch ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:42 PM:

And now from the other corner of Indiana ... Steuben County up in the north-east.

2004 GWB 8433, Kerry 4345

2008 (95% reporting) McCain 7288, Obama 5905

When the swing is on, it's on.

#175 ::: Algebrat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:42 PM:

New thread please...

And I hate to be a radical...
but shouldn't new posts queue in at the top?
That way we can see when there is a new post?

PS: Is bottom insertion an example of entrenched technology?

#176 ::: Kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:42 PM:

Bruce @ 166

Right. So what are the factors that make CNN think it can call one state with 3% of the vote in, but not another? I imagine that it's largely expectations, in other words, a good guess.

What I'm wondering is how much stock I should put in their projected winners when they call them.

#177 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:43 PM:

NPR's Andrea Seabrook reports from the Republican HQ in Columbus that there are no attendees at the party scheduled at the Hyatt Regency there.

Hmm. Snarky speculation from Robert Seigel that they're all out challenging results.

#178 ::: Tlönista ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:43 PM:

Stefan Jones @139: everyone's going to be blowing shit up tomorrow anyway!

Wirelizard @142: Here's how I figure it:

CANADA - U. K. - UNITED STATES
Green Party - Green Party - ?
NDP - Lib Dems - Green Party
Liberals - Labour - ?
Tories - Tories - Democrats
CHP - BNP - Republicans
Neo-Rhino Party - Monster Raving Loony Party - Boston Tea Party

#179 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:43 PM:

Leighton Fansler @168: The precincts that have reported in IN are the precincts that McCain is supposed to win. He's winning them by a much lower margin than Bush won them four years ago.

#180 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:44 PM:

U.S. popular vote Obama 51%, McSame 48% 2.2 million or so reporting (per NBC)

#181 ::: John Mark Ockerbloom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:44 PM:

With 20 minutes to go before polling closes in PA, my Mount Airy, Philadelphia polling place where I waited for an hour this AM (as reported in aprevious thread) has no line-- looks like folks voted early. They had recorded 542 votes when I went by. There are 717 people on the rolls for this location, meaning we had a turnout of over 75%.

This precinct generally has a higher-than-usual turnout for the city, but it's usually not this high. This bodes well for Philly turnout, and it seems unlikely that McCain will be able to flip the state.

#182 ::: DavidS ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:45 PM:

In the oddball news category, Nader apparently gave a press conference this afternoon in which he answered all questions with only a single word. I am tempted to suggest that trolls on probation be similarly limited to only one vowel.

#183 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:45 PM:

If you want some busy-work to do while you wait, read Andrew Gelman & Nate Silver's paper "What will we know on Tuesday by 7PM?" and do the math.

#184 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:46 PM:

Sky UK reports McCain wins West Virginia, whereas BBC just gives two results.

#185 ::: Leighton Fansler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:47 PM:

Bruce (#179) -- thanks -- I didn't realize that. It's good to know.

#186 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:47 PM:

Kat @176: After the FL problem of 2000, the networks are pretty conservative about calling states. Generally, I'd wait for a consensus among several networks.

#187 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:48 PM:

@169, not at all.

"Polls closed" just mean that nobody else is allowed to get in line -- it doesn't even mean voting is finished. The precincts then need to count up the votes and report them -- you'll see numbers like "9% of precincts reporting". Early numbers are misleading not only because they're small but because they aren't uniform -- they're showing McCain with a lead in VA, for instance, but if you look at the county-level numbers on the NYT site you'll see that the more liberal northern part of the state doesn't have results yet. Similarly Indiana is shown as leaning toward McCain, but Gary, in the northwest part of the state -- right next to Chicago -- hasn't reported yet.

#188 ::: Nathan Russell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:49 PM:

Kat@176:

The networks don't want to call any state until its polls close, because that discourages people. If they wanted to, they could call DC, NY, CA, ... for Obama now, and likewise TX, UT, ID... for McCain.

When a state is safe, or darned near safe, the networks can reasonably call it as soon as the hour ticks over. That's the case in VT for Obama, as the first example that's easy to spot on the map I'm using.

Question: Does Obama pretty much have at least one of FL, PA and VA in the bag? If so, I believe it's over now?

#189 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:50 PM:

AP says 1/3 of those who voted for the incumbent Republican governor of Indiana ... also voted for Obama.

#190 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:50 PM:

#173 Cat:
> Finally, there are some sane Christians in America.

There is a test for whether or not politics are Christian

Jesus's first sermon (in Luke chapter 4) quotes the prophet Isaiah as a sort of manifesto:

"The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed me to proclaim good news to the poor. He has sent me to proclaim liberty to the captives and recovering of sight to the blind, to set at liberty those who are oppressed, to proclaim the year of the Lord’s favour."

So, seriously, the test to see if any political platform is Christian should be:

Is this good news for the poor?
Does this free captives?
Will the blind recover their sight?
Are the oppressed to be set free?

#191 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:51 PM:

More data on IN. I think we have this one.

#192 ::: Tina S ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:51 PM:

Also about Indiana's too close to call: Marion County, which contains a) 1/8th of the state's population and b) a lot of the state's left-leaning voters, was at 2.2% until the last update and showing a slight McCain lead. It is now at 7.9% and showing a significant Obama lead, and I would guess that it will continue to be blue.

#193 ::: triscuit ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:52 PM:

My feet are tired from the last gasp of GoTV canvassing. Good news is that only 1 person hadn't yet voted, and was on her way after the daycare kids were all picked up. I am hopeful that we've done everything we could to convince people to get out and vote for Obama. It looks like nearly 100% turnout in the southern parts of Maine.
The senate race is a tough sell up here though. Collins is well liked and well funded.

#194 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:52 PM:

Okay, I just seriously overtipped the Chinese delivery guy (paid $40 for a $32 order.) No real biggie, but I hadn't realized I was stressed enough to trash my mental math....

And TPM still only has VT and KY on the board... where's VA? *twitch* ;-)

#195 ::: Nathan Russell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:53 PM:

Obama's catching up in IN.

#196 ::: Martin Schafer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:53 PM:

Kajun @ 169 The count down is to when the polls close. Prior to that point no final totals (bar the NH special case) for any precinct are available and it is illegal to report any partial results that might be available. Once the polls close some well organized precincts with no lines (if you are in line at the point the polls close you get to vote no matter how long it take) will be able to report results almost immediately. Other precincts may not have final totals for hours and in some special cases (absentee ballots mailed by election day for example) votes will be trickling in for days. Usually things aren't close enough for those late votes to matter.

