Let me wrap Occam's razor in tinfoil for a moment and see how it cuts. My guess is that OBL is buried under many many tons of rubble somewhere in Tora Bora, where it is impossible for anyone to ever definitively prove that he is dead. This would mean that all post-Afghanistan war video and audiotapes of OBL are fakes. That the CIA has called them genuine is understandable, since it has a strong reality-based contingent which wanted to emphasize the threat posed by Al-Qaeda, (as opposed to Saddam Hussein's Iraq.)
But it's not in the interests of anyone who might know the truth (if it is the truth) to tell this story. If Bush held a press conference and said, "OBL is probably dead, but we can't be sure," he'd be snickered out of the room. Neither would the CIA (and by extension the intelligence community) or Al-Qaeda get good PR out of it.
As for Crawford, I guess we'll see. I'm sure Bush is up to no good though.
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