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November 4, 2008

Watching the election with Bruce Schneier: part two
Posted by Patrick at 09:56 PM * 349 comments

(1) Sorry about the slow response times. We knew MT3 was hard on our server in higher-traffic situations; now we’re really convinced.

(2) OHIO!

(3) Making Light officially projects that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. Yes, we can.

Comments on Watching the election with Bruce Schneier: part two:
#1 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:06 PM:

IA has been called for Obama.

#2 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:06 PM:

Freedom!

#3 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

Luis Fortuño seems to have won here, running on a platform of "statehood, security, and progress" (security here meaning the financial variety). Who's ready for a 51-star American flag? (But who am I kidding -- the referendum will preserve the status quo, as have all the preceding referenda on this topic.) (Still -- assuming we're still here in 2012 -- it would be nice to vote for Obama's second term.)

#4 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

Obama will win the West Coast plus Hawaii; that's over 270 right there, without VA, NC and FL.

In NC the race is neck and neck; Obama leads 51-49 right now with about 60% of the precincts reporting in.

I'd really like to see NC go for Obama.

#5 ::: Lisa Spangenberg ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

OK.

I'll get in touch about seeing what we need to do to get y'all on MT 4.2 Pro.

#6 ::: John A Arkansawyer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

First! Please, dear god, first! And No on 1 in Arkansas, please!

#7 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

So, let's hear about downballot races.

There's nothing in the Minnesota papers about the Senate and House races that's worth paying attention to yet.

#8 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:07 PM:

NYT reporting (according to DGH at the next computer) that the networks are desperately trying to find a way to say that there is still a chance McCain might win so they don't turn off their TVs & go to bed.

#9 ::: evilhackerdude ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:08 PM:

I've been looking forward to this! Greetings from Germany, we're sure very happy around here about the result.

#10 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:09 PM:

I'll report on the AK races (will we be stupid enough to re-elect a convicted felon) later on tonight. Have to go home now.

#11 ::: John A Arkansawyer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:09 PM:

Okay, I'll settle for just No on 1.

#12 ::: Richard ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:10 PM:

Bruce, looking at NM on MSNBC they're showing 39% Obama, 60% McCain with 6% of the results in...yet they, with many, have called it for Obama. How does that work?

#13 ::: Tina S ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:10 PM:

Indiana, with 85.3% reporting and neither Lake nor Marion county finished:

McCain: 49.7%
Obama: 49.2%

#14 ::: Christopher Davis ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:11 PM:

To summarize how the DirecTV "Election Mix" on channel #352 (which I've been watching for a while, mostly with the BBC America audio) works:

- arrow keys on the remote to pick which of the 8 channels' audio you get
- hit Select to tune to that channel directly (leave Election Mix)

#15 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:11 PM:

SD and CO anti-choice amendments go down hard.

#16 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:11 PM:

Not drinking champagne until super duper official.

Waiting until everyone agrees.

#17 ::: Paul Harrison ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:11 PM:

Looks like Republican John Cornyn has kept his senate seat, but it looks closer than anyone expected.

However, it seems increasingly likely that the Texas State House of Representatives may regain a Democratic Majority.

#18 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:11 PM:

What do you think- how long until all seriously contested states have 95 percent or more reporting? I'm afraid I won't stop worrying before Obama is mathematically certain to win based on reported results from the precincts.

#19 ::: xeger ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:13 PM:

Overheard at the bar:

"So.. it's like Obama, 10 nothing in the 3rd... like... How's McCain even keep on playing, y'know?"

I'm entirely too amused by "US politics as hockey night in Canada"

#20 ::: ConstanceZEdwards ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:13 PM:

Lance @ 396 in previous thread re Musky Musgrave -- You've my condolences. I'll miss Udall (I'm down in Boulder County) but Polis is a good boy.

The D.Kos map says Markey's looking strong (61-33) with 32% of precincts reporting. Good job!

#21 ::: Keith K ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:13 PM:

Whatever happens, I can't tell all of you how happy I am to be rid of Elizabeth Dole here in NC.

#22 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:14 PM:

Drat. It looks as if Chambliss will be returned.

#23 ::: Rikibeth ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:14 PM:

Shays conceded in CT. Last Republican congressman in New England out.

#24 ::: Kajun ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:15 PM:

LOL! John Bolton is complaining about bias in the media in the UK and how you wouldn't get away with that in the US!

Give it another hour and I think Simon Schama is just going to smack him on the chin.

#25 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:15 PM:

My husband came home and the XY caucus has changed the television to Comedy Central.

(sob)

#26 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:16 PM:

My congressman, David Scott, will be going back to Washington. I didn't expect otherwise.

#27 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:17 PM:

21: Just don't send them back to Kansas, please! We suffered enough.

#28 ::: dichroic ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:17 PM:

That pollster.com site somoene posted (#401 in previous thread) is interesting, but what I really want is one site that shows the netwrk projecttions like polllster *plus* the actual reports.

It is interesting seeing the differences between networks, though. Of the two I've been flicking between, CNN seems to be much more conservative (I mean, in the sense of not taking risks) than MSNBC. (Even CNN is projecting an Obama win in NM, though, with only 6% reporting. Odd.)

#29 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:18 PM:

Richard @12: The networks use a combination of acutal results and exit polls. Basically, if the few actual results they get match the exit polls they've been getting all day -- and the state is pretty obvious anyway -- they'll call it.

#30 ::: Carrie V. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:19 PM:

I just started tearing up a little because until right this moment I was afraid it wasn't really going to happen.

#31 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:19 PM:

The networks are very reluctant to call FL, VA, and NC.

#32 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:19 PM:

Texas, though it will go to McCain, seems to be coming out to be much closer then expected, at least as counted so far. The figures I see is McCain ahead by 3 pts instead of 13.

#33 ::: Singing Wren ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:20 PM:

Re: #7 (Downballot races)

Ohio Congressional District 1 (Cincinnati, most of Hamilton County(west), a little of Butler County (north)): Looks like it's going from Red to Blue, and I'm glad*. The incumbent (Steve Chabot) has a handshake like a dead fish, and when I lived in that district, I regularly voted against him. If I still lived in that district, I'd have voted for his opponent, Steve Driehaus.

Ohio Congressional District 2 (eastern Hamilton County, southern Warren County, Clermont, Brown, Adams, Pike Conties, western Scioto County): The district where I currently live, and site of a 3-way battle. Historically, extremely red. Latest results from cincinnati.com show the Republican incumbent with 46%, the Democratic challenger with 36%, and the independent challenger with 17%. Uncertified results in Clermont County have the independent getting 22% in the county. So the incumbent may go back, but she may not have a majority.

*Also biased. In the interest of full disclosure, the Democratic (Driehaus) candidate is my 3rd cousin once removed. A reasonably close relative in that part of town.

#34 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:21 PM:

Denver Post just called Colorado for Obama

#35 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:21 PM:

Is anyone displaying a red/blue county by county map? I'll bet that's real different than it was four years ago.

#36 ::: Sisuile ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:21 PM:

try the NYT, I really like how they have things broken down. And they're being very conservative in stating winners.

#37 ::: Serge ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:22 PM:

xeger @ 19... US politics as hockey night in Canada

The few times that I went to a hockey game with my dad, my favorite part of the game was when they'd take a break. A machine would come around and, where scratched-up ice had been, it'd leave a trail a smooth ice. That fascinated me.

#38 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:23 PM:

Dichroic @28, what you want is nytimes.com . The "dashboard" has a tab for which networks have called what, and the main map has county-level tallies of total votes and %precincts reporting.

#39 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:23 PM:

Back from choir.

During our 8:30 break, the word went up that Obama got Pennsylvania and about 60% (or more!) of the choir applauded.

Florida sounds interesting. It would be great if Obama got both Ohio AND Florida!!!!!!

#40 ::: Vicki ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:24 PM:

Serge @ 37

That machine rejoices in the name "zamboni."

#41 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:24 PM:

Comedy Channel's election coverage is up. Way better than the ostensibly serious stations.

#42 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:24 PM:

#13 - Rock and Effing Roll! If they can get reasonable results in from Indianapolis and Gary before 11, the Old Home State could be credited with being right for the first time in my lifetime.

Steve Forbes is on TDS; "you were an advisor to Senator McCain on economic issues; he seemed to be a real quick study on that."

#43 ::: dichroic ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:25 PM:

Lorax@38 - thanks!

#44 ::: John Mark Ockerbloom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:25 PM:

With over half the precincts in PA in, I'm seeing why the nets called it as early as they did; Obama's currently up by more than half a million votes (58.2% to 40.7%).

That will probably tighten as the night goes on (380,000 of the margin is from Philadelphia, where over 80% of the precincts are in, and Obama is up 82.2% to 17.2%). But it's pretty much an unsurmountable lead, and so far that's a bigger margin than most of the polls were predicting.

I haven't felt a need to turn the TV on earlier, but Grant Park (which some of the nets are showing now) is quite inspiring. Anyone know when Obama is likely to speak there?

#45 ::: Kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:25 PM:

Caroline @ 16

What are your criteria? I'm trying to figure out when to pop the cork.

#46 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:26 PM:

I like the way the map so far matches 538 100%. Freaky. (Of course, the pale states haven't reported -- but still. Statistics are cool.)

#47 ::: John Casey ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:26 PM:

Chris Shays has conceded in CT04. New England Congressional delegation is 100% Democratic

#48 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:26 PM:

The local NBC station is reporting low turnout in Orange County (CA). This is good news for No on 8.

#49 ::: mjrt ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:27 PM:

BBC coverage has just introduced a slightly pissed Nick Robinson - after a few verbal stumbles he's done well.

Bolton and Schama have signed off and taken it outside to the car park. Shame, could easily have enjoyed a few more hours of that particular commentariat.

