This is one of the big reasons I'm a pollworker -- I'll have absolutely no time or energy for a freakout tomorrow. By the time I get home to drink my well-earned chocolate beer and watch returns, my primary emotion is going to be OMG!exhaustion.

I recommend this approach. Also, in NJ they pay good money ($200!).

Present the Presidential Door Lock Drill.

Speaking as a liberal (well, at the very least, liberalish) Hoosier living in Germany, I'm currently enjoying the novel experience of being sort of a hard centrist compared to my German friends. This is in comparison to when I was living in Indiana where I was regarded as a mad, bomb-throwing, crypto-socialist. However I digress. Throughout my young life (young in my opinion anyway) I've been consistently been driven crazy by two liberal propensities: The circular firing-squad and Private Frazer Syndrome ("Doomed! We're all doomed!"). Is it irrational that I want to fling large quantities of nerf stones at all the bloggers who have already begun cataloging the manifold ways that President Obama will be a disappointment.

("We're doomed!!!")

Doctor Science, it's $80 here in Hawai'i, for a 14-hour day.

Linkmeister:

NJ unions are *very* powerful, so we get paid like a good union job -- $200 for at least 16 hours (5AM to 9PM+). The national average seems to be more like $100.

That Scalzi poll-watching kit is awesome. On one hand, I definitely understand why so many liberals are so worried - the elections of 2000 and 2004 must have been traumatic, and the contest between Obama and McCain is very much a referendum on progressivism vs. the continuation of modern GOP.

On the other hand, it's kind of frustrating to watch people so cowed by pessimism that they can't allow themselves even a glimmer of hope, lest it might be snatched from them. Thus, all the comments I've seen about how the Republicans will somehow win this anyway, despite McCain trailing badly across the USA.

Linkmeister, based on the national average posted by Doctor Science, I pessimistically say that $80 for 14 hours is typical for Hawai'i - work harder, make less. At least the weather is nice?

I stood in line at the UH Campus Center for 1.5 hours on Saturday to vote early. They had 6 electronic booths and, as one of the pollworkers said to me, it's like baseball - take as long as you want to. It took me about 2 minutes. Last night I had dinner with one of my sisters and her 12-year old son, and we talked about the candidates and the issues. My sister was still undecided, so I pulled up Andrew Sullivan's Top Ten on her computer while she was on the phone with her (deeply conservative but will not say who he absentee voted for) husband.

Over at the co-op, some of the members were still mired in the "but if he's elected he'll be assassinated" panic.

m.k. @7: And so what if he's assassinated? Yes, obviously it would be really bad for his poor family, and we'd lose the chance to have someone I think would be a really great president, but Biden seems entirely competent. I see no reason for panic about this -- apprehension, maybe, sure. But not panic.

John Scalzi, of course, was on this beat days ago.

Not to mention Ta-Nehisi Coates.

I live in a 'Red state' that's trending pale pink. It's a toss-up here in Jawjuh, and the usual right-wing suspects* (I defy anyone to read Jim Wooten or Luke Boggs with a straight face) have been sounding a bit desperate in recent days. Still, I confess to being nervous in spite of the polls.

* Even Neil Boortz, the Louse of the South, seems to think that Obama has it wrapped up, which is extraordinary.

Brooks Moses, my standard reply: What if he isn't?

Crayola doesn't have the 'flesh' color anymore, but the Beginner's Bible Coloring Book that Teresa particled a month or so ago called for the "Flesh of Christ" color, so I'm guessing there's special Christian crayons.

Jeffrey Smith (12) - I suspect that Christian crayons would be a bit of a disappointment. I went into a Christian store in Indianapolis, and do you know, they refused to sell me a single Christian.

m.k.: What if who isn't what? Obama isn't assassinated, or Biden isn't competent? Is that a reply to me, or to them?

dlbowman76 @13: Oh, dear. What will your poor lion eat? He'll starve!

The "ZOMG we're all doomed" mindset is nothing new to those of us who remember what it was like to be lifelong Red Sox fans prior to October of 2004. That kind of thinking is just way too easy to fall back on.

For the pessimistic, there are none but pleasant surprises, right? :}

Brooks Moses @ #14: it's my reply to those panicking over the Obama assassination scenario. My apologies for not being clear on that.

The panicking old hippies tell me that I'm too young to understand, but as you said, Biden seems competent.

mk, it's certainly a glorious day out here north of Pearl Harbor.

Yes, it would appear the wage is another example of the Paradise tax, but then state government is strapped and getting more so by the day, so why are we surprised?