#197 ::: Shalom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:53 PM:

Florida is much harder to tell, by counties, how much Obama is out-performing Kerry (Indiana is pretty clear).

I think it's because the early totals in Florida are all from early voting -- 0% precincts in, but tens or hundreds of thousands of votes counted. Therefore *who* turned out for early voting (versus who is voting today) is really going to skew the results.

And from pre-election surveys, we figure about 60% of the total turnout was from early voting (versus low 20's in Indiana).

So it will probably be quite a while before we have a clear picture of the results in Florida (for a change...)

#198 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:54 PM:

jenny db @144, social-change initiatives have historically needed at least two elections to pass, although it's been a while since the last one.

#199 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:54 PM:

What Bruce said about Indiana. It's looking good...and the northwest, right next to Chicago, isn't in yet.

#200 ::: Andy Brazil ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:55 PM:

BBC just called S Carolina for McCain

#201 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:55 PM:

Meanwhile, WTF is that criminal Ken Blackwell doing on my TV? Pfaugh.

#202 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:55 PM:

South Carolina goes for McCain

Not surprised

McCain 16
Obama 3

#203 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:57 PM:

Question: Does Obama pretty much have at least one of FL, PA and VA in the bag?

Not yet, no. I don't think the polls in FL or PA have closed yet.

#204 ::: Leslie in CA ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:57 PM:

NBC has called SC for Obama.

#205 ::: Leslie in CA ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:57 PM:

NBC has called SC for McCain.

#206 ::: Dave Robinson ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:58 PM:

BBC News is weird - they've called SC for McCain but the tallies they're showing for the same state are showing a healthy lead for Obama.

#207 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 07:59 PM:

Josh Marshall just now observed that the networks are being unusually careful about "calling" states early, having been badly burned in different ways in the last two elections.

#209 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:00 PM:

So, what are we watching on television?

#210 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:00 PM:

Someone -- maybe Hulabaloo -- suggested that, if the night goes well, watching Fox News. I'll kind of be like going to the funeral for someone you're glad died.

#211 ::: Jeff Grossman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:00 PM:

CNN has called SC for McCain.

#212 ::: Leslie in CA ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:00 PM:

Sorry about 204 ... wishful thinking.

#213 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:01 PM:

MSNBC gives IL and PA and NJ and MA to Obama

#214 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:02 PM:

South Carolina???! Are you sure?

#216 ::: Cat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:02 PM:

Ken @ 190

So, seriously, the test to see if any political platform is Christian should be:

Is this good news for the poor?
Does this free captives?
Will the blind recover their sight?
Are the oppressed to be set free?

Which is why I, as a Christian, am a social democrat (by European standards. I suspect that by US standards I'm a liberal pinko Commie.)

#217 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:02 PM:

BBC reports Penn and New Hampshire for Obama
Sky (via Fox) reports Mass for Obama

#218 ::: Nathan Russell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:03 PM:

Bruce, I don't have internet at home, so I'm in a school computer lab. I've got 6-7 tabs open - a meebo window where i'm talking with various friends, this thread, the daily kos map, fivethirtyeight.com, and google's elections page.

#219 ::: James D. Macdonald ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:03 PM:

#175: Bottom insertion is our tradition here.

Newest posts on top is an invitation to drive-bys.

#220 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:04 PM:

I have just fallen over laughing at the CNN alert, in which they have called Maine for Obama with 3 votes reporting.

Not 3 precincts. Three votes.

(Two for Obama, one for McCain, as it happens.)

Clearly this is based on the polls being "not even close" and backed up by exit polls and such, not on actual results. But even so, I was quite amused.

#221 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:05 PM:

PA NO WAY OMG

#222 ::: Dave Bell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:06 PM:

The BBC coverage of the last few days has felt warped, as if they haven;t had the context to know that a Republican spokesman talking about a State being "close" was pointing about a state that used to be unassailable Republican territory.

#223 ::: Chris Adams ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:06 PM:

Anyone else receive a "Breaking News Alert" call from 866-252-6256 predicting Democratic landslides in a bunch of key states? It looks like this number has been used by a call-bank for awhile but I haven't seen any reports as to who owns it and calls go straight to a voice mail which very carefully avoids giving any identifying information.

#224 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:06 PM:

Pennsylvania goes BLUE!!!
Illinois goes BLUE!!
NH goes BLUE!!!
NJ goes BLUE!!!
Massachusetts goes BLUE!!!

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!


Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

#225 ::: Michael Martin ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:06 PM:

Ken Brown #190:
Will the blind recover their sight?

Vote the Christian Cyborg Transhumanist Party!

#226 ::: DavidS ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:07 PM:

Does anyone here know VA? I can see that the precincts that reported are rural, and near the WV border, so I assume they are the most conservative part of the state. What I don't know is to what extent that's true -- is McCain's lead there a worrying sign, or just what you'd expect?

#227 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:08 PM:

Going visiting -- dinner with a friend, beer, TV. Back later.

We're going to win this thing.

#228 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:08 PM:

Pennsylvania goes BLUE!!!
Illinois goes BLUE!!
NH goes BLUE!!!
NJ goes BLUE!!!
Massachusetts goes BLUE!!!

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!


Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

#229 ::: Ian Whitchurch ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:09 PM:

Final numbers from Steuben County up in the north-east of Indiana.

2004 GWB 8433, Kerry 4345

2008 McCain 7670, Obama 6283

McCain has 763 less votes than GWB got, and Obama has 2938 more.

In 2004, Steuben County delivered 4088 net votes for GWB. This year, McCain has a lead of 1387 to offset the margins Obama will rack up in urban districts.

When the swing is on, it's on.

#230 ::: Daniel Klein ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:09 PM:

Hah! I poked the three or four close friends from the US I have today, and it turns out one of them thought she wasn't registered (anymore? She thought leaving the country made her registration go away?) and I said that sounds unlikely, so she checked and it turns out she was still registered to vote in her parents' hometown--Columbus, IN.

Come on, Indiana!

#231 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:10 PM:

#219 Bottom insertion is our tradition here.

Vote no on 8.

#232 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:10 PM:

BBC gives Oklahoma to McCain; Connecticut, Maine and New Jersey to Obama

#233 ::: Natalie L. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:10 PM:

As expected, Delaware has gone for Obama. We're small, but it makes me happy.

#234 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:11 PM:

Pennsylvania goes BLUE!!!
Illinois goes BLUE!!
NH goes BLUE!!!
NJ goes BLUE!!!
Massachusetts goes BLUE!!!