#50 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:27 PM:

And on a side note, the (pro) Artificial Turf referendum in Maplewood, NJ, loses, despite assurances from its advocates that There Is No Other Choice.

#51 ::: Avram ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:27 PM:

Well, clearly no question about who's gonna win, but here are the things I'm waiting to find out:

Will this election have the highest voter turnout in modern history (expressed as a percentage of either total US population or eligible voters)?

Will Obama beat LBJ's record of 61.1% of the popular vote?

#52 ::: Seth Breidbart ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:28 PM:

Richard #12: If the 39% for Obama are from districts where Obama was predicted to get 30%, and overall Obama was predicted to get 48%, then he's running 9% over predictions, making 57% a good estimate. (The actual arithmetic is more complex, but that's the basic idea.)

#53 ::: Vicki ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:30 PM:

AP is calling the Delaware governor's race for Markell, the Democrat--this is relevant outside Delaware because if Biden is reelected, as expected, the new governor will be appointing his replacement.

#54 ::: Dena Shunra ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:31 PM:

I couldn't stand the suspense so went out for a long walk and bought next year's calendar. I will mark inauguration date in a celebratory rainbow.

I think I can cautiously have hope.

I think we can, I think we can...

#55 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:32 PM:

Avram, probably yes, and most likely no.

#56 ::: brr ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:32 PM:

Bruce @35 NYT has a county map as one of their options. I saw another one somewhere, but can't find it again.

#57 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:33 PM:

Avram - No.

Why does PBS insist on putting David Brooks on the television?

AZ remains too close to call according to Brian Williams. Back to Colbert. Oops, Chuck Todd indicates the truth--that they're just pretending not to call FL.

#58 ::: Willam Ricker ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:33 PM:

CNN has counties on their state pages.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#val=FL

#59 ::: Bill Blum ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:33 PM:

I'm feeling..... enthusiastic. Hopeful, even.

This is an odd feeling.

#60 ::: Jo Walton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:34 PM:

I want Obama to win all the ones where it's close, all the possible ones, because I don't just want him to win a bit, but to win decisively and inarguably.

It's a very hard system to do that with.

And I've never seen anything quite so 50/50 as Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are looking right now.

#61 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:35 PM:

The BBC had John Bolton and Simon Schama as a debating team? That's cruel. Schama's giant brain could do in a nitwit like Bolton from inside a coma.

#62 ::: Seth Gordon ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:35 PM:

Note to the NH for Obama volunteers and staff: if you spend the next weekend laid up with the election-season equivalent of Con Crud, it's partly my fault. Please forgive me.

I want a T-shirt or at least a button saying "YES WE DID".

#63 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:35 PM:

Massachusetts seems to have voted to decriminalize 1 oz or less of marijuana.

People caught with an ounce or less of marijuana won’t be considered criminals in Massachusetts.

Voters have approved a measure to ease marijuana laws. Under the new law, which takes effect in 30 days, those caught will be forced to give up the pot and pay a $100 fine, instead of facing criminal penalties.

#64 ::: Caroline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:35 PM:

Kat @ 45: I don't know. I guess I'm waiting for everyone to be for sure. I may be up late. God, if NC gets called blue, I might just do it.

#65 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:37 PM:

I'm looking at the Star-Tribune website. Franken is up over Coleman, 43-40, with Barkley taking 16 -- 13% in.

#66 ::: Michael I ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:37 PM:

Josh Marshall just reported that Fox is withdrawing its call for Wicker in one of the Mississippi Senate races.

#67 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:38 PM:

Comedy Channel has too many commercials.

What's up down-ballot?

#68 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:38 PM:

Brokaw finally telling the truth: NC and IN should not be "too close to call" (GWB by 12 and 21%, respectively, in 2004).

Everyone trying to say "it might be tougher" for McCain to win. 22 more minutes of this nonsense. (Or will they not call CA and WA on the close?)

#69 ::: Seth Breidbart ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:38 PM:

FiveThirtyEight says Stevens will lose.

#70 ::: Dena Shunra ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:39 PM:

Seth@62: I need that button, too. Never mind the T... the button.

#71 ::: Kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:39 PM:

Caroline @ 64

Me too! I don't want to be burned again. But I'm ready for the bubbly!

#72 ::: Natalie L. ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:40 PM:

Downballot in Delaware where 100% of precincts have reported:

Jack Markell won the governor's race by 72% (very exciting, Jack is a great guy). Matt Denn will be his Lt. Gov. with a healthy margin, despite some really nasty local ads.

Mike Castle was re-elected to the House with 61% of the vote, which is actually encouraging--the Democratic challenger doesn't normally get that close to him.

Joe Biden won his Senate seat, of course. His opponent, Christine O'Donnell, had an opponent at my polling place who was hysterically assuming everyone was voting Obama (not unreasonable, I live in a heavy Democratic & minority district) and was handing out these bizarre leaflets that had anti-UN stuff on them and no indication of party affiliatiion. Also scare stuff about who the governor will appoint to his seat--it will likely be John Carney, who is not an unknown and was actually the Democratic party's choice for governor this year who was upset by Markell in the primary.

Insurance Commissioner is a big deal here, and Karen Weldin Stewart won handily, which I am sure feels like vindication for her--she ran in the Democratic primary 4 years ago and the party opted to back Denn instead of her, so it was good to see her get back up and take another crack at it.

My friend Rebecca Young lost her bid for a seat in the state house, but John Kowalko and Terry Schooley won their re-election bids.

I am sad to report that the Blue Enigma party only got 1773 votes statewide. Their mascot is a turtle. That is all I know about them.

Delaware is such a strange little state, but elections are fun here because you do get to know the candidates, especially if you get involved in the different party clubs.

On preview: Vicki@#53, which governor appoints the successor to Joe Biden is going to depend on when Biden resigns the seat. If he waits until inaguration day, it will be Markell. If it's before then, it will be Ruth Ann Minner, the outgoing governor. Either way, I'm pretty sure it'll be John Carney--the other name floating around is Beau Biden, but he's frankly not experienced enough to jump from Attorney General to Senator whereas Carney has 8 years of Lt. Gov. under his belt. If Biden waits until inauguration day, it will likely have negative implications for the seniority of the seat in the Senate, so I expect he won't wait that long and Ruth Ann will make the decision.

#73 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:40 PM:

Why is Harold Ford on my TV?

#74 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:41 PM:

Once the Wet Coast polls close in 20 minutes, everyone will call the Presidential election. They're waiting.

#75 ::: dichroic ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:41 PM:

Ken@57: "too close to call" in AZ sounds to me like a statement of screaming victory for Obama. Hell, even *I* voted for McCain when I lived there - this was back when he was giving a convincing impression of making up his own mind instead of following the party line, before he rolled over and showed his belly on the torture issue.

When nearly half of the other guy's homeboys are voting for you, that says something.

#76 ::: ConstanceZEdwards ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:43 PM:

@7: Downballot from Colorado (1.5 hours after polls closed - 15% - 38% of polls)

Senate: Mark Udall (D) 57% vs Bob Schaeffer (R) 42% - Called.
Key House: Betsy Markey (D) 60 % vs Marilyn Musgrave (R) 39%

Amendment 47 (Right to "work" -- anti-union bill) appears to be failing with 55%. Called.

The fetal rights bill (Amendment 48) is failing by 3 to 1. (Yay!)

All numbers from Rocky Mountain News or Boulder Daily Camera.

#77 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:43 PM:

Seth Breidbart @69: I can't imagine Stevens winning. Even if he doesn't think he's guilty of anything, he actually is.

#78 ::: Kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:43 PM:

Bruce @ 74

Will I then have your personal guarantee that we've won? :-)

#79 ::: Stefanie Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:44 PM:

Dan Maffei, (D), won the Congressional seat for our little bit of upstate NY (25th District). Before now, it was held by a Republican, Jim Walsh, who didn't run this year. Here's to another D in the House!

#80 ::: lorax ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:44 PM:

Ken, out here in CA and very much wanting all the Democrats to get out and vote No on 8, I would be furious if the networks called the race before the polls close out here.

Yes, in order to win now McCain would need to peel off Oregon and Washington. But you can wait another fifteen minutes -- there are some really important local issues out here.

#81 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:44 PM:

Obama up 190K with 79% reporting, according to Erik V. Olson

#82 ::: Kathryn Cramer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:45 PM:

VIRGINIA (or at least Fox says so).

#83 ::: dichroic ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:46 PM:

As an indicator of international perceptions, I'm in Taiwan, and the frst of my colleagues has already come over to congratulate me.

I've heard of articles saying that a Republican in office would be better for Taiwan, but so far everyone I've talked to plus the American DJs on the English-language radio station (guys with conservative backgrounds, one from Waco and one from northern MN) seems to be pro-Obama.

#84 ::: Tammy Coxen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:46 PM:

NPR just called Virginia for Obama.

#85 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:46 PM:

Hawaii's going to go for it's favourite son, of course, Bruce.

#86 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:46 PM:

Hawaii's going to go for it's favourite son, of course, Bruce.

#87 ::: Seth Breidbart ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:46 PM:

Bruce Schneier #77: I can't imagine Stevens winning either, but Alaska voted for him before (and Palin), so they're clearly not limited by my imagination.

Besides, the last (prior to today) candidate I voted for who won was dead at the time.

#88 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:47 PM:

Seth (#69) - Even Nate Silver has to get one wrong.

Patrick (#73) - He's doing the circuit.

ABC boldly predicts that the Dems will retain control of the House of Representatives.

Obama remains at 207; anyone else starting to think they're testing new vote suppression and just figuring no one will notice?

PBS appears to have called VA. For Obama? (now at 220; CA ends it.)

