When I went to the AAAS conference, I sat in on part of a seminar on AIDS. I wrote up my notes on my blog, here are some of the highlights. I think they illustrate very effectively why fighting AIDS is paramount for anyone who values the goal of lifting the developing world out of poverty:
Stephen Lewis, UN Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS, and former Ontario MP, spoke about the necessity of fighting the epidemic on every front.
...Because AIDS hits the sexually active, it's decimating the working age population in severely affected countries. This was hammered home by the story of a family his team visited in Uganda. A man and his two wives, all over 70 years of age, had raised nine children. Eight were dead, one was dying. They'd left a total of 38 grandchildren in the care of these three elderly people.
In a revelation sure to make eyes bulge in some conservative circles, African women are at the greatest risk of infection from their spouses. The ABC (abstinence, be faithful, condom use) recommendations commonly doled out won't keep them safe. Mr. Lewis stated flatly that the greatest barrier to preventing AIDS was gender inequality.
Thomas Coates, PhD, of UC San Francisco presented on the topic of preventive measures. I only made a very small portion of the lecture towards the end, but one point he made helped build a more complete picture of the difficulties of prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa. He noted that the infected men most likely to engage in risky, unprotected intercourse were married. The likely profile was of a man married for under a year, presenting no symptoms, and prone to having unprotected sex after consuming alcohol.
Helene Gayle, director of the global health program at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and former director of the USAID AIDS program, talked about the emerging picture of AIDS. Her overriding message was that there's a great deal that can be done to halt the spread of the disease.
By 2010: Current projections anticipate 45 million new infections, 28 million of which could be prevented if action is taken now. 25 million children are likely to be orphaned, and 15% of all children in Sub Saharan Africa will be among them. The rest of the world will outstrip Africa in new cases. Life expectancy in Botswana is expected to drop from a current high of 74 years, due to growing economic prosperity, to a very low 27 years.
Challenging assumptions: Currently, there are 14,000 new cases daily. Roughly half these new cases are women, and around that many of all 14,000 cases affect 15-24 year olds. Also, with the increase of a misperception that AIDS has been conquered, a resurgence is possible in wealthy countries whose rates of new cases were declining or leveling off. The next wave of new cases will likely come from Nigeria, Ethiopia, Russia, India, and China.
Intervention: One of the cheapest interventions possible, condoms, cost between $11 and $17 for each case averted. (There are many ways to avert new cases.) This spending on condoms and various barrier prophylactics averages out to about $1 per year of life saved. Only 42% of at risk individuals have access to condoms. Around $9.2 billion would be necessary in 2005 to aggressively treat AIDS and combat its spread. ...
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