Brooks Moses (15) - I know. The poor lad's been feeling terribly Löwe lately.

All joshing aside, isn't it interesting how much people enjoy assuming terrible things will happen to them? It's almost a perverse auto-schadenfreude. I don't understand that pleasure...then again, I don't understand Calvinism either, and many people who are far smarter than I am subscribe to that doctrine.

Different jokes for different folks, I suppose.

Fragano @ 10: Wow, Boortz is actually admitting it? I have newfound respect for the man.

Okay, no, I really don't. My dentist inevitably has the radio tuned to him when I'm getting my teeth cleaned, and the Louse's voice is irrevocably associated with the pain of getting my cavities drilled.

Hi, I am new to this blog. My daughter JennyDB turned me on to it and I like what I am reading.

It seems to me that perspective is everything. It was Niels Bohr that said, "The opposite of a fact is a falsehood. But the opposite of a profound truth is likely to be another profound truth". In other words, there ain't no black and white.

Anyway, today is November 3rd and my husband and I don't see eye to eye. He just sent me ANOTHER email AGAIN, telling me what I need to know to make the RIGHT decision. He likes to put posters in the back of his car too. So here are the three videos I received from him followed by my three responses to him. Obviously, we experience the three videos completely differently... it's perspective. So I guess we could call this My Notes To A Conservative

1. Video One

The first one... you have forwarded to me before. Civil rights=investment of formal rights in disenfranchised people. He is saying that this is one step but the legal process did not accomplish economic rights which are also a concern... He ends with, "in some ways we still suffer from that". I agree with that. And it is true that the courts are not structured in a way that can accomplish economic shifts. Obviously, he desires an economic change, and maybe that's what you disagree with? I don't think I do disagree. I don't want to "punish" success. I believe it is in everyone's interest that the huge disparity (resulting from capitalism as an end game) is reduced or compensated for in some way. I do not think the market is dealing with this and I don't think it CAN deal with this. Improved "economic access" can be brought about with an improved educational system (that works), with access to basic health care, with energy research and development that benefits the whole community and with the institution of regulations and standards in depressed economic areas (where poor people live) that improve water quality, air quality and access to life enhancing resources (in other words, clean up our inner cities).

2. Video Two

The second video... You might be disappointed to hear this, but I did not hear one word that offended me. I was not appalled by any remark made by him or Michelle. Actually, I believe their words were informed... by the truth and if anything, they are honest and brave enough to say it. Apparently these words resonate with many Americans! What they are referring to are many of the foundational/fundamental worldview type issues that are best addressed/named. Americans can refuse to acknowledge mistakes and insensitivities, whatever... and not learn or improve. Or we can humbly acknowledge and become immensely better. There is no shame in that.

3. Video Three

The third video is touching and I respect the kid's point of view. That one is all about perspective. His sacrifice is not a mistake. But I think the war itself is a mistake. It failed to accomplish the presumed objective of a safer world. There was another course we might have taken, a missed opportunity for more noble action. That choice was not the boy's to make!

Neither you nor I will make a wrong decision in our vote David and I would never characterize your decision as wrong, even if we vote for different candidates. There is a little (maybe even a whole lot) of George Dubbya in all of us. Now will you please stop sending me videos?

Miss Monica

I am finally permitting myself to say to other people, We're gonna win this thing. I confess, I go in and out of panicking liberal mode.

As for the assassination thing: I've thrust it deep into the recesses of my mind. Not going there.

@MissMonica
The 3rd video link for some reason is no longer active on YouTube, but here is the same video active: Video 3

The lyric in the title has been bugging me since I first saw it, and now I've got it.

Nicely done.

The checkout clerk at Safeway noticed my Obama button a couple of days ago and blurted, "Oh, I wish I could vote for Obama, but I'm afraid he'll get assassinated, so I'm voting for the other guy."

I smiled and replied, "You know, I imagine Senator Obama knows more about the risks of running and getting elected than you and I do. And if he's still willing to take that chance, then I'm willing to give it to him."

"Huh," she said. "I never thought of it that way."

Who knows, maybe I helped swing one more vote away from the other guy.

Me, I'm a little nervous, but I'm planning to put that energy to good use tomorrow; I just asked my boss for the day off so I can volunteer as a driver for those who tell the phonebankers that they haven't dropped off their ballots yet (I'm in Oregon; no actual polling places here, just drop boxes for tardy mail ballots).