#89 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:47 PM:

#49 : mjrt BBC coverage has just introduced a slightly pissed Nick Robinson - after a few verbal stumbles he's done well.
Bolton and Schama have signed off and taken it outside to the car park. Shame, could easily have enjoyed a few more hours of that particular com

Robinson did a lot better than Rajesh Mirchandani who gave the smug John Bolton a chance to take the moral high ground and make the BBC look stupid. Bolton totally recovered from his bullying of Katty Kay a little earlier. Politicians ae allowed to use spurious gobboids to push people around on TV. Interviewers ought not to - or if they do they ought to be sure of their facts.

#90 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:48 PM:

Kat @78: We won when OH was called for Obama.

#91 ::: grackle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:48 PM:

Bruce @35 (if someone else answered this I didn't see, I scrolled from there fairly quickly) The New York Times map has a zoom to county feature for Pres., Senate, House and Governor giving vote breakdown as reported.

#92 ::: miriam beetle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:49 PM:

woo. i am so proud to be a blue ohioan (even though, as an absentee voter, i have no reason to believe they counted my ballot or will in the future). and of course, overjoyed to be an american as we turn a more indigo shade of purple.

but my husband's coming home with takeout, & i'm gonna stop watching here so i don't see any spoilers for the daily show/colbert, waiting for us on our dvr.

#93 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:49 PM:

If Virginia has gone blue, all I can say is "President Obama has a great ring to it!"

#94 ::: pixelfish ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:50 PM:

I know this state of affairs won't last long--indeed has probably already flipped--but I checked my home state of Utah, and it was 96,000 Obama to 93,000 McCain. (Went and rechecked, and now McCain is ahead by 1000, and the natural order of the universe reasserts itself. Still it tickled me pink to see Obama leading in Utah, ever so briefly.)

#95 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:50 PM:

Fox News (shudder) actually has a decent county by county option on their state maps...

Gosh, I'm starting to feel good...

#96 ::: Mary Kay ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:51 PM:

I am so proud of my faulty, stumbling, wonderful country.

MKK

#97 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:51 PM:

Nate Silver may be wrong on two -- Montana's early returns are looking kinda Obamish.

#98 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:52 PM:

If Virginia has gone blue, all I can say is "President Obama has a great ring to it!"

#99 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:52 PM:

Also, Indiana is at O 49.4% to M 49.6%. Even if we don't manage to struggle into blue country, that's still close enough to make me proud of'em.

#100 ::: insect_hooves ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:53 PM:

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!

#101 ::: James D. Macdonald ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:54 PM:

Clean sweep in New Hampshire in all the down-ticket races. Governor, Senator, and both Representatives.

#102 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:54 PM:

Also, Indiana is at O 49.4% to M 49.6%. Even if we don't manage to struggle into blue country, that's still close enough to make me proud of'em.

#103 ::: Tina S ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:55 PM:

Indiana just went blue.

#104 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:55 PM:

Michael Roberts @97: I'd like to see MT go blue, if just for the blue on the map.

#105 ::: Keith K ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:56 PM:

McRory conceded the NC Governor race, so that 's another Dem win.

#106 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:56 PM:

Oh HOLY CRAP - Obama's ahead in IN!!!!!

#107 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:56 PM:

Site seems to be working well again. Lots of you must have gone to sleep.

#108 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:57 PM:

Tina S @103: Who called IN for Obama?

#109 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:58 PM:

Kos reports that reporters have been called onto the lawn of the Phoenix Biltmore for McCain's concession. That's spelled M-c-C-a-i-n-'-s c-o-n-c-e-s-s-i-o-n.

#110 ::: Sharon M ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:58 PM:

For anybody else that doesn't have a tv handy: ABC Chicago is streaming the Obama Event at Grant Park live at
http://abclocal.go.com/wls/livenow?id=6482656

(They also have a live stream of the McCain event in Arizona.)

I get to watch the speech! (My fingers remain crossed until then.)

#111 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:58 PM:

And if Obama wins in Indiana...oh wow.

#112 ::: elise ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:59 PM:

Watching Forbes on Comedy Central's INdecision '08. Not bad, though Juan is right that the Current's election coverage is actually pretty good for a palate-cleanser. (It was some spinny magenta and blue thing with a dj, but on the other hand, there was no annoying blather with which to play drinking games.)

#113 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 10:59 PM:

Heard a great line just now: McCain's only 9 votes away from winning. Supreme Court votes that is :)

#114 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:00 PM:

Obama 49.6%
McCain 49.3%
Reporting: 92.8% (some of that in Marion and Lake)

!!!!!! I'm just speechless.

#115 ::: Alex Cohen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

ABC just called the Presidency for Obama. Woo hoo!

#116 ::: John A Arkansawyer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

Fox has just called it for Obama.

#117 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

Patrick @ 109 - concession. Does that mean there are hot dogs?

#118 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

Olbermann is almost breaking up as he announces NBC has called Obama President

#119 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

The networks call the whole deal for Obama. Grant Park goes insane.

We go insane.

Oh my god.

#120 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

MSNBC just called the election.

I assume everyone else is, too.

#121 ::: philos ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:01 PM:

BBC just called the election for Obama!

#122 ::: fishwood loach ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

1101 pm NBC calls the election!

#123 ::: John Mark Ockerbloom ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

As expected, the nets "officially" call it at the stroke of 11.

#124 ::: Tammy Coxen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

NPR just declared Obama the winner.

#125 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

Wow, that sounds difficult to take back!

#126 ::: Lance Weber ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

WOOOTTTT!!

Sing it with me now: "Nah nah nah nah, nah nah nah nah, Hey hey hey, goodbye!"

#127 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

Site is timing out here - I tried a couple of posts that never took.

I think it will soon be time to open the Tusker.

And it looks like you guys put Obama in the White House

Whatever they did in VA, IN, NC

#128 ::: arkizzle ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:02 PM:

Well done America, you did it!

The world says thanks!

#129 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:03 PM:

Nate has called it for Obama officially now. wow.

#130 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:03 PM:

WTHR has him 8,000 up with 94% counted.

TDS calls it, per CNN.

#131 ::: Harry Connolly ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:03 PM:

NPR just called the election for Barack Obama.

#132 ::: Jon Meltzer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:03 PM:

Everyone else calls it

#133 ::: Lila ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:04 PM:

Obama won FLORIDA?? Holy fucking SHIT!

#135 ::: Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:05 PM:

FiveThirtyEight called it, I believe it, that settles it!

#136 ::: Janet Croft ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:05 PM:

Oh my god!!! Wow!!! Yes!!!

#137 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:05 PM:

Okay everyone, now we read the ACLU's recommendations for Obama's first 100 days.

#138 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:06 PM:

Wayne County still hasn't reported.

I'm pretty sure my Dad's vote broke Wayne County.

#139 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:06 PM:

Lance Weber @126, what about repeating it a few minutes before noon EST on January 20, as the outgoing president appears for the inauguration??

#140 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:07 PM:

Dancing in Grant Park like it's the happiest end of the world ever.

"Signed, Sealed, Delivered."

Eucatastrophe.

#141 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:07 PM:

Okay everyone, now we read the ACLU's recommendations for Obama's first 100 days.

#142 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:07 PM:

CNN Projects Obama president!!!!!!

#143 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:07 PM:

AP just called FL for Obama.

Icing on the cake.

#144 ::: mjrt ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:07 PM:

BBC etc called it at same time. We're cracking open the sloe gin.

Meiguo jiayou!

#145 ::: P J Evans ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:08 PM:

He's leading in Montana??
I know it's less than 10 percent counted, but ... Ghu, that's something I never expected!

#146 ::: Paula Helm Murray ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:08 PM:

And Jay Nixon wins as Missouri overnor. WOOOT!!!!!

(Never thought I'd vote for a Nixon, but I don't think he's related.)

#147 ::: Bjorn ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:09 PM:

From Iceland, thank you, all who voted for Obama
I can now go to bed.

#148 ::: Fragano Ledgister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:09 PM:

Eugene Robinson on MSNBC is weeping.

#149 ::: Alex Cohen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:09 PM:

I'd like to thank the one man most responsible for this victory. So, thanks, Bush.

#150 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:09 PM:

A nation in fear
What if? What if? What if? What?
We fucking did it!

#151 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:10 PM:

#138 - Richmond votes aren't getting counted?? Then it really is OVER.

#152 ::: Ginger ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:11 PM:

This has been the best election of my life!

#153 ::: elise ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:11 PM:

I just went outside here in Powderhorn Park, in Minneapolis, just after they called it for Obama. I went out to wave my little flag and to shout "Woo-HOOOOO!!" Apparently a bunch of other people had the same urge, because I listened and heard little clusters of "Woo-HOOOO!!!" going off all over the neighborhood.

And then the nice young man that lives next door came out, and we solemnly shook hands, agreed it was a great night, and expressed hope that Franken would win.

Anybody heard yet how he's doing now? Are we close enough to say?

Oh, and once more: Woo-HOOOO!!!!!

#154 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:11 PM:

As much as I knew it would happen, I almost can't believe it.

#155 ::: Tom Barclay ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:12 PM:

The Torch Has Been Passed. I'm trying to imagine how different the world will be after this night. I'm trying really, really hard to imagine what this means for my granddaughters and grandsons . . . what a night!

#156 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:12 PM:

Now the deluge. And the down races

#157 ::: Jo Walton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:12 PM:

What a relief.

I am drinking blue plum brandy with lemonade, and I raise my glass in the general direction of the USA.

#158 ::: Tammy Coxen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:12 PM:

AP's reporting that McCain has called Obama to concede.

#159 ::: John Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:13 PM:

Time to put out the American flag again!

Oh Beautiful for spacious skies....

#160 ::: Andrew Willett ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:13 PM:

[sound of champagne cork]

Joy.

#161 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:14 PM:

Why is George Will being allowed to take on my teevee, over Kenyans celebrating?

#162 ::: Lenny Bailes ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:15 PM:

I meant that there's nothing on Google even referencing Roberts' accusation (or on the KTVU website, for that matter). I was just dutifully noting it because I saw him say it on the screen -- as whacko as it obviously is.

