The most recent 20 comments posted to Making Light by Shalom:

Florida is much harder to tell, by counties, how much Obama is out-performing Kerry (Indiana is pretty clear).

I think it's because the early totals in Florida are all from early voting -- 0% precincts in, but tens or hundreds of thousands of votes counted. Therefore *who* turned out for early voting (versus who is voting today) is really going to skew the results.

And from pre-election surveys, we figure about 60% of the total turnout was from early voting (versus low 20's in Indiana).

So it will probably be quite a while before we have a clear picture of the results in Florida (for a change...)

Indiana is looking good

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

Indiana is looking good

I've been comparing the partial county totals with the margins '04. Kerry was down by 21 points then, so on average, Obama needs to do at least 21 points better to win the state.

So far, for most counties with >10% precincts reporting, he's doing about 25 points better. It's remarkably consistent around the state.

And that's before the bigger Chicago-centric population centers start to report, where the turnout operation will have made even *more* of a difference.

Bruce, thanks for inviting us all to hang out here. And thanks for being even more optimistic than I am, it makes me feel better.

I'm with you on the states going to Obama, except I think we'll miss MT and ND. And voting problems in St. Louis (as always) will just barely keep us from MO. Total of 380 (including NE-02 -- just to help enliven those civics classes).

Popular margin: 9 points, 53.5 vs. 44.5
Though my bottom-up state-by-state spreadsheet totals to 7.5 points, 52.9 vs. 45.4

For the Senate, I think Franken will fall short, thanks for Barkley. Martin may even lead in GA, but there will be a run-off. I agree, no MS or KY (dang!) -- Obama doesn't have the kind of turn-out machine in either state as the campaign has built elsewhere.

For the House, expected-value computation gives 261 D's in the 111th (30.5 pick-ups, 5.5 losses).

But a bunch of potential squeakers gives us a 267 total (one vote shy of a triple-digit majority), plus the runoff in LA-04. Some highlights:

Close (or favorite) wins: CA-04, CO-4, CT-04, FL-08, -21, -24, and -25 (Go Joe!), ID-01, MD-01, MN-03 and -06 (that one should help with your desire for more civilized discourse), MO-09 (but not -06), NV-03 (but not -02), NJ-03 and -07 (but sadly, not -05), NM-01 (finally!) and -02, NC-08, and for a grand finale, WY-AL and WA-08.

I'm not expecting them, but potential surprises are NE-02 and CA-46.

We hold all the governor's mansions and pick up MO. I've got some predictions on initiatives too, but this post is already too long. It looks like we should have plenty of time to celebrate throughout the night -- before we rest up to start the hard work of actually *implementing* all this change we believe in.

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