For some years Crayola has sold 8-color "multicultural" crayon and marker sets. I've rarely seen them in stores, but they can be found at or ordered from teacher supply places. The advertising copy calls them "a realistic palette", but that's realistic in the Crayola world.

Obama's grandmother just died. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/03/obama.grandma/index.html

#27: That's so sad. If she'd just hung on a couple of days . . .

I'm sorry to hear about Obama's grandma.

In other sad news, Forrest J. Ackerman is very sick. Pneumonia and congestive heart failure. He's 91. And was there for the beginning of everything.

I'm one voter who was so scarred by 2004 that I haven't allowed myself to believe any of the predictive polls this time around. When I went to bed that night four years ago, it looked like Kerry was assured of a victory....

meredith (#16): Summed up by Rob Corddry here after the 2004 ALCS. "Something could still happen. Umm, there could be a forfeit. Or the pennant could go through Buckner's legs, I don't know. Derek Jeter could fly counterclockwise around the Earth really, really fast until it's the night before like Superman did. It's the Yankees, Jon. They're always pulling s--- like that."

Ursula L (#27): That's incredibly sad; I wish she would have been able to celebrate with him. (One thing that touched me about the New York Times article about her was finding out that Obama called his grandmother the same thing that I called mine.)

Pat #25:

Another possible response (although I sure do like yours) is "I'd be much more afraid of what happens if someone assassinates the other guy".

Tracie (26) beat me to it. I have with my very own eyes seen the packages of multiracial crayons on sale in the gift shop when I was touring the Crayon plant in Pennsylvania, back in the early 90s.

Why do you guys keep tempting fate?

dlbowman76 - Yay Hoosiers in Germany! I used to be one.

Selbstschadenfreude.

I had to learn a bit of German for a totally useless (but very geeky) advanced degree.

I think part of the "We're going to lose!" panic is due to a liberal and Democratic overinvestment in the belief that Republicans are Absolutely Evil Criminal Masterminds instead of what they actually appear to be, narrow-minded and not particularly bright privileged white people.

One needs worthy enemies.

This is just wonderful:

There's no one as Irish as Barack O'Bama!

Will white racists vote for Obama? Obviously not.

But will some "ordinary decent" white folks get into the polling booth and find themselves unable to cast their votes for a black man? Well I guess some will.

On a much smaller scale it has been observed in Britain (strongly) and the USA (rather less so) that white people who don't live around black people are less likely to vote for black candidates of the party they might normally vote for than are white people who DO live around black people. For example black candidates in outer suburbs of London seem to do worse with white voters than do black candidates in inner London (assume a whole discourse about "white flight", which is probably more relevant to some US cities than to London).

Forget the "Bradley effect" - if this behaviour was reproduced on the much larger scale of the US Presidential election, which goes by states, (and I have no idea if it will be) then we would expect Obama to do rather worse in states with relatively large numbers of low-income whites and small numbers of African-Americans. And conversely we'd expect Obama to get more votes than the opinion polls suggest in relatively prosperous states with large numbers of African Americans.

So the hypothesis will be tested tomorrow. Evidence for it would incluse McCain doing better than the opinion polls suggest in states such as Iowa, Oregon, New Hampshire, Idaho, Vermont, Maine, Wyoming, North Dakota and especially Minnesota. (crudely based on a plot I did of average incomes by state against proportions of African Americans)

If that theory does apply it might be good news for Democrats in the midland east-coast states (Pennsylvania/Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey - all of which they are expected to do well in anyway) but also in the Old South in the suburban penumbras of Washington, the Research Triangle and Atlanta. Obama might do better than polls suggest in Virginia (which is now an above-average income state), North Carolina and Georgia, not just because black voters are more likely to vote for him but because if the hypothesis is true (and I have no idea if it is) well-off white voters who are used to living alongside black people might be less likely not to.

We need to bake sweet potato pies as good luck rituals.

Obama and Sweet Potato Pie in The NY Review of Books.

Be sure you read the last half of the 1st section to have some sweet potato pie.

I had so many plans for tomorrow. But this bug has laid me so low it is going to be rough even voting tomorrow if the lines are as long as predicted.

My particular district is filled with young people who are voting for the first time. For some reason I'm thnking they are all voting for Obama. But even if they're not, there are a lot of people living here!

Love, C.

Ken Brown @38: It's obvious that white racists won't vote for Obama, you say? One of the former Grand Dragons of the KKK would disagree with that.

And, if there's anything more bewildering than a photo of a Klansman in a hood with a big Obama button, I'm not sure what it is.