#163 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:15 PM:

And CO for Obama. Beyond deluge.

#164 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:15 PM:

I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that "barack" is the word for peach in Hungarian. My wife keeps cracking up every time she sees the man's name in print.

#165 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:16 PM:

I think the FL call is premature.

But why is MT so close? Or MO, IN, SC, or FL?

I expect we'll win some of these.

#166 ::: the corinthian ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:16 PM:

way to go retards, you elected a socialist president of these united states

#167 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:17 PM:

PBS reporter warns us to "Watch out for Sarah Palin."

I think he means it positively, though.

#168 ::: David DeLaney ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:17 PM:

And I just went out into our apartment's parking lot and yelled three words at the top of my lungs.

There should be more churchbells and fireworks going off, I would have thought. Even here in the heart of TN. Though I did hear sporadic repeated applause above a TV's drone from another apartment's window.

(This goes a long way towards finally completing the healing from having to go home sick from work in 2004...)

--Dave

#169 ::: the corinthian ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:17 PM:

way to go retards, you elected a socialist president of these united states

#170 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:18 PM:

No, I'm wrong. NBC just called FL for Obama.

How many EVs do we need before it is officially a landslide?

#171 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:18 PM:

Look! A troll! How quaint!

#172 ::: skzb ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:18 PM:

Michael @ 164: And if his last name were Palinka, I'd have HAD to vote for him.

#173 ::: kat ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:19 PM:

Okay. I believe it now. but I'm not popping the cork until McCain admits defeat.

#174 ::: Lenny Bailes ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:20 PM:

#`62: Ehh. Delete, see here. .

#175 ::: Mary Kay ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:20 PM:

Jesse Jackson is crying on my tv set. I'm crying too. I can't believe it. I'm so happy.

MKK

#176 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:20 PM:

CNN Projects Obama president!!!!!!

#177 ::: Avram ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:20 PM:

McCain's conceding right at this moment.

#178 ::: Matt ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:21 PM:

Pop that cork!
He's conceided!

#179 ::: Tammy Coxen ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:21 PM:

Pop away, Kat. I just heard him do it on the radio...

#180 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:21 PM:

the corinthian @169: I understand that most of America has no idea what the word "socialist" means, but the people on this blog probably do. So that taunt will probably work better elsewhere.

#181 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:22 PM:

Jesse Jackson is on screen, amidst the crowds in Grant Park, clearly overcome with emotion.

McCain is conceding. His followers are booing Obama. McCain is trying to squelch them.

#182 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:22 PM:

Are we actually going to hear -- in actual seriousness -- that an Obama win demonstrates that there is no more racism in this country?

#183 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:22 PM:

Any fun wingnut reactions more entertaining than our America-hating troll yet?

#184 ::: MacAllister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:22 PM:

Obama didn't win because he's brown, McCain - he won because he's the better man, and the better candidate.

(listening to the concession speech gnashing my teeth.)

#185 ::: Pauline ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:23 PM:

Here's a worrying op-ed piece from the NYT.

Our local radio is now broadcasting McCain's concession speech.

#186 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:23 PM:

Hey Steve @ 172 - if one of Sarah Palin's kids runs in 20xx, they'll be a Palinka -- I hope you will refrain!

#187 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:23 PM:

I apologize for my stuttering here. Sorry.

I think McCain is giving a good concession speech.

#188 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:23 PM:

@79: Awesome -- I grew up there. I'm sure my dad is disappointed.

#189 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:24 PM:

It feels so weird to have an election outcome that doesn't depend on a bunch of lawyers.

#190 ::: John Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:24 PM:

Pop the cork. He is very graciously admitting defeat!

#191 ::: Matt ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:24 PM:

I'm in tears listen to McCain's speech.
I can't tell if I'm moved by the nobility of his words, or if it's that I'm just feeling the weight come off my soul.

#192 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:25 PM:

182: That's pretty much waht McCain said, Bruce.

#193 ::: phil ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:25 PM:

The President is a... ker-lang!
The President! He's a... ker-lang!!
etc.

#194 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

Obama pulling ahead in Indiana, now 49.7/49.3% with 94.2% reporting. Still nothing from Wayne County...

#195 ::: Jack Kincaid ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

The smile on my face is going to crack it, but I don't care. How wonderful. This night shines.

#196 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

The "All Nets" number on Pollster is at 284 now!

#197 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

Dr Paisley @192: That's why I asked. I've heard it here and there -- it's a sucky meme.

#198 ::: skzb ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

Michael @ 186: Let my arm be ripped from from my body ere I cast such a ballot. Let my tongue be torn from my mouth ere I raise a cry in favor. Let my eyes be gouged from my head ere I see myself perform such an act. &c &c

#199 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:26 PM:

McSame is making Obama's win a racial issue... what a bastard...

#200 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:27 PM:

Bruce, oh yeah. It really looks like the voters decided this one.

#201 ::: meredith ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:27 PM:

Not to be a party pooperhead, but Dubya still has 77 days left to trash the place before he goes out the door.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that our long national nightmare isn't over until January 20.

#202 ::: dido ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:27 PM:

At 11:01 (just after the wireless conked out) my almost entirely Dominican neighborhood exploded. I ran downstairs to just be out there (I'm not big on making noise myself). There are firecrackers going off, horns honking and through the sea of Spanish I hear over and over again, "OBAMA!"

#203 ::: Clifton Royston ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:28 PM:

NYT just gave it to Obama. AP is reporting McCain has called to concede.

I feel like I can breathe again for the first time in 8 years.

(I still want to see all those white spaces turn blue so it's the biggest landslide possible. NC is neck-and-neck, and MT looks like it could go for Obama too.)

#204 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:29 PM:

Also, the corinthian, turnabout's fair play, since you socialists elected a retard last time.

#205 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:30 PM:

199 - Edward, I didn't interpret it that way.

#206 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:30 PM:

Did McCain really call this campaign the highlight of his life?

#207 ::: ConstanceZEdwards ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:30 PM:

Raphael @183

Free Republic is going ape on the racial epithets. Apparently, either the President-elect or the Vice-President elect was good at track and field, specifically the javelin.

Amusing... in a who removed the clutch from your brain sort of way...

#208 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:30 PM:

The weird thing is, throughout these threads, I paid most attention to Indiana, Florida and Virginia, and now it's over allthough they aren't save yet.

#209 ::: Wirelizard ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:32 PM:

Waiting for "the corinthian" to become "th crnthn" in the fullness of time.

Also worried that the hateful Prop8 is leading in California. Meh.

"President-elect Obama" sounds good, though. Very good.

#210 ::: Flemming Meier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:32 PM:

Congratulations from Copenhagen! My deepest respect goes to all you activists who gave new energy and life to US democracy! All the news sites here now declare Obama a sure winner. I hope our own Bush-clones (our present government) here will lose an election within a few years.

#211 ::: Suzanne ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:32 PM:

I am proud of my country and proud and relieved to know that race didn't, after all, triumph over reason. But most of all, sitting here feeling exhausted and wrung out by a year of not daring to get my hopes too high, I look at my children and I feel like -- just maybe -- I can believe that their future will be brighter than today.

#212 ::: Jo Walton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:33 PM:

Wouldn't it be great if Montana went blue? It's not many votes and it doesn't matter anyway, but it's such a nice big space on the map.

North Carolina and Indiana are still ever so close.

#213 ::: Steve Taylor ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:33 PM:

the corinthian at #169 writes:

> way to go retards, you elected a socialist president of these united states

Aww.... What a shame you don't feel as happy as I do.

#214 ::: albatross ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:34 PM:

Wow.

Ten years ago, someone could have taken a hell of a lot of my money betting with me about whether we'd elect a black president in 2008.

Wow.

#215 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:35 PM:

Gosh!

My Tusker is wonderful. (Its Kenyan beer. I used to live in Kenya. It is good beer. It is not Luo beer though. Did you know that Luo women smoke cigarettes with the lit and in their mouths? I didn't believe that when I was told it but I saw it with my own eyes.) I expect that a few hundred thousand bottles of it are being knocked back in Kenya right now. It is actually very good beer. Buy some if you can.

I emotionally prepared for this by reading "Beloved" today. (and yes, I cried) Those people described in the book could hardly have imagined a "coloredman" (as they would have said) being elected President. Hell, Toni and her black friends in 1983 could hardly have imagined it.

Its not that Obama makes America a better place. It is that his election shows that America already is a better place.

A change is gonna come.


#216 ::: TH ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:36 PM:

Congratulations.

Now for coffee and the start of the working day.

#217 ::: glinda ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:38 PM:

This feels to me like one of those "when the world changed" moments. The only other one I can remember that was this good was when Neil Armstrong stepped out of the lander onto the moon.

OMG.

#218 ::: johnofjack ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:39 PM:

And now the question is "how much of the last eight years can he undo?"

But at least he's not another dry drunk imperialist pig.

#219 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:39 PM:

href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-illinois.html">Silver from last week:

Jubilation if and when Obama wins the Presidency, culminating in a rally in Chicago's Grant Park that may draw one million souls. It's not a Cubs' World Championship, but most Illinoisans will take it; what kind of odds could you have gotten in 1908 that a black dude would get elected president before the Cubs won the Series again?
#220 ::: J. Random Scribbler ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:40 PM:

Wow. I actually choked up when McCain conceded... not because of what he said, though he was gracious enough. Just the relief that it is over, and there won't be some sort of dead-ender legal challenge to Obama's victory.

I'm well aware that Obama is human and faces many challenges. We all have tough times ahead. But I am so very proud of my country tonight. Flawed and divided as we are, at least most of us stood up and said it's time to turn this mess around. Thank you all for that.

#221 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:42 PM:

96.3% reporting, Obama still up by 0.3%. I think Indiana may just have gone blue. Holy schemoley.