Tennessee goes for McCain
Oklahoma goes for McCain

Maryland goes BLUE!!!
Connecticut goes BLUE!!
Maine goes 3/4 for Obama!!
Delaware goes BLUE!!
DC goes BLUE!!


Florida still unknown (55% for Obama)
Missouri still unknown
Alabama still unknown (WTF???)
Mississippi still unknown (WTF???)

Obama 102
McCain 34

#235 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:13 PM:

WHO CALLED PA?

I'm watching CBS, they didn't call it yet....

#236 ::: Jeff Grossman ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:17 PM:

FOX calls Dole has lost.

(Ewww, they've got Rick Santorum on as a commentator. I think I need to disinfect my TV.)

#237 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:17 PM:

We're sorry the site is running so slowly. I've just submitted a trouble ticket. Our hosting provider (Hosting Matters) is generally very responsive, so the speed may improve soon.

#238 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:18 PM:

Who has called PA?

And I think we're breaking the servers here. Please wait a long time before you try to post your comment a second time.

#239 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:18 PM:

Any news downballot? Is Dole dead in NC?

#240 ::: John Mark Ockerbloom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:18 PM:

The nets that called PA apparently did so on the basis of exit polls. We just officially closed a few minutes ago; no results are yet posted to the Dept. of State website.

Not everyone's called it yet (ABC has; the Phila. Inquirer has not), but the early call is hopefully a good sign.

#241 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:18 PM:

The NYT web dashboard is pretty useful, showing which networks have called each state. Not sure how quickly the data is updated though. For PA they have ABC and NBC calling Obama.

I'm watching BBC and Sky News and downing salt water furiously. Thanks for the explanations earlier.

#242 ::: Vicki ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:18 PM:

Just a heads-up: electoral-vote.com is coloring maps prematurely, based on limited results, and says so. (The example the webmaster gives is that if Austin reported first, the map would briefly show Obama as winning, and if some upstate counties reported first, it would show McCain winning New York.)

#243 ::: punkrockhockeymom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:19 PM:

Bruce!! Patrick!! Xopher!!

I would feel so much better if even ONE of you were in my living room, so that every time any pundit spoke you could debunk in real time, without my having to post or refresh. Srsly. I think that in my daily life I am a non-panicky, logical, analytical thinker.

I'm going insane!

I have now MUTED the volume on CNN. But that means that we can't play the drinking game. Although I've got to go pick up Dylan at 9:00 from the ice rink. So I should probably wait to start drinking anyway.

Hockeymoms for Obama! Go Indiana, Go!!!

(Things will be infinitely better, I think, when I can replace the caffeine with wine)

#244 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:20 PM:

DavidS @ 226: Yeah, south-west Virginia is pretty heavily conservative. There's a big demographic split in Virginia between the rural areas out there and the urban and suburban clusters around D.C.

#245 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:20 PM:

Obama leads in NC by several hundred thousand votes

#246 ::: abi ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:20 PM:

PA called by MSNBC & ABC per TPM

#247 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:20 PM:

We're sorry the site is running so slowly. I've just submitted a trouble ticket. Our hosting provider (Hosting Matters) is generally very responsive, so the speed may improve soon.

#248 ::: Paul Harrison ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:21 PM:

#239, Bruce, according to NPR Hagan has beaten Dole.

#249 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:21 PM:

Bruce Schneier @209:So, what are we watching on television?

I've mostly gotten out of the whole TV habit for a while. It helps that over the summer, the leaves get in the way of satelite reception. And right now, TV would distract me from the Web.

#250 ::: Earl Cooley III ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:21 PM:

Bruce Schneier #209: So, what are we watching on television?

The Elder Scrolls III: Morrowind, on my classic XBox; at this point in the hotly contested election, it seems that an overconfident Archmagister Gothren will likely lose his leadership of Great House Telvanni to an outlander, stark-born to sire uncertain. In this case, exit polls require a good Conjuration skill.

#251 ::: Ginger ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:21 PM:

DavidS @ 226: Most of Virginia is quite conservative, with the exception of Northern Virginia, next to DC/Maryland, so seeing a trend for McCain isn't worrying. The news here is calling the VA Senate race for the Democratic candidate, which should be good news for Obama too.

NBC is calling Pennsylvania for Obama. That's huge.

#252 ::: Terry Karney ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:22 PM:

Longest wait I have ever had, about five minutes, at 0830. The other precinct in the building was about 15 minutes.

My companion did something he's never done, in some 45 years of voting... punched the straight ticket for the Dems. He laments the absence of a Goldwater.

When we went to Starbucks (ghey give away coffe on election day) we saw an elderly, and somewhat frail black woman, beaming to burn the clouds from the sky... 90 years old and happy as ever could be. You bet she voted.

#253 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:22 PM:

MSNBC called PA for Obama. Fox is calling Hagan over Dole.

#254 ::: Pauline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:22 PM:

Calling in from Sydney Australia... just put our public broadcast television station on - just endless rehashing of CNN with some local commentary... like the rest of the world, hoping for an Obama win.

Always bemused by the GOTV stuff... here attending a polling booth on election day(always on a Saturday to make sure most people have time off) is compulsory, what you do once you get there is optional - but most people take the opportunity to vote.

#255 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:23 PM:

Who's in CT? Can we put a fork in Chris Shays yet?

#256 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:23 PM:

CBS and Fox call NC-Sen for Hagan.

#257 ::: Jon Meltzer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:25 PM:

Shaheen defeats Sununu in New Hampshire, and Boston area TV viewers rejoice that they will never have to see that race's ads again.

Democrats up 3 in the Senate, so far.

#258 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:26 PM:

Vigo County! Yes! Home of Rose-Hulman Inst. of Tech. (my own alma mater) and Indiana State. The locals' "fun thing" is to park along Wabash Avenue with hoods up displaying really nice engines. Known in the 80's for its odoriferous chemical industry (now, not so much) and a predilection for heavy metal.

Conservative as hell. Now Blue. (Not to worry, John - lots of red counties still - O 47.4% M 51.4% at the moment.)

Inkidentally, the Indy Star is calling Texas and Georgia blue as well. And West Virginia and Ohio and North Carolina. That's freaky.

#259 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:26 PM:

Local poll #'s show Hagan 63%, Dole 37%

Those numbers are staggering, but I have seen a LOT of Dole supporters turn away from her after she ran that "Godless America" commercial just this weekend.

#260 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:26 PM:

Mom tells me that Rockefeller Plaza (on NBC/MSNBC) is lit up in red, white and blue for your viewing pleasure.

#261 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:26 PM:

MSNBC called PA.