Certainly white racists will vote for Obama, for pretty much the opposition reason all those Kansans vote Republican:

hurt their (our) pocketbook, and they'll swallow their (our) pride. Or as someone at fivethirtyeight said, "We're voting for the N*gg*r."

Knowing the alternative is worse, you do what you gotta do.

If Philadelphia is still standing and not under martial law tomorrow night, I'll think about believing. Until then, there will be a lot of spitting and cursing; good thing tomorrow night is supposed to be relatively warm.

Lizzy L @22: I am imagining (skipping over the details and difficult spots) that he navigates 2 terms successfully, and gets nominated and confirmed to the Supreme Court in the 2nd term of his Democratic successor. Justice Clinton welcomes him gleefully.

#13 ::: dlbowman76
...I went into a Christian store in Indianapolis, and do you know, they refused to sell me a single Christian.

You tried to buy a single Christian? Didn't you remember that they only come in heterosexual pairs?

No offense to anyone who walks the walk of Christianity, as distinguished from spouting selectively from Leviticus.

Besides, Obama's father's neighborhood witch doctor says he'll win.

Nah. There's plenty to worry about this election but, barring disaster, Obama is going to win tomorrow.

Ken Brown (#38): if folks answer honestly when polled, though, there won't be a big difference between the polls and the voting. The "Bradley Effect" issue is whether the polls are systematically wrong because of people saying they'll vote for someone that they aren't actually willing to vote for.

We'll see how things go. Nate Silver thinks the effect's already accounted for in the polls; I'm slightly less optimistic, but I hope he's right. (Or even that there's a "Reverse Bradley Effect" in some areas.)

If by "reverse Bradley effect" you mean "people who were never very enthusiastic about voting are showing up in amazing numbers" I think it's a real phenomenon. Today, on my way home from work, a bunch of young men were out on their stoops grilling and shouting "Obama!" "Obama!" to passersby.

Or do you mean the "I'm not super comfortable with Black people but Obama is so professional and competent and I am embarrassed to be grouped with the racists at Palin/McCain rallies" effect? Because I think that's out there too.

Though I have to say, it's hard to separate McCain's mistakes from Bush's legacy, in general.

Rob Rusick:

Justice Clinton welcomes him gleefully.

According to today's New York Times, she has passed along the word that she does NOT want a nomination for the Supreme Court--she'd prefer to take a crack at health care again.

Bruce @48 - ugh. Well, she can't do worse than last time. When is some brave soul going to screw up their courage and say the main problem with American health care is our parasitic insurance "industry"? (When will somebody stand up and say that calling parasites an industry doesn't make them an industry? Yeah, financiers, I'm lookin at you.)

So -- on another topic -- I've lined up the tabs on my browser before going to bed so I can just refresh tomorrow and spare myself as much time as possible to actually work. I was wondering what everybody else here will be watching. I've got 538, MakingLight, Crooks and Liars, AMERICAblog, the Sideshow, and Talking Points Memo. Just curious.

Also: 1.9%. I'm not too worried. In 2004 I stayed up too late, then on the day after, we went to the beach and I backed into a tree and busted the whole window out of the van. I don't see van damage in this year's election aftermath.

Ken Brown @38: That hypothesis, it seems to me, was already tested and rejected in the primaries. In that case, almost everyone was voting for candidates of the party they'd normally vote for.

I seem to recall that, to the extent there was any pattern, Obama did better in states with either very many or very few black people, and worse in states that had a medium number of black people (it was hypothesized that this was because racial divisions were more raw there).

But this tended to show up in the polls; it wasn't some secret systematic Bradley Effect thing. Obama was as likely to outperform as to underperform his polls. As it happened, one state where he underperformed the polls somewhat was New Hampshire, site of the famous early primary, and this was why the Bradley Effect became a huge media narrative through the whole campaign.

Teresa: That has been on my mind for the past week. And I have been saying it to people /frequently/. Thank you for linking it, because I am going insane over here. (In Boston. Superstitious? Me?)

Teresa @ 33

This year I have decided to spite all my superstitious forebears, and not turn around 3 times and spit, or any other stupid thing to allay the fates or the gremlins or whatever. I am by damn going to see Barack Obama elected President tomorrow, because that's what we have all worked for and hoped for. I can't say I'm not nervous about it, but I absolutely refuse to let those SOBs take away hope.

And even if it doesn't happen, and McCain somehow pulls it out of the fire with the help of Rove, Darth Cheney, and all the demons of Eblis, I will still have hope, and I will get up on Wednesday ready (hangover permitting) to do whatever's necessary to return this country to its people.