#222 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:43 PM:

205 Laurie -- I know it's debatable, but when he leads his concession speech by basically saying that it was the black vote that won this election, I have a problem with that. Barack has an amazing following right across racial lines.

To me that was the first salvo in a future campaign to reach out to that old Republican fiction, the "Silent Majority." It also laid out the groundwork for assigning blame for his own loss, and trying to save face.

But he does this by trying to drive a racial wedge. To me that is more than a little contemptible.

#223 ::: Dan Layman-Kennedy ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:44 PM:

I'm celebrating with a glass of wine, and feeling more than a little like this.

Here's to the early days of a better nation.

#224 ::: Sam Kelly ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:45 PM:

The BBC commented on McCain's concession speech, saying "Now we're hearing from the old John McCain again, rather than the one who ran that campaign."

I like that. It would be unfair to say that he's a man eminently suited to defeat, but I think he's got a good career in history as Too Noble a Roman for This Age.

#225 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:46 PM:

I'm on the LA Times page, looking at Prop 8. There's not enough data to have any idea what's going on.

#226 ::: Ken Brown ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:46 PM:

#217 glinda: This feels to me like one of those "when the world changed" moments. The only other one I can remember that was this good was when Neil Armstrong stepped out of the lander onto the moon.
OMG.

ZOMG!

But there was the Berlin Wall (well actually the resolution of the Magya worers and peasants party but the Wall rubbed it in)

I'm old enough to remember where I was when I heard that Kennedy was shot.

And there was me watching Nelson Mandela walk out of prison on TV. Holding my little baby. That was good. Just as me watching the bombardment of Iraq on TV, holding the same baby, was scary. I cried a lot. All those other little babies getting bombed.

And now that baby is grown up and just went to bed, after she put on "Change is gonna come" and hugged me to celebrate the day.

Like, er, gosh

Virginia!!!!!!!!!!!

#227 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:46 PM:

If you look at the breakdown, we should give the credit for IN getting it right to the person who made it possible: Bob Barr.

Right decision for all the wrong reasons. I'll take it.

#228 ::: Matt ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:49 PM:

I was hoping Barr would be the difference in Georgia (my home) as well.

Only bit of disappointment tonight.

#229 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:50 PM:

Ken Brown, I agree.

#230 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:52 PM:

MN Senate race: Coleman v. Franken is absolute neck-and-neck right now... Franken up by less than 1000 out of 1.1 million counted so far...

#231 ::: Bruce Baugh ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:52 PM:

I am genuinely speechless. I've been braced for so many things to go wrong so many ways. It's true there are many potential troubles ahead but...for now, I get to relax.

#232 ::: Dave Robinson ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:53 PM:

I caught a little of McCain's speech and what I have caught is very well-spoken.

#233 ::: marty kay ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:53 PM:

From here in oz, congratulations to you all.

woot!

#234 ::: John A Arkansawyer ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:53 PM:

The president-elect is younger than I am; thus, I am now officially old.

#235 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:53 PM:

I still think McCain lost Indiana when he blew off Letterman. Of all the boneheaded moves.

#236 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:54 PM:

CA looking ugly on 8, decent on 4.

#237 ::: Patrick Nielsen Hayden ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:55 PM:

Jo Walton reports (in IM) that people are driving around and honking their horns in Montreal.

MSNBC has footage of people madly celebrating in Kenya. Well, fuck, yeah!

#238 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:57 PM:

Franken and Coleman are neck and neck -- 42% each-- in MN.

I assume we'll win OR and AK.

But no 60 in any case.

#239 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:58 PM:

@236: But SF has no results in, and L.A. proper is really low. Unsurprisingly, San Bernardino, where I live and drive past Yes on 8 signs every day, is craptastic. But we knew that when we moved here.

#240 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:58 PM:

Ok.... blinking rapidly now... Barack is taking the stage...

#241 ::: Marilee ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:59 PM:

MSNBC is showing Prop 8 in CA as ahead (click on CA map then Ballot Measures).

#242 ::: MacAllister ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:59 PM:

@Jo Walton #212

Montana has a popular Dem governor - and Baucus won again, tonight - so it's actually possible. It's my home state, and they're increasingly interested in environmental and green issues.

#243 ::: Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little ::: (view all by) ::: November 04, 2008, 11:59 PM:

speech! speech! speech!

#244 ::: Bruce Schneier ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:01 AM:

Shhhhh.

He's on.

#245 ::: Madeline F ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:01 AM:

I've been watching the Indy Star's page because at first they were the only election returns and then they were solid usefully displayed returns... http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

And I gotta ask, Michael Roberts, what IS up with Wayne County? What does it contain? How is is likely to break?

#246 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:03 AM:

@236: But SF has no results in, and L.A. proper is really low. Unsurprisingly, San Bernardino, where I live and drive past Yes on 8 signs every day, is craptastic. But we knew that when we moved here.

#247 ::: Xopher ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:03 AM:

I was going to just go to bed...but I didn't. Now I'm not sure I can sleep!

#248 ::: Nicole J. LeBoeuf-Little ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:04 AM:

When McCain mentioned Obama, his supporters booed.

When Obama mentioned McCain, congratulated him on a race well run, everyone cheered.

That seemed emblematic of the difference between the two campaigns.

#249 ::: philos ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:04 AM:

Puppy?

#250 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:05 AM:

It's quiet here in Westmount, 4.7 miles down the road.

Once again, a Democrat going to the White House has to Buy a Dog.

#251 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:07 AM:

Somebody upthread asked about "Yes we did" gear?

here

#252 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:07 AM:

Bruce Schneier @165- Montana is so close because Missoula, Helena, Butte are going heavily for Obama, and some of the smaller counties are going heavily against the guy with the summer houses. And because, if Rachel Maddow's math is to be trusted, one in 67 people in Montana (including my UM student daughter) volunteered for Obama.

The NYT county maps are fascinating in seeing how that is happening.

#253 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:08 AM:

#245 - Wayne County is primarily Richmond; right on the border of OH, solidly working class. But relatively urban for the area.

Those of us who grew up a couple counties away always considered them relatively liberal. Since we went 52-46 for Caribou Barbie, it's perfectly reasonable to figure Wayne will break 50-49 the other way, with Barr picking up the "we only vote for Republicans" vote.

#254 ::: Laurie Mann ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:08 AM:

Nicole, in fairness, there weren't that many booers at McCain's concession speech. He had a few thousand people in the crowd and probably only a couple of hundred booers. But, they were loud.

#255 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:09 AM:

#248 Nicole - You NAILED that one!

#256 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:11 AM:

Madeline F@245 - Oh, despite my Dad's historic vote, it'll break red. No question there. But it'll be a wash as far as the overall count is concerned, because it'll be half and half-ish, like the other red counties, and the total population is, what, about 30,000 at a guess, probably less these days, so even with phenomenal turnout it couldn't tip the balance.

It's a farming county, some industry that's looking pretty rusty -- typical Indiana. It's the home of Earlham College and the Earlham School of Religion, Quaker schools of long standing and the core of a massive liberal base of ... oh, hundreds. It has rolling hills of precisely the right slope to my eye, and I'll inherit about 80 acres of it in a few decades.

#257 ::: Earl Cooley III ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:13 AM:

Lance Weber #113: Heard a great line just now: McCain's only 9 votes away from winning. Supreme Court votes that is :)

All he really needs is five SCOTUS votes for history to repeat itself.

#258 ::: Arachne ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:13 AM:

338 to Some Smaller Number That Varies Between Sites But It's Far Below 200

Is that landslide territory?

#259 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:14 AM:

So Ken -- where?

#260 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:16 AM:

Earlham (Quaker college) is one of the reasons for hope. The break in Fayette and Union are others.

But mostly, the lead is now nearly 15,000 with 3% to go.

#261 ::: Steve Taylor ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:17 AM:

Is it too early for a post mortem? Or is this just the wrong thread to mention it? If so, just ignore me and I'll go blithely on my way. But...

How much difference do you think Sarah Palin made to this race? Because while I'm very very happy that Obama won, I'm also desperately relieved that there's no (immediate) risk of America having a President Palin. For no very clear reason, just thinking about that gives me flashbacks to Charlie Stross's _A Colder War_. Maybe it's the tentacles.

Anyway - congratulations and thanks to all the Americans who voted Obama in. The rest of the world is cheering.

#263 ::: Ken Houghton ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:19 AM:

County Seat of Fayette.

If all goes well, on 20 January 2009, for the first time since that date in 1985, all the States in which I lived will have voted for the current President.

Hoping the similarities end there.

#264 ::: eric ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:20 AM:

Puppy.

I'm sure that they deserve it.

Hell, make it a pony.

#265 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:21 AM:

Oh, duh -- Fayette County, 52/46. My Dad retired from Ford. Yeah, I guess from Connersville, Richmond looks liberal. But then you have Hagerstown, the classical sundown town. And the rest of the county. And even most of Richmond is not a hotbed of liberal activity. I eventually fled to Bloomington.

#266 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:23 AM:

Also, for those who wonder about the WA (and OR, by a link) votes, Northwest Cable News Network is updating regularly.

Gregoire is winning, by a comfortable margin.

#267 ::: Lizzy L ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:23 AM:

Prop 8 is 300,000 votes ahead with only 13% of the precincts counted. This is a nail-biter. I expect we won't know until tomorrow.

#268 ::: eric ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:24 AM:

Yeah, good speech.

And he worked in the gettysburg address and the declaration of independence.

#269 ::: glinda ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:26 AM:

Ken Brown:

I fibrofogged on Berlin Wall, yeah, that's the third big one in my (admittedly not all that functional) memory.

I am doing everything I can to sear this moment into my memory, forever.

#270 ::: chris. ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:27 AM:

JESR @ 266: I've been watching the Secretary of State's site, which is a bit more dismal.

#271 ::: janetl ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:27 AM:

I believe we can - finally! - declare the Bradley Effect to be imaginary.