#262 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:26 PM:

Eliz. Dole is out - I have hopes for NC :-)

There are UK sites calling Texas for Obama. Tell me that's not true...

#263 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:30 PM:

Local news says Hagen has got 65% of the vote. I think that landslide took place right after Dole ran that "Godless America" ad; I know a lot of Dole supporters who turned away from her after that ad was run.

Obama leads McCain by 150,000 in NC

#264 ::: Bob Oldendorf ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:30 PM:

#238 Who has called PA?

ABC, about 8:15

I'm here in suburban Albany NY, and my daughters and I are about to walk over to my Town Hall to pick up my wife, who left at 5:30 this morning to work all day as Election Inspector. (Yay, democracy!)

I'll get my local precinct results, too, but they won't be a surprise, as we're now a solidly Dem district.

#265 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

Inhofe re-elected.

I believe ABC still hasn't called WV for McCain.

#266 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

What a surprise. CNN calls most of the northeast for Obama. And TN for McCain.

#267 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

According to our hosting provider, the problem is Movable Type 3's inherent inefficiencies. I've suspected for a while that we need to move either to WordPress or MT4. We need to recruit a sympathetic person we can pay to help us with this. More on this later--back to the election.

#268 ::: James Westby ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

Hello from the UK,

This is my first time posting to the site, but I've been reading it for a while, after I was pointed to it from a friend.

Tonight I have a choice of following the results on the BBC and on CNN. The BBC isn't talking much about results, and is discussing issues more. However they have a large number of pundits rotating, and they are just asking the making the same points over and over again, and not really getting in to the issues. CNN is just an onslaught of numbers though, and I don't find numbers from states with Hello from the UK,

This is my first time posting to the site, but I've been reading it for a while, after I was pointed to it from a friend.

Tonight I have a choice of following the results on the BBC and on CNN. The BBC isn't talking much about results, and is discussing issues more. However they have a large number of pundits rotating, and they are just asking the making the same points over and over again, and not really getting in to the issues. CNN is just an onslaught of numbers though, and I don't find numbers from states with

One interesting point was that Americans are happy with a divided government, and that has been used as tactic by the Republicans in some states to keep them in the running for Senate seats. In the UK we would hate to see a coalition or minority government, and are much more happy when there is one party in charge.

Perhaps someone can help me though. One commentator said that it would be important for Obama to get a "fillibuster-proof" majority in the Senate so that he can make the reforms that he wants without the Republicans obstructing. I thought I knew what a fillibuster was, but I didn't think it was possible to have a majority that would prevent the minority from using the tactic. Is there some aspect that I am missing?

Thanks,

James


#269 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

Nate Silver says:

AP Calls New Hampshire

The speed of the call in the Granite State is the best evidence yet that Obama is about to become the next president.

I think the IN returns are the best evidence yet, but I'll take both.

#270 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

Terry Karney @252:

"Longest wait I have ever had, about five minutes, at 0830. The other precinct in the building was about 15 minutes."

It takes longer to post a comment here.

#271 ::: David ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

We still know nothing yet. All Kerry-Bush states are still Kerry-Bush states.

Except that we do know that McCain is underperforming Bush in key counties in IN, VA, and especially Florida. This is significant if the trends continue.

#272 ::: Chris Adams ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-ap-elexresults-ctcongress,0,6091949.htmlstory has Shays well behind but that's with 6% reporting.

#273 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

I'm just settling in for the long haul tonight. One thing I noticed - early returns in Georgia show McCain getting more votes than Chambliss. Hopefully this keeps Chambliss under 50%.

#274 ::: Julie Holm ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

Dole is dead. My stepdaughter in NC is ecstatic. Warner won in Virginia. It's looking good.

I'm in my hotel in Brooklyn, wearing my Obama "Believe 01.20.09" tee shirt.

Julie

#275 ::: Paul Harrison ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:31 PM:

I think the early voting results are what's mainly being counted in TX right now - and that includes the major urban areas, which skew democratic. Especially here in Travis County in Austin, where a full half of the electorate voted early.

Of course, if Texas goes for Obama I'll jump for joy.

#276 ::: Alex Cohen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:33 PM:

Mississippi exit polls McCain 50% Obama 49%.

People ought to be watching pollster - they're doing some magic with exit polls and demographics to project vote totals. So far, national vote is 54%/44%. I'll take a ten-point victory.

#277 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:33 PM:

Stop paying so much attention to the networks, guys.

The NYT (which is VERY conservative about calling states, and which shows county-by-county maps of where reports are in) has zero precincts in from Pennsylvania. Anyone calling it is basing their call based purely on polls, and not on votes.

#278 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:33 PM:

Oh, and this is rich... though not particularly unexpected!

#279 ::: pixelfish ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:36 PM:

Ken@262: My theory is that they surveyed exit polls in Austin, thinking since it was the capital of Texas it might be an accurate barometer. But in my wildest daydreams, Texas going Obama would be very sweet indeed.

#280 ::: J Random Scribbler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:36 PM:

DavidS@226 - I lived in VA for six years and DC for 3. The counties reporting in so far are mostly the more conservative and rural ones; watch for Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William Counties in the northeastern region near DC. They're not "real Americans" there, ha ha.

Albemarle County (Charlottesville/UVA) is likely to go Democratic as well.

The southeasternmost counties, in the Virginia Beach/Norfolk area are highly populated, but also have a high proportion of military families; I'm not going to try predicting them at all.

Disclaimer: haven't lived there for a decade, YMMV.

#281 ::: John Mark Ockerbloom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:36 PM:

Tapes are posted outside our polling place (Division 13, Ward 9, Philadelphia, PA)

Obama: 510
McCain: 28
Barr, Nader: 0

(there might also be a few undervotes; I forgot to check for that)

Mount Airy isn't necessarily representative of Philly or PA as a whole, as I've said before. But that's still quite a satisfying blowout to see.

#282 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:36 PM:

No results yet from Lake County, IN (Gary).

Anyone wonder why not?

--ex-Hoosier

#283 ::: Thena ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:37 PM:

JDM @219 That and, politics excepted, some of the threads around here just don't make any sense at all unless you start from the beginning and read all 567 comments to get from indigenous costume to dinosaur sodomy via single malt whisk(e)y and the merits of fiat currency. In iambic pentameter.

PNH @237 The whole internet is slow tonight, I think all of America (and a large portion of everyone else) is all trying to fit in the same tubes at once.

#284 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:37 PM:

Much too much has been made of 60 as a magic number in the Senate. As someone said, 60 isn't a number, it's a zone.

#285 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:37 PM:

If Texas goes for Obama Rove and Bush will both suffer heart attacks.