Screw superstition. We're gonna win this one!

I want to know what what/if Mike McConnell testified about election tampering that kept the minion of evil placed in the White House with the rigged results of the election four years ago....

(And I still want to know if Associated Press ever provided the information it claimed it was going to provide regarding guidelines of what it considers allowable for bloggers and such to quote from AP stories and what it regards as applicable basis otherwise for bludgeoning with lawsuit... )

On the subject of faith, hope, and related matters, I've taken the liberty of quoting Our Hostess here.

#42: Justice Clinton welcomes him gleefully.

#48: According to today's New York Times, she has passed along the word that she does NOT want a nomination for the Supreme Court--she'd prefer to take a crack at health care again.

Why assume it was her? Bill's got a law degree, too...

Rosa @ 47: The "reverse Bradley effect" I've seen mentioned is referring to people who've stated publicly that they intend to vote for McCain/Palin, due to social pressure or whatever, but end up voting otherwise. Sure, that KKK Grand Wizard guy may be willing to go public and say he prefers Obama, but I imagine that some of his buddies may not be so forthright about being so appalled by McCain that it overcomes their distaste for Obama.

FiveThirtyEight.com now has McCain with an almost 1 percent chance of winning.
That's the same chance your fighter has of getting 18/00 strength after rolling the 18.
Mind you ... that's WITH the Dungeon Master watching.

Now that I've nerded up this thread sufficiently, I'll be on my way...

#57 Joel Polowin - oh, that makes sense. Actually, it makes me wonder if all the Republican parents who have confessed to my liberal friends that they're voting for Obama have let their own friends know, or if they just called their liberal offspring to tell them.

The DC Metro area superstition is that if the Redskins win the last home game before the election, the incumbent (or his party) will win the presidency. The Redskins were apparently tromped last night, so the superstition says Obama wins.

Bruce E. Durocher II @48:
It may well be possible to convince her (or Bill) that they could do more good in the Supreme Court. G-d knows we need to undo the damage there.

Paula Lieberman @54:
No, they didn't; they backed down instead, thoroughly humiliated by the almost unanimous reaction to their attempt. If other news outlets had followed suit, they could have gotten away with it....

Regarding the whole "doom, gloom and disaster" outlook, I offer a piece of Australian culture:

SAID HANRAHAN
by John O'Brien

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
In accents most forlorn,
Outside the church, ere Mass began,
One frosty Sunday morn.

The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock, and crops, and drought,
As it had done for years.

"It's lookin' crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it's cruke, me lad,
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."

"It's dry, all right," said young O'Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.

And so around the chorus ran
"It's keepin' dry, no doubt."
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out.

"The crops are done; ye'll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-o'-Bourke
They're singin' out for rain.

"They're singin' out for rain," he said,
"And all the tanks are dry."
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.

"There won't be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There's not a blade on Casey's place
As I came down to Mass."

"If rain don't come this month," said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak--
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If rain don't come this week."

A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.

"We want a inch of rain, we do,"
O'Neil observed at last;
But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
To put the danger past.

"If we don't get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

In God's good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.

And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.

It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-o'Bourke.

And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn't stop."

And stop it did, in God's good time;
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o'er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.

And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o'er the fence.

And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey's place
Went riding down to Mass.

While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.

"There'll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

John O'Brien

(My apologies for the length, but it works best without editing).

Joel Polowin @ 57

ctll, th rsn lt f ...

Oops, sorry, just came from the disemvowelling thread, and my fingers need to be shaken out of the habit. Start again ...

Actually, the reason a lot of skinheaded and hooded types were giving for voting for Obama was that they think once a black man is President, all the whites will wake up, grab their guns and their lynching ropes and run out to take back their country. Instant race war.

Boy, will they be surprised when it doesn't happen. They might even have to make a reassessment of how real human beings behave.

Bruce @63: Well, given the choice between the small reassessment of "people are even more sheep than I thought" or the big reassessment of "people can coexist" ... I don't hold out too much hope, really, if they haven't figured things out already.

Chad Orzel:

Why assume it was her? Bill's got a law degree, too...

Mainly because (with the exception of Harry Truman bringing Herbert Hoover onboard to help with getting aid to Europe after WWII---a damn smart move since Hoover had risen to prominence doing the same thing after WWI) current Presidents tend to avoid appointing ex-Presidents to government jobs. I'm leaving out Shrub's use of Dad and Clinton since those were clearly supposed to be very short-term jobs.