#272 ::: Lee ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:28 AM:

Some less-jubilant news: Sean Tevis, the guy with the xkcd-style campaign cartoon, appears to have lost 52%-48%. (Scroll down to State House District 15.) OTOH, that's a damn good showing for a progressive in KS -- he outdid Obama's percentage. All those $8.34 donations must have helped. I hope he tries again.

#273 ::: Madeline F ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:30 AM:

OMG when that little old lady with the orangish suit with the white piping came out amongst all the family at the end, and Joe Biden was supporting her and she got this full view of the crowd and just looked overawed... That was when I broke down. She didn't look like she believed it until there she was. Breaking down again typing it, don't know why.

#274 ::: dichroic ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:31 AM:

CNN's exit polls are looking pretty good for Prop 8. (Er, I mean, are looking like it will get voted down, handily.)

#275 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:32 AM:

I love the smell of history happening.

#276 ::: Kieran O'Neill ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:36 AM:

Oh man. I'm really enjoying the subtle evocations of both FDR and MLK. In some ways, he's like both rolled into one. Maybe, just maybe, he will be up to the task of putting things right in your country. Here's hoping!

#248: I noticed that too. I've also seen the crowds at the victory - it's restrained jubilance and gentle tears. It's the difference between calm consideration and rabid populism. It speaks well of the U.S. that the former has won out.

#272: I'd wondered what happened to him. Oh well, maybe next time.

#277 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:37 AM:

I love the smell of history happening.

#278 ::: Matt Austern ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:41 AM:

The extraordinary thing: it went exactly the way it was supposed to. Obama won all the states that polls said he would win.

I still didn't really believe it would happen until it did, though. We realized that the race was over when Obama won Ohio, but we didn't open the champagne until the networks called the race and McCain conceded. (Well, part of that is also that we didn't open the champagne until our 2 year old daughter fell asleep.)

#279 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:46 AM:

Chris-@270 you, and my husband also; the Sec. State is the certified total, NWCN is a county clerk compilation. Both sites, though, are much better than four years ago, when they were within .1% or less all night.

NWCN for some mysterious reason has no congressional listings; NYT and the WA Secretary of State both have Darcy Burner in the lead, though.

#280 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:47 AM:

Well, after reading Obama's speech, I'm in tears. Damn, that man can talk. I'll bet he even wrote that himself -- what is it going to be like having a literate president again? I can hardly even remember!

Also: Indiana is blue, BLUE, BLUE!!!!!111!

#281 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:51 AM:

And now that Wayne County has finally reported, I'm going to get that piece of chicken from the fridge now. I'm starved.

#282 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:54 AM:

Chris, also, I poked the SS site and came up with county-by-county vote counts which are currently missing Thurston, Pierce, Cowlitz, and Skagit counties, all of which went for Obama this year (according to the NYT map) and all of which (except maybe Cowlitz) went for Gregoire four years ago.

#283 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:56 AM:

Alaska polls closed an hour ago. I'm reloading the Elections page, following APRN on Twitter, and listening to the radio coverage. Please, let Ted and Don come home. Sarah did. I'm not being unreasonable.

#284 ::: eric ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:56 AM:

…more than two centuries later a government of the people, by the people, and for the people has not perished from the Earth.

Damn Straight.

#285 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:00 AM:

I would love to read McCain's victory speech, but very glad I didn't have to listen to it...

#286 ::: Clifton Royston ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:03 AM:

I caught part of the victory speech in the pizza place where I was picking up takeout for dinner. (Yeah, like I was going to cook tonight?) Everyone there was just transfixed, watching and listening, and I was tearing up. What a speaker he is! Not in the way that an actor is a good speaker - he speaks in a very undramatic steady tone - but it's the choice of words and the conviction in his voice that carries it.

#287 ::: Alan Hamilton ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:12 AM:

Arizona was able to turn Renzi's seat blue, but that's about the only good news locally. Gay marriage is now double-illegal, and Shadegg and Arpio were reelected.

#288 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:13 AM:

Crap. I'm betting this will go to question ballots.

36% of Alaska precincts reporting

Stevens 49.32% R
Begich 45.19% D

Young 51.47% R
Berkowitz 44.06% D

#289 ::: Mikael Vejdemo Johansson ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:14 AM:

Clifton @ 286
Of COURSE I cooked tonight. Vegan curry soup. Very nice, and went well with the molasses bread that one of the students here baked, and the rice that the host of the evening made.

Cooking is always a good idea!

#290 ::: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:29 AM:

I've been out of touch since before dawn. Was pollwatching, canvassing, running errands for Dianne McGuire, our Democratic candidate for Illinois state representative in the 96th district (near Naperville and Aurora).

Last year I joined the township party organization, started learning the ropes, and got elected precinct committeeman. This is a county utterly dominated by Republicans. But Democratic voters are proliferating. Cracks are beginning to show.

After the polls closed, I brought my precinct numbers to the storefront campaign office, mingled in the party, and ate stuff. In one corner, a laptop was showing the MSNBC coverage of the national election. In another, somebody was constantly refreshing the Dupage County and Will County results pages. In the back office, the campaign staff worried over the numbers.

Eventually, McCain made a concession speech. We watched that. Somewhat later, Obama made a victory speech. We watched that with greater interest.

Our race was a nail-biter; Dianne's opponent won by 693 votes, I think. She gave a heartfelt bittersweet talk to her volunteers.

Would have liked to join in the fun here, but I was distracted (and couldn't get a connection on my own laptop).

My first campaign.

#291 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:48 AM:

California state proposition results: as of 10:40 PST (that's oh-gods-thirty for you easterners), Prop 8 is passing 53-47, with 32% precincts reporting. :: as of 10:40 PST (that's oh-gods-thirty for you easterners), Prop 8 is passing 53-47, with 32% precincts reporting. :

But it started at 57-43 with 8%, so I'm hopeful that all the conservative precincts get counted first.

And pinning my *real* hopes on the CA Supreme Court being ready to announce, "no, you can't take away basic civil rights with a simple majority; you need a constitutional revision to cut a person's potential spouse pool in half."

#292 ::: Teka ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:49 AM:

Madeline @273, I believe that lady was Biden's mother.

#293 ::: Kieran O'Neill ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:54 AM:

Lol. I've just been chatting to my brother, who's in Zanzibar, having just come from Kenya. He had the following two anecdotes:

"1) When in Nairobi I was trying to sleep when I overhead the music from the place next door keeping me up and the lyrics to this catchy rasta song were 'barack obama'
I now own the cd

2) When I was in the supermarket I had the guy look at me and say 'you're going to vote for Obama, right?'
I said yes"

(For context, we're white South Africans.)

Oh, and:

"the locals here are pretty crazy about it
I will head off to a good victory party tonight"

#294 ::: Jon ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:14 AM:

Well, Missouri is dragging it out right to the end. With 99% of precincts reporting (3498 out of 3533), McCain is ahead by only 554 votes (1,418,537 to 1,417,983). Not that it affects the outcome at this point, but I would like to see us go for Obama.

#295 ::: Dr Paisley ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:22 AM:

Same here, Jon.

#296 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:32 AM:

@291: The other hope, I think, is that the Supreme Court decision made it pretty clear that the justices felt that they had two choices when it came to ensuring equality for same-sex and heterosexual relationships -- they could either call them all marriage, or California could stop sanctioning state marriages and make all such relationships domestic partnerships or similar.

Plus, with Obama as president, we can hope to see the U.S. Supreme Court move back to the center (or even a bit left), which might make dealing with these issues at the federal level possible.

I'm still hoping that 8 won't pass. Unfortunately, a number of people (including our "Director of Institution Diversity") at the college I work at came out as pro-8, and I'm not looking forward to trying to pretend I don't despise them.

#297 ::: cgeye ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:52 AM:

can anyone confirm this? From a comment on Firedoglake:

"In front of the White House, thousands are singing 'na na na na, na na na na, hey HEY goodbye'"

#298 ::: Claire ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:09 AM:

@297: Much earlier this evening, the CBC was showing large crowds pushing up against the White House fence and claimed that people were chanting, "Bush out!" so it seems possible.

#299 ::: j h woodyatt ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:15 AM:

Looking at the turnout numbers for California counties, I'm not very optimistic about the prospects for us seeing Proposition 8 defeated. This is a real nut punch for me. Once again, I'm deeply ashamed of my fellow Californians. I'm especially disappointed in the turnout rates for San Francisco and Alameda counties.

I don't want to sound like I'm trying to take anything away from the historic Obama victory tonight, but let me put it this way: if Proposition 8 were going down in flames right now, then I would be drinking that Champagne I put on ice earlier in the evening. Instead, I cracked open the Jameson's.

Now, I'm kicking myself for not investing more in the effort to stop Proposition 8. I should have donated more money. I should have played hookie from work and used the time to volunteer. I should have been committed, not just involved. In short, I let all of you down. Again.

All of us Californians have let you down. We suck. We deserve your wrath for what we've done tonight. I'm deeply sorry for it, but let's be honest: that's cold comfort if you're one of those people whose marriage we just voted to nullify.

I wish I could join the rest of in you in celebrations, but I'm not feeling it. Proposition 8 is a disaster, and I'm just not finding a way to ignore that so I can revel in the Obama victory with everyone else. Sorry.

Oh well. I guess I need to try harder to remember that politics isn't everything.

#300 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:15 AM:

fnck.

Looks like my fellow Alaskans have bought into his "you're screwed without me" campaigning and have re-elected the felon Senator Ted Stevens.

And the probably soon to be indicted (please!) Rep Don Young.

America, I apologize and beg your understanding.

#301 ::: Jon ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:17 AM:

KSDK.com is now showing only 4 precincts still out in Missouri, and McCain's lead has increased to 4909 votes. Sigh.