#286 ::: Clifton Royston ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:38 PM:

Fivethirtyeight posts that Hagan has beaten Dole in NC, Warner's won VA and Shaneen beat Sununu (yes! that old slime!) in NH.

#287 ::: Paula Helm Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

I'm watching the Food Network.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.


#288 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

Vigo County! Yes! Home of Rose-Hulman Inst. of Tech. (my own alma mater) and Indiana State. The locals' "fun thing" is to park along Wabash Avenue with hoods up displaying really nice engines. Known in the 80's for its odoriferous chemical industry (now, not so much) and a predilection for heavy metal.

Conservative as hell. Now Blue.

#289 ::: John Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

Algebrat #175:
Threads here are very conversational, including some long posts. It is a lot easier to read a conversation with bottom posting.

#290 ::: Janet Lafler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

James @268 -- in the U.S. Senate, a filibuster can e ended with a vote of 60 Senators. Highly unlikely the Dems will get that majority, even counting Lieberman.

#291 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

MSNBC just called GA for McCain. Ah, well. I wanted to win GA.

#292 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

Tom Brokaw is stunned that George W. Bush being President is hurting John McCain.

#293 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

NC ELECTS HAGAN 60-40 YES!

Hahahah Dole campaign refuses to concede.

#294 ::: Nicole TWN ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

Just got back--no line at my polling place; in and out in 5 minutes. w00t!

PunkRockHockeyMom@243: I would totally sign up for that service. I'm picturing maybe a picture-in-picture thing: pundit speaks, Bruce/Patrick/Xopher debunk.

Hell, I'd get premium cable if that were included.

#295 ::: Paula Helm Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:41 PM:

I'm watching the Food Network.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.


#296 ::: Jim Bumgardner ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:42 PM:

CNN calls PA for Obama as well.

#297 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:43 PM:

MSNBC called PA.

#298 ::: Allan Beatty ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:43 PM:

James @ 268: What filibuster means:

The Senate normally has no time limit on debates. This means that as long as someone is willing to keep talking, they can delay a vote indefinitely. It takes a 60% vote to suspend the normal rules in order to cut off debate.

#299 ::: Rikibeth ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:43 PM:

WFSB hasn't called the fourth House district yet, so I don't know about Shays.

In the interests of sanity, the TV is on a House marathon, and I'm merely poking the Internet.

http://www.wfsb.com/news/17892255/detail.html#-

#300 ::: chryss ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:43 PM:

The "Texas for Obama" thing on the guardian.co.uk map is based on 1500 votes from downtown Austin. It's light blue on the NYC map, too.

#301 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:45 PM:

CNN finally called PA for Obama. They're being very conservative about calling states.

I don't see how McCain wins without PA.

#302 ::: Tina S ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:45 PM:

Ken@282 (and anyone else who was wondering):
Long lines at poll closing time means a delay in counting, apparently.

#303 ::: Julie ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:45 PM:

I'll be shocked - but happy - if Texas goes for Obama. I'm in Collin County, which is predicted go to "purple" this year. This was the reddest county in TX four years ago.

#304 ::: G. Jules ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:46 PM:

Here in Massachusetts, CNN is predicting that ballot question one will not pass and the state will keep the income tax. Fingers crossed that they're right on this one!

#305 ::: G. Jules ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:47 PM:

Here in Massachusetts, CNN is predicting that ballot question one will not pass and the state will keep the income tax. Fingers crossed that they're right on this one!

#306 ::: Paula Helm Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:48 PM:

I'm watching the Food Network.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.


#307 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:49 PM:

My wife thinks I've gone overboard. Please tell her there's nothing wrong with this setup and that the rest of you are doing something similar:

1) TV with picture-in-picture to monitor networks.
2) Laptop on table to right of ManChair with major sites, Twitter and IM. Thank goodness for the auto-refresh Firefox plugin
3) Laptop on table to left of ManChair with four video streams, unmuted as needed.
4) iPhone getting text messages, phone calls.

#308 ::: Paula Helm Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:49 PM:

I'm watching the Food Network.

Here is a good enough place to get results and not raise my blood pressure by having to listen to asshats.

I have a regular Tuesday night chat that I will participate in as usual.


#309 ::: G. Jules ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:50 PM:

(Sorry about that -- just got error messages, didn't realize hitting reload would also double-post)

#310 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:50 PM:

Patrick Nielsen Hayden @284: I am so looking forward to kicking Lieberman out of the party.

#311 ::: James Westby ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:50 PM:

Thanks Janet and Allan, I'll keep an eye out for 60 in the senate then. Here's hoping.

#312 ::: Scott Taylor ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:51 PM:

Terry @ 252 -
Longest wait I have ever had, about five minutes, at 0830. The other precinct in the building was about 15 minutes.

My companion did something he's never done, in some 45 years of voting... punched the straight ticket for the Dems. He laments the absence of a Goldwater.

Zombie Barry Goldwater was the topic of much hilarity at the Great Northern Pizza Kitchen I was scavenging* pizza from after getting my free ice cream from the Ben & Jerry's across the street, this evening.

"I project a vast surplus in BRAAANES!"

In other news, CNN currently projects Obama as not only being approaching half-way there to a win - with NY and California (86 electorals between them) not yet called (but almost certainly for Obama), but he's also got nearly three times as many electoral votes as McCain (although admittedly much of the South and Midwest - where McCain is certain to pick up a great number of his votes - have not yet been called, or even had polls close in some instances)

*if by scavenging, I mean "ordering and paying for with the remnants of my last freelancer check", which I do.

#313 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:51 PM:

Ken @282, Lake County (IN) is in the Central Time Zone, unlike most of the rest of the state; polls there close an hour later. It's also more populated, so votes will take longer to count than from rural counties.

#314 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:53 PM:

Texas is not going to go for Obama. There's a long list of states that went for Bush in 2004 that Obama has a fine shot at; Texas is not one of them.

Remember the basics. All Obama needs is the Kerry states (and he hasn't lost one yet) plus Bosh 2004 states Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico--all of which he's led in for weeks, even months--and he wins. He doesn't need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, or Missouri. Winning even one of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, or Missouri would be gravy.

#315 ::: SubtleBlade ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:55 PM:

@307 Lance,

You're slacking, only 1 TV!

;-)

#316 ::: Patricia L Kellar ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:56 PM:

I was in and out of my Henry County polling place this afternoon, about 1PM. The poll workers said it had been slow all day due to the early voting. I am afraid to watch TV, makes me nervous to think McCain/Palin could even have a chance. I just knew they would win Georgia, and I think, the last I saw on TV, they had indeed. I don't know why the rest of my fellow Georgians do not want a change. Oh, how we need it.