#302 ::: Sarah E ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 04:17 AM:

I really don't know what has possessed my fellow Alaskans (saving present company, of course). I am honestly and completely dumbfounded. I feel ill.

Or would, if it were not for the fact that I keep bursting into tears because I am so damn happy that Sen. Obama won the presidency.

As it fell out, I was eating dinner at a nice Italian place downtown. One of the women eating near my dinner companion and I wandered back from the bar, where the tv was on, and informed my dinner companion and I that Sarah Palin was crying on national television. My dinner companion expressed schadenfreude. I expressed delight that the wingnuttiness that I had detected during her gubernatorial run had come to the fore. I really think her effectiveness as governor is hosed. Hah!

Ulmer/Berkowitz ticket for governor in 2010? A gal can dream.

#303 ::: Janet K ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:27 AM:

The sun hasn't risen yet here in the Nation's Capital but I'm awake and glowing with relief, hope, and happiness.

The District of Columbia voted 94% for Obama. It will be wonderful having him and his family (and the puppy!) in the White House. National politics is local politics to us.

The world is made better.

#304 ::: Aaron ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:32 AM:

In a a somewhat odd reversal from the last eight years I'm proud to be an American and embarrassed to be an Alaskan...

There's a lot of speculation up here about what Palin will do (or perhaps, try to do) next. It hardly seems likely that she would be content with Alaskan politics after her stint on the big stage. I bet she will try to get Stevens seat once the Senate expels him.

I agree that Ulmer/Berkowitz would be a great ticket for AK gov. I miss Fran.

#305 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:33 AM:

NC, with 100% of the precincts counted, shows Obama leading McCain by 12,000 votes.

I guess the phrase "every vote counts" does mean something. Also, Bob Barr got 15,000 votes; I guess Obama should send him a thank you card or something.

#306 ::: the corinthian ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:17 AM:

Give it two years, and you are all going to be signing - or writing - a different tune.

#307 ::: don delny ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:46 AM:

free at last
free at last

Thank God Almighty

free at last

#308 ::: edward oleander ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:01 AM:

#306 -- Aaaaaw... liddle, widdle cori done got his water taken out and stomped on...

Even assuming you're correct, that still gives us two years to get some real progress made while the wingnuts mope around the mirror to watch their collective penis shrivel...

Best start stockpiling the Viagra now, Cori darlin'...

#309 ::: Rob Rusick ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:26 AM:

Pauline @185, meredith @201: We can't relax until GWB has been shown the door, and they change the locks.

#310 ::: Paul Duncanson ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:58 AM:

Th Crnthn @ 306: Give it two years, and you are all going to be signing(?) - or writing - a different tune.

... or even singing...

You're probably right but we'd be nuts to attempt the finale of Beethoven's 9th without a lot of rehearsal. 2 years should be enough.

#311 ::: Seth Breidbart ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 10:29 AM:

FiveThirtyEight has Franken ahead.

#312 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 10:36 AM:

Give it two years, and you are all going to be signing - or writing - a different tune.

Do you mean "In two years, you'll all be devastated by the midterm results" or "In two years, you'll all be sorry about the damage you've done"?

In the first case- possible. In the second case- well, why not come back then and check how right or wrong you were?

#313 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 11:22 AM:

I went to bed last night after the midnight batch of returns from Pierce County pushed Gregoire a bit further ahead, and woke this morning to see she was at 54-46 over Rossi. Unfortunately, Darcy Burner had fallen further behind, in the old dairy-farming and logging bit of eastern Pierce County which is in WA8.

But what kept me from settling down to sleep was the scene on live TV from Pike and Broadway on Capitol Hill, Seattle hipster central, where there were thousands of happy people in the street smiling and singing and waving the American flag.

#314 ::: elise ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 11:34 AM:

Yup! Flag-wavin'! I plan to do a bunch of it. Also, work. We've got a lot to do.

And I await with mingled hope and trepidation the results of the Franken/Coleman race.

Also, I am really sorry my state sent that whackadoodledoo Bachmann back to the House of Representatives. I had hoped for better from my fellow Minnesotans, but.... *sigh*

#315 ::: Lila ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 11:34 AM:

Ken @ #253: "Caribou Barbie" is running neck and neck with "Rapture Spice" (from the Slacktivist) as my favorite Palin epithet.

I hope someone will point out to President Obama's daughters the hoofprint of the pony in the old White House elevator. One of Teddy Roosevelt's kids had the measles and was confined to his bed, so his sibs snuck the pony up to see him.

#316 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 11:45 AM:

Blue state, blue state, I'm from a blue state. A-hahahaha! Hee, hee. It took me a quasi-full night's sleep for that to sink in.

Sure, sure, competent and probably well-meaning president, dawn in America, yadda yadda, but I'm not a Red Stater any more! !!! (Until 2012, maybe, but still -- my whole life, and I'm turning 42 on Saturday.)

#317 ::: Earl Cooley III ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:52 PM:

Paul Duncanson #310: You're probably right but we'd be nuts to attempt the finale of Beethoven's 9th without a lot of rehearsal. 2 years should be enough.

Oh friends, not these tones!
Let us sing more cheerful songs,
And more joyful.
Joy! Joy!

Schadenfreude! Götterdämmer-
-ung is going to have to wait....

#318 ::: albatross ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 12:56 PM:

The crowd shots in Grant Park when they called the election for Obama were, IMO, the best part of the whole evening's coverage. The kids cheering and waving flags, the fair number of people standing there with blank stares of shock on their faces, the number of people crying silently, all that was worth any number of historic speeches and inevitable victories of the good guys over the bad guys.

#319 ::: Daniel Klein ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:00 PM:

Any news on NC? I'd like to know how big a landslide Obama won in last night ;)

#320 ::: the corinthian ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:47 PM:

I'm saying that I don't even have to wait two years to know what this country will be like. Can you say Jimmy Carter? I'm glad Obama was able to break the racial barrier, but he doesn't have the experience to be president of this country. and that's what makes me say that he's going to turn us into a socialist country with handouts paid for by the working class.

#321 ::: Daniel Klein ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:54 PM:

Corinthian: neither the teeth in your eye sockets nor your repetitive whining is impressing anyone here. Also, look up socialism. You're thinking of capitalism.

#322 ::: Raphael ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 01:58 PM:

You think that people here would change their opinion of Obama if they thought he was like Jimmy Carter?

but he doesn't have the experience to be president of this country. and that's what makes me say that he's going to turn us into a socialist country with handouts paid for by the working class.

Fascinating logic there. The "little experience" thing is one thing, and so is the "socialist" thing, but how does one follow from the other? How much political experience do you have? If you would become president tomorrow, would you turn the USA into a socialist state?

#323 ::: John L ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:21 PM:

About NC: ask and ye shall receive:

Link

#324 ::: P J Evans ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 02:36 PM:

corinthian:
Alaska is socialist. Everyone there gets a check from their state government, every year, without regard to age, income, or anything else. You'll have noticed (I hope) that their governor is way short on experience, too. Obama has way more experience than that one, and he also can think and speak coherently.

If what you're complaining about is that the country isn't going to be no-holds-barred capitalist: we haven't been like that for a hundred years. All those regulations (and programs like Medicare and Social Security) are there because no-holds-barred capitalism is a fast route to being a third-world country with wealthy (and isolated) owners and a whole lot of poor laborers.

#325 ::: elfwreck ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:01 PM:

In a true no-holds-barred capitalism, there are no police--only private security guards. And no health care for the poor... which means epidemics sweep across the country. No worker's comp, no unions, no civil rights unless you pay for the protection thereof.

I'm annoyed at how blatantly the republican party wants to bring back the age of the robber-barons.

#326 ::: Hank Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:31 PM:

> ... he doesn't have the experience ...
> he's going to turn us into a socialist country

You can't conclude inexperience causes socialism -- certainly not just by looking at Palin.

Yes, she doesn't have the experience.

Yes, she's governer of a socialist state.

But Alaska's been socialist since the oil money started flowing into the citizens' pockets.

Palin just moved into the chair as governor of a socialist state, she didn't make it one.

#327 ::: abi ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 03:38 PM:

the corinthian:

I have met many socialists, and Obama is no socialist. Anyone in possession of an internet connection and a fairly minimal level of intelligence could determine that.

I see you are in possession of an internet connection.

he doesn't have the experience to be president of this country

Experience? I don't see that McCain's experience led him to make many good decisions in the campaign, or to appoint very good people to assist him in it. If he'd had the chance to run the country the way he ran that campaign, we'd be toast.

On the other hand, Obama's controlled, intelligent campaign, strong in both contingency planning and people skills, showed precisely the characteristics that we need from a leader. That which he does not know, he seems to be able to learn thoroughly and integrate quickly. And he's inspiring: look how many people he turned on to their civic responsibilities, to the dedication to improving our nation.

Better intelligence with too little experience than experience with too little intelligence.

#328 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 04:46 PM:

I find it interesting how there's this talk of how "spreading the wealth" is socialism and so forth -- and yet, when Bush actually did it, quite blatantly and inarguably, by directly giving people $600 checks if their income was below a certain range, there wasn't a word of that criticism. (So far as I'm aware.)

I guess that's because Bush called it "economic stimulus", and because he didn't have Obama's honesty of pointing out that these sorts of things have to be paid for by taxes.

Corinthian, can you tell me if you objected to Bush's wealth-redistributing checks as socialism too, and where? Or, if not, why you think it's different?

#329 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:14 PM:

I think the corinthian is saying Jimmy Carter was a socialist. Which is really odd, because I clearly remember the 70's, and they didn't include any, you know, socialism in the United States. The only socialist-leaning President of the United States I can think of is Mr. George W. Bush. It's possible the corinthian doesn't remember that far back, but he actually nationalized the banks and handed out money to the entire populace regardless of income. Twice. And three times on Sunday.