#317 ::: pixelfish ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:56 PM:

For all your poll watching needs:
http://isobamapresidentyet.com/

#318 ::: ConstanceZEdwards ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:57 PM:

Lance... I'm getting the "do you need meds?" look from my spouse for having the TV on (that's a rarity in my house) and my laptop on my lap (8 tabs in 2 windows). So... yeah. Maybe.

But if you're happy, that's the key.

#319 ::: Jim Bumgardner ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:58 PM:

Lance: I've got mapping / projection software I cobbled together in Perl the past couple days to suppliment the far superior offerings which populate the other windows... :)

At least I learned something about cartography while making this stuff!

#320 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 08:58 PM:

Lance @ #307, I'm afraid I agree with your wife. Suggest you turn off the right-side laptop; you're eating batteries.

#321 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:01 PM:

Ken @282 re Lake County - I'd expect the counties with larger population to have more screwups with this and that. It'll take a few hours to get everything counted.

It can't possibly be vote suppression in a largely black county.

#322 ::: Teka ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:01 PM:

Lance #307, you're not alone. We have CNN on TV, and I have Making Light, Oliver Burkeman's Guardian liveblog, and the Portuguese TV US election coverage open in three different windows, plus livejournal.

#323 ::: East of Weston ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:02 PM:

Watching WBZ in Boston. They are showing Sununu conceding. How sick is everyone of Sununu? On the vote totals graphic they had two pictures of Shaheen!

The marijuana as misdemeanor and dog racing bans appear to have passed.

#324 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:02 PM:

At this point, I see no reason why we can't celebrate Obama's victory. Can anyone come up with a reasonable path for McCain to get to 270 EVs without PA?

#325 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:02 PM:

Lance Weber @307: I have two computers open, and a television, and a smartphone. So I think you're doing fine.

#326 ::: pixelfish ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:02 PM:

For all your poll watching needs:
http://isobamapresidentyet.com/

#327 ::: Cat Meadors ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:03 PM:

Woooo! My nemesis, Mark Ellmore, just got called as having lost dramatically!

Now stay the hell off my porch, ya pretending-not-to-be-Republican, work-from-home-taxing freak!

(Also, I really need VA's results to come in before my head explodes. The news keeps reporting "exciting local developments!" and then it's just DC & MD, and those are big fat duhs as far as their results.)

#328 ::: Julie ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:03 PM:

Patrick, I agree. Texas won't go for Obama. My red county just released early voting totals and it was 61/37% McCain. Closer than I thought it would be, though.

#329 ::: Sharon M ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:03 PM:

Julie@303:

I'm in Collin County, too - and the thought that my vote might actually make a difference this year was exciting.

It was nice seeing Texas for Obama briefly on the Talking Points Memo map, anyway.

#330 ::: Jenett ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:03 PM:

Bruce @301 - can you explain
CNN finally called PA for Obama. They're being very conservative about calling states.

The friend I'm in with in IM and I are both confused by that, because we're not sure what the basis for calling PA quite this early was, since it looks like not that many precincts have reported yet.

#331 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

PNH #314: Bosh is le mot juste.

#332 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

We have the CBC's coverage on C-SPAN2, plus a variety of maps and blogs (DailyKos, Pandagon, Huffington Post, CNN).

#333 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

MSNBC called ND for McCain. That means we're not going to win MT. Pity; I wanted that large swatch of real estate on the national map blue.

MN and WI called for Obama.

#334 ::: Nathan Russell ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

I feel like everyone else here is doing a much better job than myself of following things, etc. I guess there's still one thing that really scares me. Kerry was leading in the polls by a lot, too, and still lost because the election was stolen in OH.

I know it's next to impossible for Obama to lose legitimately at this point, but could it still be stolen?

#335 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

KS - McCain
NY - Obama
MI - Obama
MN - Obama !!
WI - Obama
RI - Obama
ND - Tossup, McCain leading
WY - McCain
AZ - Too close to call - !!!

#336 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:05 PM:

Lance Weber @307: I have two computers open, and a television, and a smartphone. So I think you're doing fine.

#337 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:06 PM:

At this point, I see no reason why we can't celebrate Obama's victory. Can anyone come up with a reasonable path for McCain to get to 270 EVs without PA?

#338 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:06 PM:

Bruce @ 324 -- Nothing that doesn't involve proving once and for all that God is a Republican...

#339 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:06 PM:

Is it 9:00pm yet?

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

#340 ::: Julie ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:06 PM:

::Waves to Sharon @329::

Collin County will start to release today's totals at 8:30 CST.

#341 ::: Jon Meltzer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:09 PM:

Udall wins New Mexico.

Democratic gains in Senate so far: +4

#342 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:10 PM:

Only Fox is calling Ohio for Obama, but...

#343 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:10 PM:

Bruce Schneier @324

Here's the best I can come up with:

How to Survive an Avalanche
If you find yourself trapped in an avalanche you have almost no chance of outrunning it. Your goal should be to ride on top of the snow if at all possible, on your belly with head toward the bottom of the slope if at all possible. This way you can steer with your hands (what little steering you can do at 80 MPH) and avoid obstacles as they come at you. Every effort should be made to stay on top of the snow.

If you get buried it is going to take a lot of luck and a quick rescue to save your life. As the snow settles after an avalanche it becomes as hard as concrete. You won't be able to move your arms or legs if they are buried. It is critical to fight panic, your air supply could be very limited and your own body warmth will be working against you. As you exhale you slowly melt the snow above you creating an airtight ice shield over your face with tragic consequences. Limit your breathing as best you can and hope that you are found quickly. Remember that struggling only increases how much air you use but use your best judgment, if you have a pocket that gives you a free hand you could work the snow around it to widen the area you can move around.

#344 ::: Major Variola (ret) ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:10 PM:

Prop 8 in Calif will be close, there are
as many pro as against holding up signs
along the Irvine Ca road I drive. Which
is conservative, ie, fail.

But watch out for the retraction of the
laws allowing inter-racial marriage.
Loonies here, some of them.

BTW, could you make SKEIN any more generic?


#345 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:11 PM:

According to the Pennsylvania Elections information site only 4% of precincts have reported. That agrees with what the NYT is reporting.

It's still way too early to be calling PA. I agree it looks good, but it's not over yet.

#346 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:11 PM:

Jenett @340: Other networks called PA long before CNN did. They were one of the last.

#347 ::: David ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:12 PM:

Bruce,

Until Obama flips a Bush state, PA doesn't matter. PA is a Kerry state.

So, no, we don't get to celebrate yet.

#348 ::: Michael I ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:12 PM:

Bruce@324

Not sure whether this qualifies as "reasonable" but looking at one of Nate Silver's projections posts from a while back, the few McCain victory scenarios that didn't involve Pennsylvania, appear to have had him needing to win ALL of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Colorado.

#349 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:13 PM:

Is it 9:00pm yet?

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

#350 ::: Steve Taylor ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:13 PM:

It's 1pm in Melbourne Australia and I'm at work watching various election maps in four or five tabs. I just want to say that it's really really really really really hard to make myself do any productive work today.

Local newspapers report that about 70% of Australians would vote for Obama if given the chance.

I'm trying not to think happy thoughts for fear I'll somehow magically jinx the election.

#351 ::: Robert Glaub ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:14 PM:

(waving to Patrick and Teresa)

I just got in from a *very* long stint as a Democratic pollwatcher in MD. Before and after work were brutal. I am exhausted and hungry. But it's a good exhaustion.

#352 ::: MacAllister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:16 PM:

With a nod to Dawno:

http://www.isobamapresidentyet.com

#353 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:16 PM:

Obama still leads in NC by 5%

If he wins here it's all over.

#354 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:18 PM:

north carolina and florida starting to look good

#355 ::: Alex Cohen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:18 PM:

Pollster is estimating the final Texas numbers as McCain 50%, Obama 47%. That's damn close.

I also note that Himes is currently up over Shays 65%-35% with 28% precincts in.

#356 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:20 PM:

Um, Michigan is showing up Red on the Daily Kos.

#357 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:20 PM:

Fox calls OH for Obama. Pop the cork.

#358 ::: Bill Blum ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:21 PM:

TPM's map in one browser window, Daily Kos scoreboard in another, TV alternating between channels... Twitter and meebo open, and a cold beverage.

All I need are chips and salsa, and that would require walking away from the news feeds for a bit, and I'm not quite prepared to do that.

#359 ::: James D. Macdonald ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:21 PM:

New Hampshire: Clean sweep for Democrats.

President, Governor, Senator, and both Representatives.


Jeanne Shaheen is giving her victory speech right now.

#360 ::: Bob Oldendorf ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:22 PM:

#324 ::: Bruce Schneier 09:02 PM:
At this point, I see no reason why we can't celebrate Obama's victory. Can anyone come up with a reasonable path for McCain to get to 270 EVs without PA?

Well, I don't know about "reasonable", but there's still plenty of time for Republican vote-stealing.

#361 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:22 PM:

I've got MSNBC on the television and NPR on the radio in the kitchen; the polls are open for another hour and a half and a couple of minutes in King (Seattle) and Pierce (Tacoma) counties; the rest of Washington is vote-by-mail. There should be an announcement of a pretty high vote count shortly after 8pm PST and then the in-person votes should come in about an hour later.

This is important because King and Pierce Counties contain about a half the state's populatin and King County is dependably the most liberal part of the state. So, I remind my fellow upper-left-hand-corner folks and interested bystanders to abjure freakouts of any sort before 9pm PST, and possibly even 10pm.

#362 ::: Nicole TWN ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:23 PM:

Arachne@356: Really? It shows up blue on MY DailyKos...

#363 ::: David ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:23 PM:

FOX NEWS has called Ohio for Obama.

Open champagne. Smoke'em if you got'em.

#364 ::: Clifton Royston ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:23 PM:

CNN is calling PA for Obama, but that's with only 3% of the vote in. So much for being conservative with predictions...

#365 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:23 PM:

Is it 9:00pm yet?

ABC (or maybe CBS) appears to be projecting McCain to win the popular vote.

#366 ::: Cat Meadors ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:23 PM:

Ooo! Fox just called OH for Obama! (Why am I watching Fox? Because I can't stand Rudy Giuliani and he's on the other channel and WON'T SHUT UP.)

Re: turnouts - I meant to mention, by 10am today, 50% of eligible voters in VA had voted, and we don't even have early voting. (At 4:30 I was 479 at my polling place, and at 5:30 my husband was 550ish, so there was still stuff going on this evening.)

#367 ::: Barbara ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:24 PM:

Given the states CNN has called for Obama, he has 174 EVs. If we assume Obama will sweep the West coast (CA=55, OR=7, WA=11), Obama has 247 EVs. He needs 23 more to reach 270. A win in FL (27) will secure a win. Otherwise, OH (20) + CO (9) and it's all over but the crying. I'm interested in alternative scenarios... trying to temper my optimism.

#368 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:24 PM:

NTY has decided to call Pa for Obama with 8% reporting - 64% blue.

#369 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:24 PM:

David @347: IA, CO, and NM are so likely that Obama wins even without taking one of the biggies: FL, OH, or VA.

#371 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:25 PM:

MSNBC has called OH for Obama. This is a flip.

#372 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:25 PM:

MSNBC just called OH for Obama!

#373 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:25 PM:

Cat Meadors @#327: (Also, I really need VA's results to come in before my head explodes.

Ditto! The NYT map shows Obama catching up; TPM seems to be updating continuously, which makes it hard to see the results.

#374 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:26 PM:

Ohio goes BLUE!!!

Game over.

#375 ::: pixelfish ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:26 PM:

Sorry about the double post. My browser hung on processing the conversation.

I'm biting my nails while trying to be zen. It's not working. Sigh.

I have high hopes for North Carolina flipping. Liddy Dole did her party no favours in the final run-up, and I know all my friends there (admittedly in the Research Triangle and Durham-Chapel Hill areas) are pro-Obama. They've been showing me pics from rallies.

#376 ::: Bob Oldendorf ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:27 PM:

OHIO OBAMA (CBS prediction 9:23)

#377 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:27 PM:

MSNBC has called Ohio for Obama, as well.

#378 ::: Steve B ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:27 PM:

PNH @354: North Carolina data looking good:
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/12622/en/summary.html

And CBS just called Ohio for Obama.

#379 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:27 PM:

Fox and ABC calling Ohio for Obama?! Holy cow...

#380 ::: Jenny DB ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:28 PM:

@#314 PNH: But it's nice to dream...

#381 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:28 PM:

BBC projects Ohio for Obama.

I want to see real counts.

No fat ladies singing yet.

#382 ::: Laurel Krahn ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:28 PM:

If any of you have DirecTV, you might want to check out channel 352 which is a special "2008 Election Mix" which shows eight channels on screen at once: ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, and BBC America. They've been using audio from ABC while I've had it on.

Useful for getting a look at what's going on and then switching to the channel you think has the most interesting coverage at a given moment.