It's possible, since the corinthian appears to be a permanent feature of this thread, that he or she could actually list some of the socialist policies he or she thinks President Obama will ram through the doubtlessly equally Marxist Congress.

But I strongly suspect that the corinthian will do no such thing, because the corinthian doesn't actually know what the word "socialism" means, and is using that Scary Epithet to avoid his real problem, which is that Obama has darker skin than the corinthian finds stylish in a world leader.

In which case, I can only tell the corinthian to Get Over It. And have another slice of this delicious Schadenfreude Pie. I've been enjoying it all day. NOW THAT I'M A BLUE STATER!

#330 ::: the corinthian ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:29 PM:

Michael - you might want to reference my comment about Obama breaking the racial barrier

In an effort to qualify my thoughts about what Obama's policies will be like, I used the term socialism. I used it incorrectly.

(Abi was kind enough to point out that I am an idiot for not using my internet connection correctly and doing my research. Thank you for those kind words, ma'am. In all actuality, I just learned how to turn this dang gum computer on.)

So, with that mistake acknowledged, I firmly believe that Obama will be putting into effect a great deal of programs that, while designed to help lower income people, will encourage the majority of these recipients to simply collect another government handout. And for the record, I don't care if they're white, black, purple or a lovely shade of Blackwatch plaid.

Bush's economic stimulus plan was a joke. I used that money to pay off an outstanding debt. It didn't go directly into the economy.

#331 ::: Xopher ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:37 PM:

Now that the corinthian (nice Sandman reference to a truly icky demon character, btw...seems to fit) has said more than "way to go, retards," I'm getting a stylistic echo that makes me think s/he may be a sockpuppet of someone else who posts here, or used to.

I don't know who, and perhaps it's wishful thinking, which is why I'm mentioning it. Does the corinthian's style sound familiar to anyone else?

#332 ::: JESR ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 06:49 PM:

[disingenuous]Why Xopher, I can't imagine who you might mean![/disingenuous]

#333 ::: Stefan Jones ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:14 PM:

Just now, seconds ago, an NPR reporter asked a bunch of guys standing around on the street in Chicago what they wanted Obama could do for them.

Their answer wasn't "handouts," the corinthian. It was "JOBS, baby, JOBS!"

Conservatives fanboys have handouts on the brain. GET. OVER. IT.

#334 ::: Earl Cooley III ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:16 PM:

His email address and truename seems to have a fairly inoffensive search engine footprint.

#335 ::: David Harmon ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:43 PM:

As I recall, Jimmy Carter got backstabbed, not least by his CIA chief (GHW Bush). And my most accounts, he was basically too trusting.

One of the many tests Obama faces will be how he deals with similar behavior by the Republican minority... but you know, I suspect that simply growing up black will have given him some useful experience there!

My big worry is whether, when that comes up, he'll be fast enough at switching from olive branch to thunderbolt....

#336 ::: Michael I ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:50 PM:

Merkley has finally edged ahead of Smith in the vote count for the Oregon Senate race. As the bulk of the remaining precincts are in strong Merkley counties (especially Multnomah which includes Portland) I'm somewhat optimistic that we have another Democratic pickup.

#337 ::: albatross ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 07:51 PM:

Hank:

Alaska no more qualifies as socialist than does Obama.

corinthian:

It's possible that you're right. But Obama's tax plan (which is the thing McCain seemed to be talking about with the "redistributionist" label) doesn't seem to even remotely fit that description. It's tinkering around the edges of our (hideously complex, ugly, loophole-filled) tax system in a way that will make it very slightly more progressive. We're really talking about a tiny tweak, here.

Further, if you look at the folks Obama uses as his economic policy advisors, you get such wild-eyed reds as Warren Buffet, Austen Goldsbee[1], and Paul Volker. If he's planning to go far left on economic policy, he's sure hiding his intentions well.

And finally, in budget terms, the redistribution that matters is Social Security and Medicare. Those are in practice almost impossible to touch, but they dominate the future budget in ways that more welfare-type programs can't hope to approach. (There's also the bailout, which might turn out to cost a huge amount, but whose total cost is unknown. Let's hope we don't end up playing Iceland at the end of this whole thing.) Welfare type programs otherwise may create bad incentives or waste money, but they're not going to wreck the budget.

I expect the main thrust of any kind of "redistributionist" program will be trying to spend our way out of the impending economic crisis, or out of the next wave of the global financial meltdown, should it come. There is not much difference between Democrats and Republicans on that stuff, to be honest.


[1] From that well-known bastion of Marxism known as the University of Chicago.

#338 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:16 PM:

albatross @ #337, the third big item is Defense. If he wanted to "redistribute" money away from weapons systems which even the services say they don't want that would be fine by me.

#339 ::: Michael Roberts ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:17 PM:

Ah. So, the corinthian, what you're essentially saying is that giving money to people with no strings attached will encourage them to become lazy parasites contributing nothing to society.

On which topic I refer you to my good friend Mr. Paulson. I heartily agree with you, in fact -- we should definitely stop the no-strings-attached welfare handouts in this country, in order of percentage of budget.

That means the military-industrial complex has to start holding their bake sales first. Then we can move on to the insurance "industry". We could yank the $700 billion back that's earmarked for welfare recipients getting billion-dollar bonuses to buy their fourth yachts.

Somewhere waaaaaay down at the bottom of that, we could talk about taking food out of the mouths of babies, which is what you're obsessed about.

OR -- here's a thought -- we could acknowledge that feeding the hungry is important, then we could actually work out how that might be done without the social fallout we all hate. There aren't any South-Side-Chicago-style projects in Europe, and yet they feed their hungry. Perhaps, I dunno, maybe it's not the principle of feeding the hungry that's the problem. Maybe some governmental transparency might be the answer instead of flailing about in a panic about socialism.

But from where I sit, the corinthian, you look pretty damned stupid, coming in here and calling us retards without even knowing Thing One about the words you're using. Apparently you voted for McCain. Wow. He wouldn't have been socialist at all, now would he? Just spend another fifty billion on his friends here and there -- but who's counting? At least that money didn't go to fund deadbeats or anything.

Moron.

#340 ::: Brooks Moses ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 08:57 PM:

Michael Roberts @339: It is somewhat of a ingenuous stretch to claim that the defense budget, as paid out to the military-industrial complex, is "no strings attached". Yes, there might be some pieces of it that pretty much seem to be, but even those are delivered through contracts that demand deliverables. And most of those deliverables are either things that actively help our national defense, or are things that were believed to have a good chance of helping and thus were requested on an experimental basis.

Whether there are inefficiencies in the system is a different question -- yes, of course there are; it's a large system, and the Second Law of Thermodynamics colloquially applies. Its a large enough system that some of those inefficiencies are pretty startling, I'm sure. But "inefficiencies" are a different thing from "no strings".

What we don't need in this sort of argument is people making absurd exaggerated-to-the-point-of-wrong claims to support points that could be made more accurately. If any reasonable person can see that you're exaggerating your support, why would they believe you if they don't already? And why will they believe anyone else, once they get themselves convinced that's all there is because its all the loudest people say?

#341 ::: Tania ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 09:31 PM:

Sarah E & Aaron - Fran has a better job at UAA, she'd be a fool to go back into politics. Fran's not a fool.

Berkowitz talks a good line, but he is a complete Casper Milquetoast. I voted for him, but I'd vote for almost anyone running against Don Young. I found myself underwhelmed by his campaign, and he had my vote as soon as he became the candidate.

I hope Ted goes down when the absentee/question/early ballots are counted. But at this point, I'm not counting on it.

Hey Serge, I'm thinking about moving to New Mexico. Any suggestions?

#342 ::: Earl Cooley III ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 10:05 PM:

Michael Roberts #339: what you're essentially saying is that giving money to people with no strings attached will encourage them to become lazy parasites contributing nothing to society

Well, I contribute sarcasm. That has to count for something.

#343 ::: Marilee ::: (view all by) ::: November 05, 2008, 11:29 PM:

Manassas voted Democratic for the first time in the city's history! However, the registrar was wrong -- only 11% of the registered voters voted.

#344 ::: Epacris ::: (view all by) ::: November 06, 2008, 04:29 AM:

Marilee, 11%? Is that an incredibly low turnout? Surely I'm misinterpreting this, could someone clarify?

BTW, glad you seem to have come thru' this last physically OK. Keep well.

#345 ::: Marilee ::: (view all by) ::: November 06, 2008, 09:50 PM:

Epacris, I'd guess it's about average for us. The city is so conservative that a lot of people never vote. We haven't even had a Democrat up for Council for decades. This may bring an uprising for the next election, though.

I'm okay, but I had PT yesterday and I now have a very scary balance exercise!

#346 ::: Vicki ::: (view all by) ::: November 06, 2008, 10:04 PM:

Marilee @345:

Do the people of Manassas not care about anything but local office? Conservative or not, they may have noticed that Virginia does have statewide elections, as well as the chance to vote for president.

#347 ::: Marilee ::: (view all by) ::: November 07, 2008, 11:04 PM:

Vicki, Virginia has gone Republican for many years. We've had some Democratic governors who get blocked by the Republican legislature. I really think most people don't worry about it because they're so sure the votes will stay conservative. This may have startled them.

#348 ::: Linkmeister ::: (view all by) ::: November 08, 2008, 02:17 AM:

Marilee @ #347, as a former resident of Annandale in Fairfax County, Virginia turning blue was a surprise to me, although Mark Warner's election to the governorship and Jim Webb's election to the Senate in 2006 were harbingers of things to come.

I'm still astonished that Loudoun County is now considered a bedroom community for DC. When I lived in the region Loudoun was all horse country.

#349 ::: Marilee ::: (view all by) ::: November 08, 2008, 09:43 PM:

Linkmeister, #348, and Warner beat Gilmore for Senator this time (to take John Warner's place) with lots of room. Yeah, I'm waiting for Fauquier to be moved in with Metro DC!

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