#383 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:28 PM:

ABC--which has been behind on everything--also calls OH for O-bama. (Must be that state flag thing.)

#384 ::: Elaine Brennan ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:29 PM:

NBC and ABC both seem to be calling Ohio for Obama.

#385 ::: arkizzle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:30 PM:

Hi, just dropping in from BB to echo Patrick's:

OHIO!

#386 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:31 PM:

Nicole @362 - I hit refresh, and now it's blue. Thank gods thank gods thank gods

#387 ::: Daniel Klein ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:31 PM:

Yep, I guess that's it. I get to go to bed. Congratulations, America :)

#388 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:31 PM:

I just got a robocall from Joe Biden. They really want to make sure everyone votes, eh?

(The drop boxes will be picked up at 8pm, and you can also deliver a mail-in ballot to your county courthouse, people in Washington and Oregon, if you really haven't voted yet).

#389 ::: Fred Moulton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:32 PM:

Report on TV that Hang Seng Stock exchange in Hong Kong has opened up about 4%. So Hang Seng appears to be OK with an Obama win. We will likely see other stock exchanges will open with increases world wide.

#390 ::: David ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:33 PM:

Ohio is the tipping point. Virginia and Florida are closed, but there's almost no path left for McCain to win. Unless California falls off or something.

And Cleveland hasn't reported yet (massive Obama support area).

#391 ::: Diamond Jim ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:54 PM:

Perhaps slightly OT, but I have to vent SOMEWHERE: WTF is John Bolton doing as a commentator on the BBC?

#392 ::: Dawno ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:54 PM:

MacAllister @ 352 - thanks for the H/T but credit goes to Sam Kelly @ 91 who pointed it out first.

#393 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:54 PM:

What do you think- how long until all seriously contested states have 95 percent or more reporting? I'm afraid I won't stop worrying before Obama is mathematically certain to win based on reported results from the precincts.

#394 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:55 PM:

Here's where I get pissed. Obama has won, so CA stays home. And Prop 8 wins.

#395 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:55 PM:

Laurel Krahn @382: Wow. This is the future.

#396 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:56 PM:

I'm really hoping this is the last year Marilyn Musgrave will be my Representative. Initial results look good.

#397 ::: Rikibeth ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:57 PM:

Chris Shays on his way out in CT.

#398 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:58 PM:

Diamond Jim @391, I guess they want some, err, interesting personalities on their programm.

#399 ::: Diamond Jim ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:58 PM:

Okay, I'm a little mollified: the panel moderator (whom I've never seen on BBC World before) just slapped down the white-mustached intellectual/moral pygmy: "No, you can't talk, sir, you've been chattering the whole time these people from Florida [in a remote segment] have been saying much more interesting things."

I wish I were British.

#400 ::: donna n-w ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:58 PM:

Lauren and all DirecTV users:

If you use your directional arrows on the remote you can choose which of the mini-screens is active.

#401 ::: Steven Bass ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:58 PM:

Pollster.com map is quite nice. Mouse over and it shows which networks have called a state for who. One stop and you can close all those other browser windows.

http://www.pollster.com/

#402 ::: Dawno ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:59 PM:

Bruce Schneier @ 394 - I sure hope you're wrong - perhaps it will still seem close enough over the next hour for the after work voters to still go to the polls.

#403 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:59 PM:

Obama still leads in NC but it's getting closer.

Looks like we're going to have our first woman (and Democratic) governor too.

Dole is giving her (interminably long) concession speech.

Unless McCain wins California (0% chance), Obama will gain enough electoral votes just from the West Coast to win. If NC, VA and FL go for him they won't even be needed.

#404 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 09:59 PM:

Coolest thing on WCAX-- one of the VT electees made certain to credit Howard Dean.

#405 ::: John A Arkansawyer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:00 PM:

Rick Santorum and Geraldine Ferraro together again on Fox News. In fact, I think I see a little froth of santorum around Ferraro's lips after her sympathetic comments for John McCain.

#406 ::: Michael I ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:00 PM:

Nate Silver over at 538 just called the election for Obama.

#407 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:00 PM:

And, Virginia tips to blue on NYT.com! YES!

Now I can sleep....

#408 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:00 PM:

Polls close in two hours. Please let my fellow Alaskans have not voted for Ted and Don and The Gov.

Please.

Headed home from work now. See you later.

#409 ::: Singing Wren ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:01 PM:

I'm watching the local ABC feed in Cincinnati, rather than the national feed. There's a couple issues and a Congressional race* I'd rather hear babble about than the same filler until the national networks can call another race.

The latest update showed 24% of precints reporting in Ohio. The polls didn't close until 7:30 pm EST, and anyone in line at that time can vote. A lot of ballots haven't arrived at the Boards of Elections yet. Hamilton County (Cincinnati) is expecting to have their results tallied by about midnight.

I'm not believing any presidential results from Ohio until we've got at least 90% - whether that's precints reporting, or votes for Obama.

*A third party candidate is getting significant numbers of votes, and could well tip the race. I just don't know which way it will tip.

#410 ::: SubtleBlade ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:02 PM:

BBC have 200/124
and Florida shading to The Big O with 60% votes 'counted'
Virginia 50/50 but results swinging to thhe 'left' as against last time
ditto North Carolina

Have started my second bottle of wine, just to keep me calm.....

#411 ::: donna n-w ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:02 PM:

Sorry Laurel, (not Lauren) @382.

I had it right the first time I tried to post, but that got eaten.

#412 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:02 PM:

MSNBC has Iowa for Obama.

#413 ::: Cynthia Gonsalves ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:03 PM:

We've got one hour left here in California, please continue to send good thoughts to get the folks voting No on 4 and on 8 to the polls.

#414 ::: grackle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:04 PM:

Nate Silver has projected Obama as the winner.

#415 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:04 PM:

In a perhaps vain attempt to improve performance, we're starting a new thread and closing this one. Continue the discussion over there!

#416 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:04 PM:

Luis Fortuño seems to have won here, running on a platform of "statehood, security, and progress" (security here meaning the financial variety). Who's ready for a 51-star American flag? (But who am I kidding -- the referendum will preserve the status quo, as have all the preceding referenda on this topic.) (Still -- assuming we're still here in 2012 -- it would be nice to vote for Obama's second term.)

#417 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:05 PM:

Diamond Jim @ 391: looked to me like he was self-imploding, which is no bad thing. That's David Dimbleby coordinating, although he is a little off form to my mind. Simon Schama is pulling some nice smackdowns.

NYT has now called Ohio and Michigan.

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